frd

Mount Holly more bullish with the heavy rain wording, we shall see. Good luck !

There were times in the past that had major PV disruptions during a El Niño / +QBO combinations. They tended to ocur in later winter versus early in December to Jan.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

Seems that the Nino is already effecting the 500 look next week to late month.

Persistence

SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 16 Jun, 2026 Average SOI for last 30 days -20.85 Average SOI for last 90 days -12.51 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.30 Monthly average SOI values Mar 7.59 Apr -9.88 May -13.22 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI Daily contribution Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 16 Jun 2026 1015.72 1014.90 -3.30 -20.85 -12.51 15 Jun 2026 1014.15 1014.70 -12.93 -21.65 -12.43 14 Jun 2026 1012.95 1015.20 -24.88 -21.99 -12.27 13 Jun 2026 1013.31 1016.35 -30.44 -21.77 -12.05 12 Jun 2026 1013.95 1016.80 -29.10 -21.27 -11.81 11 Jun 2026 1015.79 1016.65 -15.11 -20.72 -11.37 10 Jun 2026 1015.93 1015.45 -5.69 -20.61 -10.91 9 Jun 2026 1014.09 1014.60 -12.65 -20.73 -10.58 8 Jun 2026 1014.36 1016.70 -25.52 -20.24 -10.22 7 Jun 2026 1014.05 1017.70 -34.73 -19.19 -9.71 6 Jun 2026 1013.94 1016.55 -27.42 -18.06 -9.05 5 Jun 2026 1012.20 1015.15 -29.81 -17.33 -8.44 4 Jun 2026 1010.52 1014.25 -35.29 -16.43 -7.77 3 Jun 2026 1010.14 1013.80 -34.80 -15.47 -7.10 2 Jun 2026 1012.48 1015.05 -27.13 -14.79 -6.56 1 Jun 2026 1013.74 1014.85 -16.87 -

Some changes as we move towards the third week of June.

A few tiny cells popping up in extreme northeast Maryland

Larger view on the Days 0 to 46

Yes, in my mind I know summer here can go to October, but there is always a chance .005% At least soon we will pass the peak sun angle.

Could use more rain, but temps not bad. Worse of the heat behind us?

Several cells pivoting East of DC moving NE.

Quick moving small storm hit here .14 At least it cooled off the garden.

Several cells popping up already.

https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2064837035706163334

Middle of next week has potential.

True, but hopefully things start to change as we exit August. We have seen rapid improvements in as little as 90 days during previous Fall seasons leading into Winter.

Stilling raining lightly here on the back edge. .50 so far, was not really expecting that much.

Storm seem to be intensifying as they near the Aberdeen proving ground. Will be interesting to see how the Upper Bay affects direction.

Well the line on the upper eastern shore looks legit the question is will it hold together as it moves East into my area near the c&d canal

Raining going poof here as it moves East.

Does it take it all the way East, even if it were to happen?