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Well, appears the AI models need some more teaching and learning before they can predict tropical storm and hurricane formations. Andy Hazelton @AndyHazelton 1h Central Atlantic waves are pretty convection-free at the moment, as background stability and dry air suppresses rising motion. Not surprisingly, there isn't much model signal for development anymore - the AI models seemed to have been overzealous. For now it seems like physics-based models (e.g. GFS, Euro, and their ensembles) are still our best bet for sniffing out potential TC formation.

Things should start to ramp up a bit

90/74 heat index is 99 at 10:00 AM ugh.

I seriously had to look several times because I know that we were in deep purple, but it's intriguing that the map seemed to have updated it even after you copy and pasted it. They definitely lowered rainfall totals in the range of 1 to 3 days. I could still use an inch though.

What a look for early August.

Well, the area of heavier storms weakened as it neared this area, but still managed .25 so that brings me to roughly 1.25 " for the last 24 hours. I am thinking I will let the grass go for two days, even with temps of 94 and 95 with the expectation of rainfall Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Lawn disease and garden blight have been off the charts bad here due to high overnight lows, and very high dew points. Having the lawn dry out a bit will be a good idea.

Missed the second round of storms a couple hours ago, but currently looking at another area of heavy rainfall near Calvert Acres and Fair Hill, MD moving generally SE/ESE.

What an explosion of cloud tops over North Central Va., and to a lesser extent of SE PA last 90 minutes https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G19&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

Picked up an additional .30 , that plus last night gives me .94. Appears another area of storms will drop down from Se PA and NE MD. Very active July for sure !

Incoming storm from the NW , didn't think I would get in on this round. Lots of distant thunder but so far not much rain, yet.

That could be a big rain producing period, then its Fall. ( for a couple days )

Have to keep an eye on possible training storms later for the potential of flash flooding. Mount Holly AFD mentions that the Southeastern portion of the forecast area has a marginal risk for training storms, other areas are slight risk. As we get into the afternoon, increasing instability across the area with daytime heating will result in showers and thunderstorms developing through much of the remainder of the day. Likely and categorical pops will continue in the forecast. These showers and storms will be very efficient rain producers resulting in the potential for heavy rainfall. Storm motions look to be fast enough to keep the threat for flooding localized but if storms repetitively train over an area, the threat for flash flooding will be higher. WPC has a SLIGHT risk for much of the area with a MARGINAL risk for the southeastern portion of the region where the threat for training thunderstorms is slightly less. SPC maintains a MARGINAL risk for severe thunderstorms too with damaging winds as the primary threat.

July so far

.65 overnight. Good old fashion thunderstorm.

.15 last evening.

Yup, having a moderate shower here currently. Could have been better, as the earlier storm missed to the East.

Yes, will be cool to see how it unfolds. meanwhile Accuweather on the cool down bus.

92/77 heat index 106

From the WPC Day 6 to 7 By Wednesday and especially Thursday the cold fronts slowly pushing south could provide a focus for enhanced rain amounts in the East, which will be refined in future forecasts.

Currently 88/76 here with a heat index of 99. You might think its bad here, thankfully we do not have to deal with corn sweat.

Maybe we start to get some better surfing waves by the mid to third week of August, not too crazy please, but maybe just enough to make if more interesting.

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1948522507922792876 Interestng read from Webber

Mid Atlantic surf zone and offshore SSTs are on fire compared to last year at this time.

Pretty much insignificant rain for the Eastern areas, given the high temps and strong sun. Flooding concerns of 6 days ago are not going to happen, things have changed.

Very nice outside. Currently 80° with a dew point of 64 and a South wind at 15 mph. Better dog walking weather than last week