Bubbler86

At least the first 12Z model did not ruin the fun of watching the others :-). And on this point, the Nam has not really changed at a lot since it got within 84 hours. The GFS and Euro have jumped much more.

Definitely not. If it stays cloudy and only gets to 33 or 34 the roads will be better but we still keep our pack!

Yes, for a good 6-10 hours though you never know how CAD will play into that. We need that first impulse to not get so far north and drag its ugly warm temps with it.

Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point. Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good.

Yea, my premise/hope for snows here would be less phasing and the southern Vort taking over sooner which would stop the massive influx of southerly winds.

End result I think for most of LSV is 3-6" of snow then slop...possibly even rain. Whole LSV goes above freezing verbatim but much of the precip is gone as we dry slot.

It is trying to transfer/decouple. Panel 39 it focuses on the southern vort then back to the northern vort the next panel. Still think it is indeed a tad warmer overall.

Storm also appears faster which can play games with comparing panels.

Still looks like it is trying to go below us. Most still frozen well into the event. Snowfall map is going to be juicy but again this TT map will include sleet.

Starts snowing in earnest Saturday afternoon.

Its only out to 27 on TT and it is way north but could still transfer.

LOL, funny as the Euro map is also close to the numbers.

If mentioning this for the Euro map....a lot of that is rain down here.

It has been much faster on the NAM, GFS and ICON. Finishing up earlier Sunday AM (later for you).

Mostly paid sites but I saw it on another forum. Here is what I saw below. You can tell it is way north by the dry slot coming up toward southern PA.

Hopefully the 6Z Euro is not the trend. Going to need the Euro to bust on this one.

Going to get me this weekend. Based off how it looks now I would only expect 1-3" before change over. Euro seems like a plan rain storm. Need that low to transfer earlier!

I am the most southern member of the forum so probably some temps differences.

Not very cold out this AM. 31 here. Snow compaction last night makes it hard to measure but guess 1.5 with snizzle falling right now.

Good Morning... Scanned a few models and all looks the same as last night.....status quo for big snow thump on the colder models, EURO, FVS and RGEM get us into the 50's.

One more map. The Baby GFS. an I81 special. Screws me but also screws Cashtown so throw that impossible garbage out. We bought this house knowing we would be getting cashtown like ratios.

I think most schools are delaying two hours so the storm did its deed. This 1-2 snow has been consistently called on everything, except the hdprs, for a week now so lets give some credit to the short rangers. The hate I see for the Nam is so misguided at times as well. I do not want to go into any split model battle with the Nam against me.

UK maybe a tad south. This would still be a big mix in LSV.

Not so sure a solution shown by the NAVGEM, just not as extreme, should be totally disregarded at this point. That is not necessarily good for us as it could be weaker and south but the Nam and Icon have been toying around with the early transfer idea for a couple days now. If we had true arctic air in place, not just lingering near the US border, this thing would probably be bouncing down to Florida at this point and we would be praying for a phase instead of against it. Edit-The idea here is little to no phase just a juicy area of qpf traversing the mid and south US. Highly unlikely at this close of a range but no phase is no phase...

So it is snowing right now, probably going to snow again in 48 hours...cannot possibly again next week, can it? Front stalls after the early week cutter and this...