Bubbler86

Well @CarlislePaWx had been posting about the HRRR cutting back snow tonight and the Nam has followed suite....huge cut for LSV except far S/E. Close to be a non event for many since 1-3" events are indeed getitng ho-hum.

PBP is moving in a new direction.

Euro does change most of the LSV over near the end Sunday night Surface temps are not overly cold at any point of the storm. One thing with the 12Z suite is that although this is not going sit over us for 2 days it is still shaping into a 10-12 hour storm which is not too shabby.

And I should have said 6-12 for all but the FAR S/E, sorry. I am bad about concentrating on the Franklin, Adams, York, Dauphin and Cumberland area.

Euro snow map finally showed on the MA. This includes tonight so take ehhh....2-5" off this to estimate the prog's call for Sunday in the LSV. Seems like a decent 6-12". I will psot one for further up in PA if I see it.

I am guessing you mean Sunday? Looks good for Lancaster tonight. I would think for tonight that NWS's 2-3 is too low. I would go 2-4 or 3-5 in their shoes.

Here is the Euro snow depth map from before and after tonights snow. Pick a random city...Lancaster goes from 2-4 to 6-8 so pretty healthy jump.

Favorite thing I have read all day. Somehow a not so correct rumor of the NAM being "out of range" has seeped itself into the main stream way of thinking and to me it is just a rule from some Weenie Handbook and if I had to guess it the book titled 'MA Thread's Answers when the NAM is not good to us'. The 84 hour NAM is wrong a lot but so is the 84 Hour Euro and most certainly the 84 hour GFS. The 84 hour NAM is a tool to use and watch for trends. The NAM certainly has a bias, qpf totals are usually too high, but being wrong at 84 hours is not one of them.

The CMC, which did fairly well with last night...a bit over done...is 2-4 tonight, 8-12 Sun, and then another MECS next weekend that is more concentrated a bit east. This is for the LSV. Here is the final talley map just for fun.

LOL. I enjoy doing it when I have time. @daxx obviously holds back on the model worshiping a bit more than I do but I enjoy seeing them all and using them to make a decision on a forecast. They are wrong soooo often that one can never take them verbatim so I do not spend a lot of time looking at the soundings maps because it will change in 6 hours...I more look for trends.

So there you have it...and old Fashioned EUS/Wright Weather/#neweather model PBP. Just less analysis and more model copying as there are so many more models now and I have to do some work. Lol.

Here is the FV3 to make you feel better! This is Sunday storm only.

GFS for Sunday storm is more a below the Mason-Dixon line thing as to WSW criteria stuff though maybe Lancaster would get a WSW If the Euro does not agree this gets thrown out in my book.

And FWIW, GFS for tonight keeps much of Lancaster sloppy but otherwise similar to other 12Z's in a 2-4" snow for similar areas as the others. Edit, really when looking at Pivotal it keeps much of the LSV sloppy. Focuses more on the MSV and NE. Far NW LSV does ok.

If flying SW I would be a bit worried. Both because of the snow and their penchant to ground flights early and often.

Rgem is just like the NAM and RRRDrps for tonight...drier than Nam but still 2-4" with an extreme gradient in far SE LSV. RGEM is the same as the RRRDRPS except a differet resolution I beleive. Both from up North. Maybe they are the same all together?

Yea, I keep calling it the Monday storm to people off line but I am way off with that statement. Good we will get to see the snow during daytime but less chance of the roads "caving" fully if rates are not enough.

This is wave 3. Nam suggests start time around Noon Sunday and running until around Midnight Monday Am so around 12 hours..

The SR Meso Canadian (goes by many names depending on resolution...Herpy Derpy, Herps Derps, RRR Derps) is very much like the Nam but a little dryer (for tonight).

Icon is more of a slop storm for tonight. 1-3" where it does have some snow which is mostly western LSV going Northeast from there. Some sleet for southern LSV.

Well the map is a bit under done in my opinion. Sometiems snow fall maps are over stated well this one is understated. If we get 10 hours of moderate snow with some bursts over 1" an hour I would expect 12"+ but the maps is more of an 6-10" so not a Hecs. This is for Sunday only. Column stays cold enough for snow through all of PA, except Philly, most of the storm.

The NAM snow maps are going to be close to a HECS I am guessing. It is a monster in both intensity and length. This map is 10 hours into the storm!

No doubt. Both of the next two storms are hour by hour for the LSV. No one is safe from snow or rain.

We are going to like the Nam for storm 3. It is flatter.