Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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RGEM is indeed still a mauling for S/E PA and S/C PA. Consistent with keep one area of pressure falls much longer into the event.
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I am FINALLY getting the boxed Christmas stuff out of the garage. I have a stray cat or two I will let in there if we end up getting a foot or more of snow. But yes beautiful day.
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LOL, that is a good idea. Keeps hopes alive that it can happen at any point.
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As long there is the chance of the double barreled structure I personally feel a bit worried especially for me way out here.
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That is 12Z
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I did not check others Ob's but over here it is a beautiful day pre storm. 42 and little to no wind. Needed a nice day like this. Edit-Boy the Nam is really going out on its own right now. I use it quite a bit but have to assume it is off course with putting the pressure falls way out into the Atlantic.
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Both 12 and 18Z Nam starting snow an hour or two earlier in the Western LSV. Add on the normal early start and we could have some 3-5AM start times over here.
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Rgem's area of lowest pressure basically sits off the S/E VA coast from hour 48 to 75 and deepens into the 980's. It makes its second transfer in 3 days to the NE coast at hour 75.
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Rgem rails on the same areas Nam screws. Meso mayhem.
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Definitely a good run for those north of route 30 in the eastern half of the state. Technically I just barely get Warning level snows here due to taint and dry slot but not worried about it.
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In my eyes the good news from the 12Z Nam is that it lessens the effects of the coastal low trying to reform/split off the New England Coastline, like the 0Z Nam showed last night, when it stalls off to our Southeast. That dry slot still punches part of the LSV in the gut.
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Rgem about doubles up qpf over nam for Southeast one third of the state
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Looks like the low does not "split" like on the Nam which would make that position an LSV special!
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It appears to be the same dual structure system we have been seeing for a few days now. One piece of it appears tucked while the other is east of Mass. Goes to explain the fairly pedestrian qpf totals for a SLP sitting just to our S/E.
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I am on my phone on TT so the 850's have not updated yet but the dry slot was a bit of a surprise.
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Not saying good or bad but very different. Actually a lot of big snows do mix the whole way up to CTP.
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Mix to CTP and dry slot. Hmm...
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Wow. Usually the big ones feature precip totals going up during the storm. Hard to go up from there.
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Did not happen without Pics.
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Whether it is due to it being a Miller B or other factors I am not the final solution will ever be modeled correctly so I still am of the opinion that anyone in the southern half of PA is open to 12+ inch's right now.
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According to most people the whole Nam is a tease. Every other model can jump around run to run and people take it seriously but almost every post about the Nam on the MA is proceeded with 'I know its the Nam but...". I looked and cannot find verifications scores on Meso's but I would be surprised if the Nam was not number 1. Decent WAA on the Nam this run.
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Snow always seems to be more blue on the Nam maps via TT. Not sure why....just a coloring oddity I guess.
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Isn't that what the B stands for?
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Someone is @Cashtown_Cooping in
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Miller B fun. Not sure we could trust anything 48 hours out.
