Bubbler86

For those that are interested in model verification there is another article linked below that discuses some of the pros and cons with the FV3 right now. Although it is scoring better than the GFS there are understandably a lot of worries about making it the official American model. It has a tendency to over amp storms especially in the mid range. In watching it this winter I would say it is much more consistent that the GFS in that it does not bounce around from run to run. In terms of actual weather and results I am not sure any model should have too much confidence placed in it. Even the HRRR has been tripping up this year. These scores are World scores in that it is for weather all over the globe. When it comes down to forecasting North Eastern US snow storms the Farmers almanac is probably in the running for the best. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/

Mainly two distinct camps of progs right now....all based on how far north the best forcing (conveyor belt) gets. 6Z EC, 12Z Nam focus the prceip up into PA with Wide Spread 5-10" amounts though much of the state 12Z GFS, 12Z Icon, 12Z FV3 favor more of a cut off north of I80 and the GFS especially has max snows south of the DC area but still 6-10" into south central PA. Here is the 12Z GFS. GFS is the outlier right now as to the area of max snows.

We need to check into that...this article suggests it is the other way around. https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/06/the-us-weather-model-is-now-the-fourth-best-in-the-world/

The subject of verification scores interests me and I was always under the impression that the first number was the actual score re: GFS did worse than FV3 in that plot. I believe these scores focus mostly on evolution of 500MB features vs. apparent weather so while the UK may have done ok with big picture stuff the actual results on the UK have been terrible this winter. I stopped looking at it as it was rarely sending cutters west of us, which is what has happened almost every time, until the last minute. Edit-I found what I believe is confirmation that the numerical value is the number to look at here...not the order they are in. This plot shows EC-UK-CMC-FV3-GFS-FNG-CFS in that order.

Yea, that is the reason behind those crazy NAM maps. I do not think the Euro map is including sleet. Otherwise we would all be hugging this! LOL.

6Z Euro Snow Depth. Not the same as 0 but still a major hit for many.

If I had to rank the models from some light verification and memory I would do these as such...just my opinion LR and MR- Icon Euro GFS CMC UK FV3 SR- Euro NAM Icon GFS FV3 CMC UK

Took a look at the NAM and GFS it appears we lose the column around hour 63 which is after most of the precip has come...and both models are forecasting 1" or so along the southern tier of PA so without any more ado, here is the first call with a wide berth on this one until a final call of snow (not sleet or frz included in this call...that would be extra). Blizz, Canderson, Sauss, Carlisle, Voyager-4-8" Nut, Dax, Wmstpwx-3-6" Mag, Cashtown, Bubbler-6-10" Hour 60 full column temps on the NAM

Headed to bed....GFS is not much snow and is a bit of an outlier at the moment,

Icon is at least 6 hours of 1-2" per hour snowfall for most of the LSV.

Excuse me, Na'am. Do you have a moment to talk about the Kuchera?

Steady rain up to 35 in Gettysburg. Staying over here for the night...little getaway.

Another map...hopefully it is not annoying anyone but this is the best chance for a foot this season. 18Z EC showing snow depth map of 8-12" over Central PA...a bit less in eastern LSV.

Yea I should have said biggest storm of the season but the setup looked like 8+ inches several days ago and I think we are still in play for that. Will need to be under the convergence of the WAA and the conveyor belt bringing in extras from the west.

We are trending to a mostly snow in today's models. If we can avoid the low winding up too much to our west I think Cad is going to make this the biggest snow of the season.

Yep.

Well I am glad, at least for the mood of the forum and my own mood, that the conveyor belt of moisture from the gulf idea is back on the table. If you look at the Euro and Nam you will see people who get under this will be the winners if today's prog's come to fruition. I think there would be some 1 foot measurements in Central PA. The precip fills into the south eventually but those under the WAA firehose will already be into WSW criteria before the fill in happens. A lot of the positives today are based on the lack of phasing/amping up of the low in the mid west.

Quick ob...light rain and 34 in Gettysburg

Hard to tell with the NAM clown maps on TT but would guess 18Z is 6-10" of snow for much of PA followed by major sleet.

Euro wallops Pitt so even they are still in this game...not often that happens.

This is the 0Z Euro snow depth map. Surprised me seeing with 8-12 again for some. Evolving situation here...no system really winding up to the west so the CAD, at all levels, is holding strong on the progs right now.

No doubt I am not speaking down to the event just not sure we see real accumulating snow.

12Z Nam is an LSV special for mid week. 4-8" (highest in Adams county, surprise!...Not! Check out how that finger of 6-8" reach down to @Cashtown_Coop)

I would bet this snow map is more realty than 1-3" area wide. More ice.

Globals generally show a 2-6" snowfall followed by ice for the Eastern 1/2 of the state midweek.