Bubbler86

Down to 32 with a DP of 8 right now. Hope to make it to under 25 by arrival of precip and get a few degrees under that as it starts. Cushion!

FV3 depth map...posting so it can be recorded re: how well it verifies.

Juicy radar. Would not be a surprise for some 0Z's (how do you say MAN backwards?) to over do it a bit tonight.

Ha, someone is going to interpret that as "A met in the PA forum is calling for Thundersnow tomorrow".

They actually sell these at the Cashtown Dollar Store. They cost $2.

CTP's discussion was my basis for saying someone could get a foot....any one up to 7-8" that has an extra hour or two whether due to rates, models under doing Cad or because the US Airforce sprinkles snow down from the clouds (it all counts excpet the fake snow in Buffalo) has a shot at a special event tomorrow. You mentioned the HRRR. I just counted 10-11 panels of snow, of varying rates, for most. If it still shows that 6 hours from now then it can probably be takens seriously.

The latest Nam still says 8-12 for you so something is going to bust badly. The Nam is on its own in having orientation of the WAA surge go more North East vs. more East to West track.

FYI, that forecast I did for you and PAwatch...I was hedging my bets a bit and taking a blend of the NAM into consideration to mesh the GFS depcition of 2-3 and Nam's of much higher.

I reemember doing some posts on the temps and DP's as that system approached ast week. Not going to dig it out but yea I think both will be 3-5 degrees colder at onset this time. I remember mentioning Sayre and saying temps would be in the low 20's....this time temps would be around 17 up there from where our funnel would be coming.

I think they have to cancel if there is a WSW and whatever forecaster they use is predicting snow and Ice into that night.

Off topic from the storm, but I just noticed we are the number 1 thread, for replies and views, in the Upstate NY/PA sub forum. May have been there before but had not noticed....you bunch of talkative SOB's! LOL

I just looked at it....like a Choo CHoo Train of chances.

Thats BS, I am fringed. LOL

I am waiting for Blizzard to notice that I gave him an extra inch than his neighbors. He gets one extra for forum enthusiam!

You had me at "Next week!". Really hoping tomorrow is not the end. I know we will lose much of the pack a few days after but love having more MR threats.

Final call... Been watching (and posting!) a lot of models the last 3 days to try and derive how they depict moisture getting up into the PA area. It seems the trend is for two general blobs of moisture with one mostly bypassing us to the south and the other concentrating in the southern half of PA (if you toss the Nam's depiction which is much different). Jetstream maps seem to keep the entrance regions of the jet steak a bit north of PA so it comes down to frontogenesis and qpf being thrown over our cold dome. My opinion is that S Central PA is in the bullseye right now especially near the MD line so…all of this is before ice. The Euro has about 1.5" of qpf for most of us so there is a lot of ice (and some rain) on top of this. @Cashtown_Coop, @bubbler86 7-9" with some near one foot totals near the area. @MAG5035 6-8" @CarlislePaWx @Blizzard of 93 5-7" @canderson @djr5001 @sauss06, @2001kx, @paweather, @daxx, @Voyager 4-6" @Wmsptwx @pasnownut, @pawatch 3-5"

12Z Euro snow depth maps are out. I was asked to provide a before and after so below is the snow map as of this afternoon and following it is the snow map in 33 hours when the column has collpased for most of PA and we are icing.

That's a great ob. DP maps confirm singles and low teens for the whole state. I think the GFS depiction of the surface getting above freezing tomorrow is very suspect....for the eastern 2/3 of the state.

GFS is out and it is still a major snow for much of Central PA....not so much to the east but I remember lots of people suggesting the GFS's ability to properly maintain and forecast CAD is an issue. Either way here it is for anyone waiting. This is at 33 hours just after we lost 700MB in and near the LSV.

You should be smoking a pack of Icon's. Has the elusive purple DBZ snow intensity over or near both of us at 18Z tomorrow.

My official forecast will be out this afternoon...you can troll off of that :-).

To Daxx's point, here is the 700MB temp map when the snow is starting to run into issues. The LSV has only had .2 to .3 of qpf fall at this point. Just one model and part of the discussion. In this map the green is above freezing.

That includes sleet and who knows what else unfortunately. Here is the map when the snow switches to sleet for the LSV.

Nam continued to advertise a Northern PA max snow accumulations. A bit of a dry slot up into the LSV.

Showed 6-8 in western Lancaster county. Close enough for me to troll you over it. The current FV3 did pull back some out your way.