Bubbler86

Yea we are just living life on the edge here though...for the LSV and neighbors. The NAM had been coming in as one of the less amped models up until now. I think this run is very similar to the Icon from 18Z with warmer surface temps. Most of the southern tier of PA goes over freezing for 4-8 hours.

No doubt. No matter what the NAM said it was just an interesting compare to the 18Z. Would have been more fun if it trended less amped vs. more.

The radar maps must be a bit misleading. They go in 3 hour increments and there is only decent snow in one of them...must be snowing hard at the start of the previous one and up until the end of the one after. Still grasping at straws to call this a good run...

Strange but the NAM snowfall map is much snowier than one would have expected so must include quite a bit of sleet. Congrats Carlisle

I am not staying up for it but the Euro tonight is a key where it comes to trends. The Nam changed but its 18Z depiction was not likely to happen anyway.

The Navgem was not good earlier either. We need the convoluted, multiple low structure from the 18Z Nam to have it score for us here.

It lost the elongated look from 18Z and has a stronger SLP two states further North.

LSV has lost the Nam for tonight. At least as far as snow is concerned.

It looked questionable at 18Z as well until it started transferring to the southern vort.

Thanks, it did come in with that same double barrel look before jumping off the cliff.

First model of the night, the Nav-Gem, torches us. Not that familiar with its tendencies. Low crosses Central PA.

That was one reason I never did it. Makes one get practice at describing things though!

GGEM/CMC is also wet for the LSV. Glad we have the Euro and especially the Nam.

May I ask, do you do the hobby stormvista subscription or is there something better?

LOL. You saved me some time, thanks.

The new GFS just started running so maybe it can uncancel it.

Not sure it is much different than what the other models do since this is an elongated almost double barrel situation. It is not as much that the Low is moving wonky, the model is just keying on different areas of it at different panels. Makes it appear to go the wrong way at times. Some emphasize a coastal wave taking precedence while others, like the GFS, keep the flow coming from the southeast longer as they emphasize the northern piece. This is why the Icon shows the low going well south of us yet we still lose part of the column...the low is both south and north of us in my humble opinion.

Runs the low right over us or slightly East. Into the 40's.

It has not started off well through 72. In fact through 84 the GFS is an all out rain storm again. New England Special. BUT the way it gets there is similar to the Icon just a massive difference in surface temps.

RE: The Nam.

I know I need to zoom in sometimes. I am actually working and posting some of this stuff at the same time so I get lazy!

Yea there is no doubt we should be open for anything including an all snow scenario. I still think it interesting to discuss the apparent results of the current model.

We are moving toward the relatively rare 'Double Winter Advisory. We would have an active WWA for Thursday night at the same time as an active WSW for Saturday.

Here is the snowfall map. These maps are just for posterity sake. If this were to play out many of us would not be on here posting about it since we would be trying to stay warm with no power.