I do not want to step on any Met's toes but would it surprise anyone at this point if that northern vort really did minor out and the southern vort takes over even farther south than the Nam or GFS show it. Definitely a convoluted situation.
GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression. All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements. Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual.
Not much north of the turnpike...some south but still a crippling hit considering the cold afterwards. Majority of eastern 2/3 of PA is hit with over a foot....S/E Lancaster and back a little less.
I think you are shoe in for 2" at this point We are around an inch as well. I do not measure as scientifically as you do but this one is easy to measure.
The ironic thing is that people want him to put their towns in his big snow zones. As bad as his temper is people love his forecasting. That dude called me at my house one time back in the 90's.
Well TT is stuck loading the FV3 but I can see 2M temps at 60 and they are in the 50's in the eastern part of the LSV so not going to hold my breath on the other panels.
I actually check every map and think of you, at least the last day, before posting it. We are just as likely to get a lot of rain as snow right now ourselves.
Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end. Supports the WSW issued. Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good.
It is not out on TT yet. Rgem is and it is wet or icy with 2M up in N Pa. I am not sure I remember any Canadian run being at the front of a trend too often.