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Will be interesting to see if the roll forward analogs do indeed result in a more conducive pattern for cold and snow in the East by early to mid Jan 2022. Certainly appears the cold and snow hits out West first.

I liked this scatter diagram the best. Snow lovers may want to know: Does a cold winter support a snowy winter? Your grandmother would’ve said so and that common sense answer is the right one. Cold temperatures correlate with a snowy winter better than any of the indices I just discussed. Below is a scatter diagram of winter temperature anomalies and seasonal snowfall.

Both the EPS and the GEFS support a - 5 PNA. Also, the PNA remains negative for the next 360 hours.

Some of the seasonal models keep the negative PNA pattern for the duration of the winter. We certainly will need some luck to score at this lower latitude. Cannot overemphasize the importance of some cooperation from the Pac.

Early to mid Jan cold odds increasing

Really need some Pac help. At this point a - NAO will not cut it for the low lands.

- NAO retrograde looks better today, but the Pac is still so so. I feel we are never really going to see anything but a minor window of improvement on the Pac side during the course of the winter. Although there may be a favorable Pac transition in early Jan according to Roundy.

This is unusual. It did happen in Jan 1980.

Cool animation. Like Webb states, far from perfect, but shows one possible progression moving forward.

Will need to watch this constructed analog progression in the weeks ahead centered on 1-13-22.

Fits @brooklynwx99 's roll-forward West based - NAO research. Pretty cool !

Interesting as well are the changes in the placement and orientation of the PV as we near the end of the month.

From a respected met is this interesting roll forward analysis. This December appears to finish with a -NAO/-PNA combo. He stated that " Januaries that historically followed Decembers with a -NAO/-PNA featured favorable patterns for the E US with a significant west-based -NAO:

@psuhoffman Goes along with what you said. From Webb.....posted today. these slower-moving West Pacific MJO waves during La Nina are actually the most likely to significantly disrupt the stratosphere and create stronger, long-lasting -NAOs because of the poleward displacement of the N Pacific jet during La Nina (focusing more wave fluxes onto the mean state/over eastern Russia when active WP MJO is present) & greater separation between the Pacific + Atlantic jet streams as well as large wavelength Rossby Waves in the N Pacific jet.

Still out in time, but provides some hope for late month.

Keep moving MJO

It may effect the PV in a positive way.

That should start to help shift things around.

Maybe some positive changes start near December 20 th.

To balance things out.

We all laugh at Dr Cohen @CAPE , but I will say this, last year looked better at this point. We had record NA snow cover and a cold period in December. ( even though we experienced the same typical warmth period after Dec. 15 ) I think there is something to be made of a healthy cryosphere and extensive snow cover. So far the AO forecast have been getting uglier and uglier.

Take this with a grain of salt. But, in a Nina and with the base state we have I can see this happening.

It appears that the early seasonal forecast from the euro and even the UK met portraying a weakening of the vortex at the end of November and in early December is not going to pan out. The vortex remains firmly planted over the North Pole and doesn't even offer any displacement towards North America. It would appear that those calling for a front loaded winter may not get it. It would be ironic if the heart of Winter produces which is not typical of a la Nina.

I have not seen the Control for the GFS or the Euro score a win in many years during the late Fall or Winter when it comes to predicting potential snowfall. Meanwhile, I would be concerned regarding a poor NAM state, and the lack of any posts from HM about the upcoming winter.