Bubbler86

Hmm, I agree that his posts seem different at times but I really hate to start banning people. You probably know this but you can hide him from your feed as to seeing his original posts.

Gotta love the almost inevitable north trend in models whether it hangs on there or not.

I guess it is better to lose sleep over threats than no threats at all.

There are so many waves on the map that it is hard to keep track of them both visually and when discussing. Everything beyond Saturday is going to change depending on how the first two waves act and I hate to keep pushing out the timeline and saying "well wave X is going to cut but wave y is going to be our biggie in 7 days". But yea the mid week system (Wave 4, Wave 5?) is a bit hit on the 12Z GFS.

I am most interested in the Sunday/Monday storm and am disappointed that some guidance is making it a cutter again. It appears to be doing it due to the less than desirable spacing between a Thursday/Friday Lakes cutter, Saturday's quick hitter and then Sunday/Monday...there is never a chance for a High to set up as the Saturday quickie gets pushed south by cutter from Thursday then with both of them out of the way late weekend one cuts again. No 50/50 Low, No Block. etc...

LOL. So the issue for me with that is the schools. If they let the roads go then the schools should automatically cancel. There should not be any grinding of teeth as to whether they go or not...snow covered road? School is cancelled.

If we get 3-5 more storms we will soon start hearing news stories about local township budgets busting due to salt and overtime costs. An annual tradition of a snowy winter around here.

Nut already broke it down but the one I was referring too, #3 of the ones that hit (first one is south and I did not count) is indeed mostly rain on the 18Z GFS.

The GFS has been going back and forth between cutter and under us but the following Sunday is the third one, more rain than snow right now, on the latest run.

18Z GFS is still giddy about next week (and late this weekend).

If MDT finishes below normal with the pattern being shown in the mid term models (no more 10-15 days out, we should be seeing threats in the 5-10 day frame) then it will be a spectacular fail by these same models. MDT should be getting at least 10 more inches over the second half of the month if just 1 or 2 of the Choo Choo Train of storms works out.

It is too humid. Was especially bad on Sunday if you were here then. The best thing for me, when I come back to Florida, is Sweet Tomatoes restaurant but otherwise I agree with you.

Funny, I was in Orlando yesterday. In Ocala today.

Mecs or bust.

I have pretty much stopped looking at the FV3. I guess if all else shows bad I will look at it for any clue of a different outcome. You mentioned storm path and amde me think of an off shoot thought that any of the models I look at I do view the 500MB maps and do some extrapolating to try and figure out what the model is trying to predict but not as much as you do or or the MA LR/500MB map discussion thread. There is a definitely a science to it and trying to match 500MB profiles with actual surface results is a valid forecast method but I think too much time is wasted in that field and in reading AFD's you do not see mention of it as much any more.

Hard to trust those post front/extra wave snows but it worked out pretty well a week or two ago (if you mean early weekend). The whole GFS run is snow after snow :-).

I have been wavering in my opinion of using the HRRR for accumulations/qpf. It literally seems to change every hour. Temp's have been ok as have location of features, within 18 hours, but it seems to pop up areas of heavy precip that do not materialize sometimes. This was my first winter really using it and I am a bit disappointed with that aspect of it. It does a great job during hurricane season. I do want to add that big picture I think the Nam has done well this storm. Not enough time to break it out but just the orientation of the snow, frozen, rain line right now. GFS did pretty well the last few days as well. As usual the UK was terrible when it came to snow accumulations.

Welcome!

Right into the bubbler screw zone. I should have thought about cad before I bought this house.

In their defense a lot of modeling has had that bullseye about where they show it on their map...

I have not had an update from my wife in about an hour and 1/2 but think Rouzerville is around 3" right now.

Daxx has posted several times in the last week....just last night I believe....but have not seen Itstrainingtime in a long time.

I was thinking you guys were assuming that at this point. Just some light showers or drizzle. Maybe not all snow but going to be a crippling blow.

I posted the final snow fall map vs. the accumulated snow...trying to weed out any sleet On my second sentence was saying that everyone loses 500MB and the lower part of the LSV actually go above freezing at 850. Your snow map is fairly similar to the one I posted...just 1-2" discrepancies except maybe that one 10. accum on yours.

GFS holds the column past 12Z but gives it up sometime in the next 3 hours. 500's again for everyone and 850's for lower part of the LSV. Using the Pivotal Snow Cover maps shows a nice appreciable dump in the center of the state.