Bubbler86

38 degrees with a DP of 26 here now so what limited ice treat my area had has passed. Snow Pack is going to be down to piles by evening.

Because every model is woefully incorrect longer than a few days out so they are all just as good as the other. Even the Euro though it seems to jump a bit less vs slowly change to where it is no where near where it was a week before.

Someone could have slipped on that so close call for you guys!

And the FV3 hits you guys with 3 snows in the next 7 days. Dynamic pattern between trailing lows and clippers but something to track.

I looked for snowfalls of 10" or over in that Millersville thread I posted and the last 9-10 years does come in first. Quick scan so could be off by one on any given decade 2010's-7 2000's-3 1990's-4 1980's-2 1970's-4

Here is an interesting link from Millersville. Just change the date portion of URL for the decade. Quick scan on the 70's, 80's and 2000's shows 90-100 snowfalls each decade (taking out trace records). The 90's certainly stands out as having less than 90 snowfalls but the highest total snowfall of any of these decades. http://www.atmos.millersville.edu/~wic/climo/snow1980s.htm

This is what I use and shows daily records as needed. I just did not go back and verify my thoughts vs. comparing how winters seem to play out now and how I remember them. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=ctp

I alluded to this possibility before in comparing winters of the past to now...Climate change and winter weather (modeled or actual). Unfortunately I do not have the data to back up anything but I feel something has changed since 20-30 years ago. Whether that something also changed 20-30 years before that or we are in a whole new territory, the data would need to be parsed to confirm that. MDT's average snowfall seems to be near or above average the last 5-10 years but the amount of snowfalls feels less re: We get most of our snowfall in large chunks compared to the frequent 2-6" types snows in the 70's-90's. This does not just relate to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic either so it is not just an IMBY issue. Winters in the Southeast used to include frequent rainy periods when systems would form in or near the Gulf and slide over Florida or Georgia and either out to sea or up the coast. Over the past decade or two it is not happening that frequently anymore and is contributing to what seems like a never ending drought down there though this past summer has softened that a bit.

Without doing a study or verifying it seems to me that we are in the midst of a dearth of the old fashioned Low in Gulf track for several years now. Not a pattern expert by any means but I feel it is much more rare that we see any activity down there anymore and are having to rely on transferring scenarios much more often than 10-20 years ago.

I saw a PowerPoint last year that showed a timeline of the "FV3" going mainstream this month but as we have all seen, at least LR wise, verification's have been shoddy so they may have delayed it.

Icon Defense- I think the Icon ended up doing quite well, when comparing and verifying its SLP track from 5 days out, with the weekend event.

The photographer in the first pic seems scary close to the action.

Kind of looks snowy and icy Wed AM in Central PA. North and South. Could be snow two days in a row if the Thursday wave comes to fruition.

Looks like the cold front is somewhere in Eastern Fulton or Western Franklin County. Light Snow here and 33.

So two chances at winter weather during the work week. Wed Am a surprise but moderate signal for ice....and then watching that same front for a coastal to form Friday. I love chasing these things, when I have time, by watching models and discussing results with others. I actually use that discussion to help prepare forecasts for a few clients but after last week I felt several bad vibes for bringing you guys into it so I will chase with some others who also enjoy it but should still be around here when it comes to obs time.

CTP actually seems bullish about Wed AM :-)

Up to 34 here now. Plow just put a 1 foot tall line in front of my driveway. HRRR suggests I have until about 10AM tomorrow to get rid of it or I am stuck. Those 50 degrees temps do not make it this far west tonight.

Spoke to someone just a bit S/W of Dillsburg who is a little over 4" now.

Thanks for busting my forecast. I should have known not to slight you and gone with the safe 2-4.

All 3 types falling here right now. Temp jump from 32 to over 33 once the column gave in and went to some wet. I measured just after the rain started and going with 3.25". A bonus 1 1/4" after that first sleet intrusion. Not having much of a sleet fall really impresses how much warm air is being driven over top.

It is back to mostly sleet and actually appears to be some rain....a few flakes still mixed in. We are about 1 mile south of Rouzerville just at the base of what the locals call South Mountain though I am not sure if this specific ridge is actually called that vs. the whole range. Its a great view even if not good for CAD from a storm coming in from the S/W.

Wow, look at the push over York. The line that switched me before has indeed pivoted S/W a bit. The longer we stay on the edge of that thing the more we can pad the stats. I might actually have to go shovel if we get over 3".

We switched back over to Sn+ for the last 30 min so up to 2.5". 32/31. A sleet line that really means business is only miles away though.

Ahh, thought you were a bit closer to the the ridges. There is still some snow mixed with the sleet here so you are good for a bit hopefully. I hope you get exactly 4". Max out but keep the total within my prediction for you :-). With the sleet here I am going down as 2" for my snow total. It snowed 3/4 of an inch in the last 45 min before the sleet came.

Wouldn't you think that you would hold on for a bit being east of the ridge? At least a few hours. The snow right before the line gets there is intense. Probably 2" an hour if it would only last.