Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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This is all from round 2 and does not include last night. I will post round 3 when it comes out. -
Yep, NWS should give me a WSW!
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Here is the NAM snowfall map for tonight...whether you like snowfall maps or not it is pretty representative of reality for this predict as the taint line is very small...it is mostly rain or snow. @Voyager is hopefully not flying home today.
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12Z Nam is defintely not going be all snow in the southeast LSV. The 15 hour column chart shows a good idea of the where the rain snow line would be...slightly to the SE of the blue
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The latest HRRR, thinks those 4-6" totals tonight will be over the Lancaster county crew. Forget the snow totals here just where the line of heavy snow is. If the Nam stays as is was earlier I would still think Lancaster mixes some.
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Everyone is saying that but I blew my snow forecast total with it being so amped up now. I thought it would add to the totals but not to the tune of 4 or more inches foir those west of the line!
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I will be defintely be here today unless there are fires at work that pull me away. Have to spend some time with my wife tomorrow so will be sporadic myself. I only have weather.us for the EC so not nearly as nice as Daxx but I can try to steal info from the MA :-). 12Z Nam is only 30 min away! Edit-There are some other posters who do PBP at times. @CarlislePaWx, @Superstormand of course, @Blizzard of 93
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Yea, it seems the better forcing went slightly north of me here and then veered south. That was suggested on the RGEM last night. We actually may clean up tonight as well. If the Nam is right we get 4-6" here tonight. I think everyone is still in the game for Sunday :-).
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Actually I took that out. That is a 12 hour qpf map. That is all from tonight.
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American model wise, I think the GFS did so poorly last night, timing wise, that I am just looking at the Nam and HRR this AM for tonight. Check out this qpf map. Ratios will probably be less than 10-1 but whomever stays on the western side of the rain/snow line could get warning level snow. My forecasts from yesterday are going to bust way low as I thought this coastal was going to just be a lawn coater. Did well for the first event but my post said both events combined so if this verifies, fail for me.
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There is something about the orientation of my house being about 200ft up South Mountain and the "plains of Hagerstown" to the south west where it is extra windy here. I woke up and thought it hardly snowed because the driveway was mostly clear but realized it had all blown off. It is gusting to about 20-25.
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Ended up around 2.5" here but excessive blowing so had to measure in the most protected area. Driveway is mostly clear from being blown off.
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Whoever ends up 5-10 miles north of the rain/snow line on Sunday is going to be on here yelling "pouring" and "fatties" a lot. Rgem cut back on total qpf for wave 1 this evening. I think we can all agree that the GFS has done terribly on temps lately but pushed LSV up into the 40's after a fairly moderate rain storm tomorrow night. Yuck.
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Differences between the GFS and Nam, this close, are just not understandable to me. Nam is wrapping up at 7AM tomorrow and has basically shut snow off in the southern LSV while GFS is in a full swing moderate snow for the same area at that time period.
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Great post and great to have a met chime in and keep us straight laced. The thing about the 0Z Nam, at least for the LSV , is Wave 2 ends up being the big dog anyway for that area. Not a fun 3 days to try and forecast. Wave 2 is really the "coastal" of these and has the biggest potential to over perform I think.
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The LR HRRR is also favoring York and Lancaster getting the business. Not extreme like the Nam but that is two 0Z's suggesting Wave 2 may be a real threat.
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Some sleet and slop at the start of tomorow night but I think even being cautious that is at least 4" more (from tonight) for York and Lancaster...rates overcome temps.
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Yea, just saw that. LSV is Named. Could be quite the weekend.
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The Canadian Meso really want to give that "I have seen us get 6 from this situation before" Horst statement some backing. Not sure where he lives but this may be right over his house. It sends a bowling ball of higher rates and forcing right over south PA tonight.
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Yea on the GFS, that storm is one fast mover and right where much of the LSV would want it for the heaviest snow even with its speed.
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I think it really looks a lot like the Euro from a day or two ago. I think much of the difference between the Nam and say a better solution for Sunday, like the Icon, is the second system (Friday night) and how it progresses. I think someone mentioned that today...maybe Nut...that the Sunday solution is going to be made or broken by wave 2. Wave 2 needs to be our block.
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That is a bit of an old wives tale in my opinion...Nam's depcition of tonight was there 84 hours ago. If someone gave me $100 and said put it on the 84 hour Nam or the 24 hour GFS I would choose the Nam. Here is the Nams forecast for tonight but 78 hours ago. That is far back as pivotalweather would go.
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Nam is not the good guy for Sunday right now...not for a large chunk of PA.
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See, now things are getting more and more interesting. People are getting paid? LOL
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Is this to suggest that Daxx is a met?
