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More severe weather potential late June and early July https://x.com/TylerSebreezy/status/2069109423008542773 The next 2 weeks feature a good deal of potential severe weather opportunities. The NSSL machine-learning output here isn't the only thing supporting severe weather risks in late June and early July.

Hmm, might get interesting soon on the Upper Eastern Shore.

If I am guessing your exact location correctly, it appears that some crazy ass storms are on the way from your WSW

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/2069101636929142827 Eastern heat ridge next week begins to retrograde west and north by holiday weekend, favoring cooler East for July 6th workweek.

Cell developed rapidly NE of Wilmington, DE. and is moving right up I-95 towards Philly.

More of a heavy rain threat. Skies have cleared here for the most part.

Up and down pattern continues

I wish

WPC increased overall precip 7 day totals ( most of that is early week )

Mount Holly more bullish with the heavy rain wording, we shall see. Good luck !

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

Seems that the Nino is already effecting the 500 look next week to late month.

Persistence

SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -

Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.

A few tiny cells popping up in extreme northeast Maryland

Larger view on the Days 0 to 46

Yes, in my mind I know summer here can go to October, but there is always a chance .005% At least soon we will pass the peak sun angle.

Could use more rain, but temps not bad. Worse of the heat behind us?

Several cells pivoting East of DC moving NE.