frd

There is another period of interest around Feb 24 th to the 26 th.

Placement of high pressure too far East at hour 186 , I thought we needed it further West.

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1889876364268085283 Tomer states this "After the upcoming cold air outbreak, parts of the Northeast may be on track to end up with a rare trifecta of below average temperatures in all 3 winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb)." However, I am thinking in the snow department many areas of the country did not do well in the snow department. Lack of true bombs, Miller A storms, etc., despite a couple. Must be the Nina backdrop and lack of phasing storms and of course lack of a STJ. So much for climate change day after tomorrow storms.

Crazy cold the middle of next week, I imagine some energy for a storm as well.

Hmm, a beach-water snowstorm, a.k.a. beach and Tidewater snow event. Interesting that you do not see it extend significantly NE to graze Cape Cod. More or less another semi-gradient storm, maybe this one is beginning an evolution which rolled forward leads to a more regional wide SECS event near the 23 to 25 th time period.

Pathetic based on potential.

The suspense builds ....... If you build it they will come

AO going positive faster, wondering the implications if correct.

Typical issue, if not our snow climo would be much higher. Another way to miss besides the North , East and South issues.

Your not going to get a HECS without a parking lot in the Atlantic. You need everything to slow down. As psu stated before, in a Nina you are needing a super powerful vortex in the Atlantic to log jam the flow and allow storms to slow.

6 High pressure systems and a block keep it South, not surprised. But, yes, its one op model at 210 hours, but I have seen that track and tendency ( de-amp ) over and over this winter so far.

So cool, and fun ! A win - win. Well, a win for the kids and a win for posting the lastest maps. All good !

WOOF !!!! Bring it home psu !!!! I beg you ..... That is an Epic look .

And keeps the long range thread "HOT "

Your not concerned about the seaonal trends, and results so far ? Whether the blocking is TPV or -AO induced it is resulting in the same outcomes, snowfall favored South.

Dover, DE to the beaches have been the winners this winter so far, and that looks to continue today. Not getting my hopes up, so far this winter season DC has more snow than I do, so does parts of the deep South. Need something dramatic to happen, which I think does not happen even though I talk about the - AO The negative AO is jack shit without a juicy STJ You need that STJ to bring in the goods from the land of almonds to hit the our favored over - running zone. These lame POS waves with with over the top blocking are not doing it up North in this forum. Even with short wave lenghts and more seasonal warmth battling to bring the buds up North the jackpot snowfall zones have been South.

If that happens it is still a fail, and it further reduces the historical connection between favorable indices and measurable snowfall.

Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO. A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed. This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well.

Highest risk might be a miss to the East for us, or at the least an issue the further North you go, despite the higher mean. Blocking still being worked out by the models. Have to check out the latest AO. I believe the NP block might trend even stonger and last longer as well.

Meh

https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/1889003317369696267 I post link this for the mind bending animation, not the source, but look at the wave breaking in the NW Atlantic and watch the West Coast and up to Alaska improvements as the model see the MJO phase 8 arrives. Also, a tendency possible between days 10 and days 15 to 16 for multiple threats arriving out of the TN Valley.

Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral.

Not very inspiring. After my 3 inches of snow tomorrow night I am thinking about beach season. I don't trust models. Seasonal trend and all.

Once again true winter storm criteria way South. The warning level drought continues. Onto late month.

WSW here but not Philly, sorry @Ralph Wiggum. Interesting depiction of the Northern extent of the watch. Matches the ENE motion of the storm, however wondering about coastal enhancement for some.