Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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What we really need is a high pressure to magically appear in South Eastern Canada and make the next Low decide to lateral the ball off to the South and East coast instead of bumping bellies with the high.
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It is so weak it basically washes out but 700MB maps show it going south of us through southern VA and eventually "re-energizing", if you can call it that, when it gets into the Atlantic.
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Seems to me that this is a Saturday and Saturday night event with the faster depictions. A little left over rain or snow flakes as the cold comes in Sunday AM.
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Thanks I did peek at it. If we had true arctic air to work with we would be in a much better position but with our fairly mild air we cannot survive a southerly wind the whole time a storm climbs to our latitude. We need the transfer to lessen the damage.
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The trajectory is from the SW vs. going under PA. Allows more time for southerly wind to scour our column.
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It would be a shock if the Euro is anything other than a brief period of snow and sleet into flooding rains. Game is not over...still 48 hours but today is not going to be good it appears.
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These depictions of LP's driving into SW PA will really cut down the freezing rain fear for most of the state.
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Unfortunately we do not have any room for NW movement (snow) so the UK is probably going to be an ice storm. We need it to be 200-300 miles SE of the GFS.
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The North American models shut this forum down. I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time. Right now all we have is the Axis Japan and Germany (Until the 18Z name, LOL).
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The Canadian is going to torch us. Disappointing a bit as I one that is trend watching would have to say north at the moment.
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JMA stays on our team though 850's break freezing east of I81
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Icon=Talking about what kind of backup power source GFS=Honey, did you wash my shorts? I want to wear them this weekend.
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The GFS is not going to be like the Icon. LOL. 540 Line is already well up into Pa at 54.
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The American Dr. No will be here shortly. It is quite far north at 48.
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We have a propane gas fireplace as a backup. Quite handy though if I close the flume the whole way one does get a bit of smell from the burning propane.
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Just to clarify my statement was far eastern PA as in Philly and north but Icon does have some back end for Lancaster. The snow fall and precip maps are not out yet so I was guesstimating on the intensity of the radar maps.
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I think if one wants the public to stay on their toes it will all depend on what the Euro shows. We love looking at different solutions and trying to meld them into list of possibilities but the media is Euro or bust.
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Hopefully you are not trying to multi-task and are also posting on "another kind of board" right now. LOL
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Icon drops a snow bomb on far Eastern PA and NJ as the low is departing. Probably 4-6" back end.
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That's a good safe call right now.
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Icon is very similar to the 6Z Nam FWIW. The LP falls move South (well transfer really) and much of PA never gets above freezing. You can actually watch the orientation of the air flow change using the 2M temps maps mid storm.
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Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump.
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It is quite simple to my eyes...it keeps changing where it wants to put the focus of the lowest pressure falls. If it keeps it north then Northern Mid-Atlantic stay with a strong south win almost the entire event where the better solutions showed the southern vort being the more primary feature and changing the orientation of our winds as it pulled under us allowing the CAD to win out. DP's are great as the event starts so just a matter of how long we see flow from the south.
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Yea that was why I was smiling. It showed a similar evolution to the primary last night and still put a foot down for the northern LSV but Mag posted a more accurate map showing it was really only a couple inches. Apparently TT snowfall maps have an issue near changeover lines.
