Bubbler86

Well the 12Z Nam does not appear to be routing out the cold air as quickly for mid week. Moderate snow has already invaded the S/W part of the LSV at 84 and it appears to be advancing. A big snow in Central VA. 6-10" there. Question in extrapolating will be whether the energy and WAA that produced the MECS down there will die out a bit as it runs into drier air. Next model out goes farther in time and I connot wait to see it!

Yea, on the NAM TT snow maps show 2-4" but I would think it would mostly be ice. A healthy .25 to .5 qpf. Time for a WWA. Just checked the column and can see 500MB is probably too warm for snow when the qpf is here. This convo is specific to tomorrow night.

May get nammed around 9:30 this evening.

I am still excited about the prospects of next week as to wintry weather but worried our MEC's may be in trouble. GFS is just strung out this afternoon but still 4-5 days away. I think the biggest thing the GFS shows it is getting near 70 next weekend. THAT is a torch!

I do not think we need to worry about that with all the rain the GFS shows next weekend (consistently for several runs in a row).

12Z GFS is a very ridge dependent 1-4" snow (depending on snow map) followed by moderate ice then a bit of rain for much of the LSV for next week. Not a great run...much less qpf into the cold part of the storm than before.

GFS is just plain rain for the LSV much of the time...this ice map is a better presentation of the threat for tomorrow. Mostly a windshield wiper event east of the mountains.

Wow. I guess with both events combined 6" was not too much over progs. I had thought 1-2 then 2-4 (storm 2) for us but was thinking we would really be the 1 and 2 and only get 3-4" total down here. I am around until mid March if all goes as planned now.

You are probably golden either way...did I read that you were the jackpot for the previous one? LOL. Leading into it we looked like 1-2 and quick turnover.

We are travelling a bit tomorrow as well but not sure the roads will be a big issue (even up there) since this is happening during the day . Would have to snow hard to accumulate in the 30's. Hopefully it works out for you (and me!).

I am watching the MA Banter thread with interest as people are bitching and moaning about the board being its worst ever. This board is a paradise to some previous WWBB and EUS versions. Joe Bartlo, DT Unleashed, JohnC1282, etc...we always talk about HM's twitter posts well that Bullshit drove him away from this board. I think this whole thing worked much better when it was not moderated. Of course there was a lot of trash but people spoke their minds and were not afraid to do so. That allowed a lot less butt hurt than the overly sensitive posts today. No worrying about how to post or say certain things. There used to be some really high level MET's like HM, PT, and TQ who would give us all free weather insight and the drama of moderated boards drove them away. Not sure why so many of them used two letter monikers. LOL. The Met's we have now are great but they are few and far between in these regional boards.

A little step back in the 0Z and 6Z models as to total snow accumulation for Tue night/Wed. Storm looks very similar to last weeks storm as depicted at the moment (and predicted by @djr5001 and @pawatch). I still think their is potential for a coastal tough to develop earlier this time due to the HP being a bit stronger. A lot of this will depend on the timing as if the high skedaddles before the low gets up into the Eastern Ohio Valley then we are indeed back to last weeks storm with a full cutter. Either way it looks wet with the gulf being open so a lot of something is going to fall...mostly frozen in PA one would expect. Verbatim the morning models give the Eastern 2/3 of PA a 3-6" snow fall, down from 8-12" yesterday, then ice. The Euro Kuchera shows 4-8".

This storm on Tuesday/Wednesday could be special. The Gulf is open for business, a high is sticking its nose down the coast there are hints of coastal development which could actually lock this in as a full frozen event if it transferred soon enough.

Hmm, the surface temps I saw seemed quite a bit lower than this last storm. Unfortunately without a premium site subscription I cannot see the whole column but can tell we do lose 850's later in the storm. I would be surprised if the storm, played out exactly like shown on the EC if we got less than 8" area wide as to S Central PA.

It is up to 61 here now (back in PA). Nice that Atlanta is cooler. (Said sarcastically)

On the subject of obs, it is up to 60 here and that is with little to no sun.

Hopefully all the folks spending the day taking their plows and tires chains off see this before finishing the job.

It sure does. I am waiting for someone to put out the snow and qpf maps but I would guess 8+ inches right now as to that run.

I saw ice and snow on trees yesterday with a temp of 50. Crazy winter. Usually the trees are the first to lose snow (well after the road of course).

GFS has so many chances that it stills puts 4-8" on most of the LSV over the next 7-10 days even with some rainers in there.

The 12Z Nam (and I believe 0Z Euro) are trying to bring that Sunday disturbance back as something to whiten the ground.

I am going to share in the enthusiasm from Blizz. Not because of any specific model data rather the thought that nothing has changed from several days ago except model output. There is enough cold air to make anyone one of these waves a winter threat if their eventual timing coincides with any type of blocking even if it is a fleeting block. Mag's post said it well as to the trough in the west not being conducive to repeated threats but any one of them is still open the possibility of being blocked under us. The cold air is marginal which is a second strike but not sure I see a all out blow torch coming.

Mag, Thanks for giving us a more scientific look at what is evolving whether good or bad. Funny thing...I went to a new doctor a few months ago and she commented how she loved Hawaii because it never snowed there. I pointed out to her that it snows yearly on the islands that have high altitude peaks and she vehemently disagreed with me and said it was impossible for it to snow anywhere in Hawaii. I found a new doctor.

The ignore button has been mentioned several times recently...I think if we put the ignore button the MA LR thread we might be less disappointed at times (and that includes myself). There was some reason for cautious optimism based on some of the LR models, over the last few days, but the constant 'Best look ever' Weenie run of the year' posts on that thread almost make it seem like there is no way we are going to miss out.

At the airport heading home and just checked the 12z Nam. Saturday system is being pancaked by the confluence to the north. No room for it to grow "up" when these players are all that close.