Not just now but it was rocking us in the October and November forecasts. It busted spectacularly. LR models aren’t very accurate...even the best ones.
This was the point of my discussion a few weeks ago concerning LR and MR threads. Climate models, and LR sensible weather models are so often wrong to the point of using them for anything serious makes a forecast more inaccurate. One could probably do better using the George Costanza method and picking the opposite of what they say. It almost seems like flipping a coin has better odds.
According to the Googles it snowed on September 3rd, 1961 for the earliest snow in Denver history. I think pretty much all the NWS and recording keeping folks use the end of August for the end of Summer.
Wow, we missed that first one. We had some mist today but not measurable. It was indeed a tropical downpour here but it just lasted maybe 5 min....or even a bit less.
Ditto. And that is what she said.
To add to this using MDT as the location, 3 of the top 4 snowstorms, amount wise, in history have occurred before February 1. So early snow is not always lighter snow.
Eh, I guess its the big game hunter in me but getting 40" of snow in bites of 3-6" is not a "winner" at the end of the day but I can certainly see how others would see it that way. I have been back for two full winters now and have only had to shovel 3-4 times of which the highest was 8" . When I said a few years I was thinking back to 2016.
I was thinking we were probably 5-6+ coming into the summer depending on locale. But for our yards, crops, and really the water level we are not even because the extra rain came when there was much less evaporation going on so when it started going downhill it feel off a cliff. Assuming Cashtown's 28" through Aug 31 but taking my locale into consideration we have only had 7-9" of rain here since May 1 so say 8". That means we had 20" of rain when we least needed it and 8" over 4 months when we needed it most. Result? Farmers filing claims for crop damage and wells running dry.