Bubbler86

I was still on the 3K so looked and at 12Z Tuesday the 540 Line is well up into PA and much of S/W 2/3rd of the state is over freezing at 500

3K had a similar look but much less in the totals department but I have seen the 3K come up way to short on qpf totals so I personally do not trust it for that vs. trends. I agree the 12K/old Nam is overdone on totals but the time period of non snow is the same between both. 12 hours of moderate to heavy ice was the main take away and that is a lot. I am staying up to see what Goofus has to say.

With that much sleet you would have to forgo building a Snow Man and chose to go with a Sleet Stack instead.

0Z Nam really gung ho on freezing rain. Not sure I believe this but not a map you see every day. Some of this has to be sleet. General 3-6" snow and then 12-15 hours of ice!

Welcome! We are just a tad more welcoming here than the forum south of us :-).

Interesting. My July comment was obviously a joke but it we were to get a true HECS with cold temps afterwards schools would definitely be scrambling to get days in.

The Point to Click probably gives us the answer...an ADDITIONAL 3-6" for the LSV. 1-2 tonight and 3-6 extra. Schools might be closed Mon and Tue instead of just 2 hours tomorrow. July 4th will be as American as Apple Pie and Schools finally finishing their 180 days.

I meant to say Nam above but guess you figured that out. :-). I am down here until either Wed night or Thursday AM. Keeping both options open in case it snows so much that flights are still delayed Wed. Very excited about the LR as well. Have not had a chance to look today but I would think we have a shot at snow every 3-4 days for the rest of the month. Some times it will cut but at least there is a chance.

I wold have thought that too but the wording on the AFD seems to suggest total of 3-6 for the LSV (the only one I read).

Regardless of snow maps and sleet vs snow the 18Z has a nice 1-2 shot and is certainly deserving of a warning if its depiction is close to correct.

i am not sure who is "trolling" and as all I have seen is the occasional poster, myself included, join in the convo and then a new guy that keeps talking about Harrisburg as if he is the wrong forum. This "you are in the wrong forum" stuff is for the birds in most cases. I will only speak for myself when I say that anyone from the MA, NE, NYC, anywhere...is welcome to contribute to any board I am part of as we are all here for enjoyment of weather tracking and such...especially winter weather for those here now. If someone from another forum is always coming into sub forums and trying work up the crowd that is not totally cool but as you stated I have not seen that and that would be what I consider trolling.

Canderson and Blizz going to the MA and representing!

That includes sleet and ice. Snowfall maps were a bit less.

Yea, verbatim the 12z Nam is really close to this busting badly (as it pertains to snow specifically) for South PA. Funny how models seem to know where the mason dixon. So often I see cut offs right on the line. Need cad at all levels to keep it flakes.

@Voyager is going to trash my predict and hug this one.

You are risking a permaban! Lol.

I even promised myself to include you this time and then forgot. I know where Marysville is. Second event- Bliz. 2-4" with significant icing. Lollipops of the up to 6" near your house:-). Another LSV predict. Monday- Schools on two hour delay, modified morning kinder. Tuesday- Schools closed Wednesday- Schools on two hour delay, modified morning kinder.

It certainly makes my tires and cars white even when dry. Car washes are living the high life right now.

First call. Not going to search for my name list so just drawing some random names from memory First event- area wide 1 to 2 inches possibly ending as some rain in the lsv. Second event- Mag, wmsptwx-3 to 6" with significant icing Voyager, carlisle, canderson-2 to 4" with significant icing Cashtown, dax, nut-2 to 4" with moderate icing

Driving down route 70 to BWI this morning and all roads are Pre-treated and powdery white including 195 the feeder road to the airport. That is always a good sign for the LSV if those southern boys think a cutter is going to give them road issues way down here. Of course they have to worry about tonight's snow as well.

Thanks for all the details. It is not great news but late February is better than nothing. It is all we have right now I guess. At least these cutter storms have given us something to track for front end stuff vs. it simply being too warm to snow at all times....but we really need a nice clear one foot or more all snow event to make this winter decent. The MJO reversing course is a very worrying sign. We continue to have little or no activity in the gulf which means we have to fight for everything here.

My posts are going to be a bit far and between the next few days as I will be in Florida...so no Mason-Dixon line observations from me. I think that after several days of this threat being less and less ominous (and that FV3 plot showing 2 feet of a snow a few days ago did not help ala expectations too high) we really are settling in on a nice frozen event for all of PA. I think it would be hard to hope for it to stay snow at this point as almost every model is showing the main SLP being in the upper mid west in 48 hours so short of a miracle coast transfer the SSW winds are coming...if only it were colder like I said a few days ago. If it were 15 in Sayre PA and 20 in Harrisburg PA as the slug approached I think this would be an 8-12" event but instead it will be 25-30 in Sayre and 30-35 in Harrisburg so there is not much breathing room. In fact without wet bulbs drops this would be an all rain event I think. CAD is probably going to win at surface for most of the storm but even the most "caddy" (Cad fight!!) of the models is pushing 850's up to the NY border.

Here is an example from the just completed 12Z NAM which shows most of the LSV staying near freezing at the surface for the whole event but the column above does not. First map is Pivotal's snow map which shows little to no snow south of the Mason Dixon and maybe a 1-4" type snow forthe LSV. Second map is TT which shows area wide (including much of MD) 3-6" snows...same data, different algorithms.

I wish I could figure out how to live in the time frame "10-15 days" as it would be snow every other day it seems.

After falling for the TT failure at the start of winter I have found Pivotal Weather's maps to be more realistic but yea if someone shows a map for all snow until a certain point it includes all snow not just the storm du jour. Outside snow maps I think TT is much more user friendly and easier to see on mobile devices. TT's are more fun to post though as evidenced by the Wed rain event where FV3 showed 4-6" in eastern PA :-).