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Bubbler86

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Everything posted by Bubbler86

  1. Bubbler86
    EC and Nam stayed steady and GFS caved to the others and is now well into PA so we probably have our best idea now. Euro still insistent on 8-12" in far Western LV before sleet takes over.
  2. Bubbler86
    Could not head off without posting this impressive HRRR pic. 6 AM Wed and the hounds of major snows are just starting for us. The 700MB line still in South VA at this point.
  3. Bubbler86
    I think it still looks like a good chance of a 4-8" snow for the southern half of PA, except far SW and far SE, with some areas getting under a jet streak and pushing into double digits whether in PA or N Md. GFS and FV3 are both having lackluster winters (IMO) so unless the Euro goes pretty far south I am guessing NWS stays with their WSW's.
  4. Bubbler86
    GFS's soon to be big brother is much more NAM like. This panel is close to or right after the flip to sleet in LSV. @pasnownut is not going to accept it showing 6-8 for him. LOL. Its been a fun night of "As the Model Turns"
  5. Bubbler86
    Yea it looked a lot worse than the NAM but the panels on the GFS are 6 hours and Nam 3 so the snow seems to go out faster but it is snowing in between panels (my interpretation).
  6. Bubbler86
    Looks like GFS is 2-4 for MDT but yea not a big snow by any means.
  7. Bubbler86
    Understood but the NAM verbatim averages between 1-1.5" an hour....especially in the counties I mentioned. It is really a nowcast situation with this type of storm anyway so just model discussing. I am seeing 2-3" hour rates just south of PA on the RGEM Icon. A lot will also have to do with ratios and snow growth but I guess my point is that anytime a large area is getting 8 or 9" there is probably someone getting a few inches more. Not going to put 12" in my forecast that is for sure.
  8. Bubbler86
    7 hours of 1.5" per hour gets you close. Every storm we get a few big totals in so if we are seeing general 6-10" totals then I bet we hear about some a bit higher.
  9. Bubbler86
    The ever elusive "Purple DBZ Snow"
  10. Bubbler86
    I am waiting to see if the American Globals continue to move north a tad but really think someone in Adams, Northern York, Cumberland or Dauphin could get a foot out of this just by holding on to snow an extra hour or so.
  11. Bubbler86
    Yea, without hourly panels I had to estimate hours of snow. Most of us are good at 42 and not good at 45 so somewhere in between...I believe most of what is on the ground at 45 would be snow. Say it changes at 42 for you and myself, 43-44 for others a bit east then 3-4 hours of moderate top heavy sleet. Really not much freezing rain for central pa but some in the southern LSV.
  12. Bubbler86
    Snow depth as it is transitioning over to sleet for most of us.
  13. Bubbler86
    Yea looks like 6-10" for LSV just doing the math of 6-8 hrs of moderate to hvy snow. No snow map needed.
  14. Bubbler86
    LSV loses 700MB after 6-9 hours of 1-2" hr snow rates. Assume 1 to keep this in context.
  15. Bubbler86
    Nam has snow starting in MDT around 7AM Wed.
  16. Bubbler86
    Yep, me as well. This reminds me of a mini version of some of those over perform 1-2 foot storms over the last ten years (which I had to watch on from the south!). I have fun making predictions but this really will be a nowcast storm as to who gets 4" and who gets 12"
  17. Bubbler86
    All this time (MA LR thread) fighting to find a way away from this look and here we are in the cusp of what could potentially be the biggest snow of the season for some and we make do with it anyway. All we needed was a weak low to open the Gulf firehose and spray it over our transient cold dome.
  18. Bubbler86
    FV3 also looking more NAM/Euroish. These maps are from pivotal weather and supposedly are mostly snow but I am not 100% trusting of any of them as the depth maps do not always match to the point of them being too different. I can tell from the different column temps that most of us would be snow for at least 6 hours.
  19. Bubbler86
    18Z GFS moved north a bit with the norther area of maxes. Models seem to be converging some. Good news for most of the Central 3/4 of the state. 18Z 12Z
  20. Bubbler86
    I thought your amounts sounded very official.
  21. Bubbler86
    Glad we have another predict. Hated being the only one. I might make a final call tonight after I see 12z Nam's thoughts precip type/how much intrusion of warm air especially down here.
  22. Bubbler86
    On the road but I was thinking wed am as well. Last time I looked at it specifically I would have guess 8 to 10am in Harrisburg but did not look at timing on the euro if is slowed down a bit like djr mentioned.
  23. Bubbler86
    Whoops, I jumped the gun on the snow map. Checked it before the snow was done. 6-8" for much of the LSV for 4-6 for rest...lollipop of 8-12 over Cashtown. Some of this may be sleet but NWS should be safe calling for 5+ plus region wide for the whole Susquehanna valley.
  24. Bubbler86
    Euro snow depth which is the best predictor of accumulation for me...the snow maps are too spotty. Note that areas north of the LSV already have snow on the ground so this is most useful, for this storm, for the LSV. General 6-8" for NW LSV when done. 4-6 most of the rest of the LSV...a tad less far east. Lots of ice afterwards.
  25. Bubbler86
    Well the 12Z Euro basically held serve...maybe a tad less but if anything the max's are north in Central PA. Still on for 4-8" snowfall for most in PA. At this point the GFS should probably be questioned. Should see Winter Storm Watches this afternoon as they totals are just the snow side...additional ice on top.
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