Bubbler86

12Z Nam really initiated well with the heavy snow and location of lightning. Have to wonder if many of us never change to ice until the second wave comes through late today.

Good news....happy for Pitt.

Shady Maple...the real reason people visit Lancaster County!

Not a white out but would call this Moderate to Sn+. I keep my car out of the garage during snow because our driveway is too long to risk being stuck back there in an emergency.

Yea, it is pouring snow here right now. Saw @Cashtown_Coop just posted a lightning strike in Wesatern MD. That gives @MAG5035 a verification for his "call" of thundersnow. I would think you guys will saturate pretty soon.

Nice band coming through here. We are at an inch now. 26/20.

HRRR which is a little below the threshold I mentioned but these others are over it. All of these are snow only forecasts as I took snips right when the transition was happening. Just realized the scale is not on these so here you go. The numbers on the maps are not always the totals for that area as the number may be misplaced and meant to be for the right or left. For example, all of these maps (hard to tell with the RAP though) are 5-6 for MDT or higher. HRDRPS Nam 3K Rap (Pink is 6-8" and white is 5-6")

Just ran through the SR Meso's and pretty uniform calls for snow until 2-3 in the LSV, a little later up north. Has a fairly large blob of S Central PA concentrated for 6-10" with 3-6" in the corners of south PA and 3-5" north of I80. People are probably tired of maps but can post any if interested.

26/16 here this AM with mod snow and a coating...snow is fighting through the dry air. S Central PA still looks in the bullseye even if not as much as it could have been.

Yea we are veterans of these snow to slop situations now after 1/2 dozen this season. The GFS 2m temps have been 5-10 degrees too high on every storm. Still pretty amazing differences between Nam and GFS. Hard to have faith in anything beyond using them for trends.

Yea, the Euro (and the Icon) have held serve pretty much straight through the last few days. The GFS steals our snow and lays it on the MA.

Is that for the Pitt area specifcally? It is not so off the wall for CTP area. Nam is the outlier here. The theme of the 0Z suite so far has been a slightly delayed onset, slightly less intensity which both translate to a bit faster switch to sleet so lower snow totals than 18Z. Not too worried about it.

Very cool. I was looking to see what your humidty was over the last few hours and that shows it all! I was surprised I was so low...I am at 47% still.

Are you not on the Wunderground Network with your rig? Maybe it is against the rules for a Coop to be listed? I am not but have 3-4 others within 5 miles of me that are.

27/9 here. Had made it to 26 before stopping the drop.

Interesting, in a not so good way for me, is the the HRR is steadily decreasing the size of the snow maxes North each hour. 1Z 0Z 23Z

Here is the Kucherha for the Nam. LOTS of Ice for the LSV....light on the snow. Really floods the column up to the NY state line. Based on radar I think this is underdone a bit.

LOL, had to help you out but I like the name Milltown.

Well no naming...Nam is still focusing the better forcing up into North Central PA so it is either going to be terribly wrong or score the win of the storm. Does show a lot of Ice in the Bottom third of the state and actually changes the whole state over to a mix at one point.

Thanks for remembering us and that forecast seems very reasonable. Two Met's posting in the PA forum in the same day! A rare day indeed.

It is just the way the map smooths out for the graphic. The dark blue, purple and purple with slight red tint is 6-8".

Not staying up for all the models tonight but HAVE to see what the Nam says. It has to give up the ghost and pull the maxes south or it is going to pull off a coup and IF it does give up will south PA be Nam'ed and make forecasters worry that 8" forecasts will bust low when a combo of longer CAD, better ratios and longer period of snow ups the ante.

Snow on the ground at at 11AM from the latest HRRR. Animation of the radar shows the heaviest returns staying about 1/4 of the way up the state thorugh this point.

I am not that familar with route 84 but it will be snow covered with well below freezing temps in the mid to upper 20's so that drive will be a bit dangerous.

I would not think so but more than once I have seens temps surprise me a bit high here this winter. Already dropped to 30 since my post. 2 degrees in 10-15 min...was probably teetering on 31 before.