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For the Coastal Plain still feel the highest threat for a SECS or greater is from Jan 20 th to the 29 th . This will also coincide with the possibilty of the coldest readings of the winter so far, especially if snow cover can be achieved.

The banana high pressure structure to the North totally collapses in a period of 24 hours. Dissapointing. As Bob Chill stated we were at 2 for 2 , but luck has to stop , so I think this one is going to be a loss for the coastal plain. Amazing too, how intense the cold is Sunday morning and then how quickly we warm up.

True, as psu stated, the more threats we experience the higher the odds are we will strike it rich with at least one flush hit. As for the STJ, yes that becomes more favorable. We are just entering the favorable pattern this weekend.

Regardless the final outcome, I enjoyed DT's last line the best. "And yes there is plenty more activity coming up after this event"

As Ji would say, a total disaster. Rain, I can't believe, a huge shift. Spacing and timing, we will see.

Sweet animation

Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 11 Jan 2022 1011.99 1008.45 -5.04 6.46 8.80 10 Jan 2022 1007.84 1008.35 -24.11 7.04 9.02 9 Jan 2022 1007.02 1008.30 -27.74 8.33 9.43 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

ICON came way North

First time in many a year that I can recall cold and snow setting up shop for a long run in early to mid Jan. Normally it is time for the Jan thaw, not this year. Excellent !!!

For sure, lots of cold and active. Even Walt Drag is excited and the super long range modeling keeps extending the winter pattern. Awesome mean at 360 hours from the Euro and the latest CFSv2 has gone colder in early Feb.

Ah, a buffet of goodies possibly.

Interesting, but all options are on the table at this time for the Mid Atlantic Southward.

That is funny. I guess luck needs to be listed first in order of importance above a - AO , -NAO or a + PNA in the Mid Atlantic. Hopefully we get some great luck to go with our upcoming favorable pattern.

LOVE this animation posted by Griteater. Pretty incredible to imagine the possibilities ahead. s

Wow, gets tastier and tastier as time moves on. A very active pattern as John mentions.

Impressive decline continues in the SOI. Today's value - 27. Certainly goes with @brooklynwx99 awesome post about a STJ component to the pattern down the line.

The STJ is in play down the road. A continued decline in the SOI . Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 8 Jan 2022 1008.45 1008.65 -22.65 9.56 9.77

Going beyond this time frame ... BANG KU potential. Using the snowfall images simply to show the period of interest is supported by the EPS and the GEFS members. .

Yes indeed, some very interesting potential outcomes in the long range. Besides the favorable Pac we have a very pronounced elongation/stretching of the PV forecasted. This may coincide with Atlantic wave breaking and Greenland blocking. This could buckle and slow the exit of systems off the East Coast in addition to a potential dive of the arctic jet bringing the possibilty of very low lattitude high ratio snow events, along with extreme baroclinic deepening of storms off the East Coast. Here we are now Then at 240 hours Then at hour 372, which is crazy. Of note is the shifting Southward of the PV / streamlines and the monentum itself of the Southward elongation of the PV from beyond 300 hours to the end of the run.

High pressure over over SE Idaho and a scooting low pressure system to our South. This time period remains of interest.

Getting more impressive every run. Cross-polar flow and quick moving disturbances. Depending on whether we can put down some snow cover will determine if we have a wintery landscape to go along with the frigid temperatures. Any snow cover would certainly enhance even lower temperatures.

A slight change of plans. Improvement in the MJO, tropical forcing and for the first time in a while we have a SOI reading of - 7.63 today. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 7 Jan 2022 1011.09 1008.10 -7.63 10.53 9.97

Something to watch. Also, as previously stated, an active pattern with decent clipper potential, and eventially possible SECS.

Suggest buying extra chapstick and Aveeno