Bubbler86

Hour 90 of the 18Z Icon is nothing short of an all out Ice Storm. Temps in the mid 20's with Sleet and or FRZA falling. This is after a nice thump of snow.

After we got past the GFS I think every other numerical model I have seen has indeed been pushing the SLP through VA (or even more south in the case of the Nam).

A good thump either way and really interesting question of whether anything gets thrown back as the panels would have gone on. Quite a convoluted scenario. Just about everyone who posts here cashes in. Pitt, Williamsport, PSU in Northern Maryland , even Central MD people.

The 18Z NAM is going to cause some to really put their thinking caps on. Brings what I can only describe as a double barrel low in the south east and lower Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon. Initially the northern piece is making a drive for our west but as Nam progresses it centers lower heights on the piece moving through the South East. It ends at 84 with 1022 LP in South Carolina and precip around the Mid Atlantic has lightened up and become scattered. Most here (and N Md) get 6-8" from that first thump waiting to see what the second piece does. I will add that I can only surmise that the scattered nature of the precip at hour 84 is due to what would be the dry slot from the dying former primary northern low as it scoots south of PA.

LOL

We are going to go out and try to visit the Curve this spring. I like trains but probably not on the same level as you. I need the shift as well so yes we are going to get it. I identify with the LSV because I have lived much of my life there but technically I am a bit south and west of it so while that EC map has people like Carlisle getting over a foot I am only getting 6-8" so for this specific issue we are in the same boat.

LOL. I figured you meant training people but I chuckled when I saw your first sentence. I am sure you have been to Horseshoe Curve several times.

So you work for a railroad?

You are right and I did the same thing as you but miscounted the blues. Thanks!

Add to the pile of less phased solutions...the JMA. Sends the SE corner of PA above freezing for a bit but still a major winter storm. 1.5 to 1.75 of qpf.

Check out deep thunder from the MA thread. No to this.

LOL, man you have been great but PLEASE do not stop your vacation for us.

Pitt actually does quite well with that map.

The mean is pretty wound up but does go south of us.

It is sounding promising. Not driving a low up west of PA.

Yea, you guys need a large Miller A. I bet you get screwed by B's all the time.

Yoda posted them. Obviously a better ending than the GFS.

And Mag, you are the MJO expert for our forum and others as well so it is always interesting to read your thoughts on it. It is fun (or can be for some) to play the model flipping game some days but the MJO forecasting is hard core Met stuff. In this case if it stays in 4-6 too long it is going to ruin our supposed big hurrah to winter.

Working from home this week so have time to scan through for these models...here is an overachiever for Thursday.

The site where I am looking at the UK is a bit hard to make out things but it appears to keep the whole column below freezing for the whole state as it pertains to this weekend but a bit hard to read so hopefully someone posts the maps.

Just read in the MA forum that the UK is holding tight to it's less phased solution and taking the LP into VA.

I also suspect that whatever is depicted on any given model, the surface temps of many posters here will struggle to turn this into plan rain (except the situation where the low goes west of PA...then we are into the 50's). Regardless of what trends show the word is that PA is in for a complicated winter storm. If you have read a few of my many posts the last few days you may have noticed I am hoping for a more snowy solution vs. trying to hold on to FRZA with 1/4" an hour rain rates so some of my posts are slanted that way. And yea on the CMC I noticed it was quite west but the 540 line stopped advancing between 90 and 96 when the coastal started to influence the situation.

Try to find some gems in the rough here....CMC/GEM is still close to a lesser phased solution. We are still in play here.

In this case, and I think you spoke about this last night, it is all about the phasing. Last night the models tended toward a strung out/separate WAA type situation and today they are beginning to phase back in the midwest. Whatever happens is surely not what the models show now but I guess I am looking for some type of trend away from the amplified solution.