frd

Wonder if that might retrograde SW in time?

You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month.

Here is the NAO forecast

- AO day over day forecast decline has stopped for now. Middle of next week is at its lowest on this forecast grid, right near the storm threat. Looking at the NAO its decling but never goes negative, however the loading pattern I believe is still in process. Would think a -NAO forecast should eventually show itself.

Makes sense, @psuhoffman you still in the mindset of a decent later month , early March pattern ? Anything you see currently have you thinking otherwise. I have not checked out the MJO recently, but the general indices look decent, and hopefully we progress to a more typical blocking scenario that raises the bar in the lowlands and everywhere else as well.

Maybe this trends South. Still a lot of time.

And, for the most part did not do well.

Debbie downers were actually correct stating SER is very powerful plus in years past when things looked great the eventual correction was a cold air dump out West. It might be the new normal. Models not great. It's happening yet again.

Rather large area of significant snowfall. Is that large an area typical this far out?

Some folks think because its Feb everything will go North, or trend North if given enough time. I wouldn't bet the house on that assumption. There are some dynamics in play that could once again, as you mention, push everything South for the largest threat. For me the two real issues are temps and track. Next week temps should be fine temp-wise, but track still very much in question. Hopefully we all win out. Of course some positive development today with the Euro and the GFS. So we track.

Improved trends on the AO, some members tank it to extreme negative values, - 4 to -6 SD. This ups the potential of 6 inch or greater snowfall in our area. The drop in the AO from +4 SD back in October to negative is even more pronouced ( quicker ) this go around. ( even though we started at +3 SD versus + 4 SD ) Depending on SPV and future heat fluxes, the real bottom to the AO may not even occur until March, in a repeating cycle downward. Also, improvements in the NAO and the PNA are noted as well.

So true, its like the Holy Grail for setting up MECS.

Not me, other forum, I think that's silly.

Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO.

This looks better than yesterday's. I can't recall , but WOW !

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1886548148765573403 The EPS are impressively bullish on the potential for a moderate or major Mid Atlantic/Northeast snowstorm between Feb 11-14. At these lead times I wouldn’t read too much into the specifics — just that a major snowstorm potential in this region exists

You think the worse of the snow ( lots of snow ) is before the 20th or after the 20 th Lets put odds on it ?

Hmm, bit of a lag until the next threat. J/K would be hard to see that far out, but the 12 th and 13 th are clear as day.

Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier, I like it much, much colder. Hopefully, the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet.

Bob Chill got over 30 inches, and my area was on the Eastern end of less forcing, I measured 13 inches, areas to the West much higher. NWS forecast was for nearly 22 here.

Ah, that explains it. Hey, I agree things look very good, I am awaiting on a general MECS, its been many, many years, even 2016 was a dissapointment here.

My takeaway is simply whether its cold enough with a robust moisture plume moving up and over our region. Playing the Devil's advocate is all I am saying.

GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models. Meanwhile it appears the PV split and SSWE forecasts have calmed a bit, ( yes its really not needed ) reading about the continued battle between the SER and the -AO. Question is, will it be cold enough down here in DC., Baltimore and the lowlands for all snow events. We have the mositure, but do we really have the cold ? And, will the cold hold ?

In the snow department it appears areas up to our North cash in the best. Maybe all snow versus uncertain amount further South. Still not seeing the low lands cashing in yet in a big way.

I have to do a fact check, not sure. That might be the other guy who is a bigger hypster than JB, he names starts with a M.