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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Exactly, seasonal trends so far, combined with climo, Nina, etc., all seem to converge on a less impactful event away from the coast. Of course, there can still be positive changes, but those seem to be fading for areas to the West. But, even some snow combined with high winds and cold temps will make for a nice winter landscape. @CAPE seems to be in a good location and I have faith in @MillvilleWx latest thoughts that here in Delaware we can still get a decent event. Outside the models is the luck factor which is still in play for some. On to the NAM
  2. frd
    Yes, in Middletown, DE, so hopefully I have better odds, we will see. Hopefully we all score across the board with an over running event in early February. Do you have a favored time frame for early Feb? Last I checked was near Feb 6 th or 7 th. But, that was days ago.
  3. frd
    These events, as you know, are much more realistic in terms of happening for our region , as well as easier to forecast versus what is on the table ( or off the table ) for this Friday and Saturday.
  4. frd
    Holy crap !!!!!!
  5. frd
    Source region should be frigid, while we may experience another PV displacement or elongation into Central Canada. Crazy look at hour 384.
  6. frd
    In a general fashion there are some improvements on the NAM early in the run, later in the run I place less faith on the outcome in terms of the phasing.
  7. frd
    Still way too east for us Might keep trending West, as well as several intense members out there in terms of pressure.
  8. frd
    Pretty cool time series.
  9. frd
    @psuhoffman made mention of this general orientation and currently things are falling into place with an incredible N to S dive of energy. Still a balancing act towards coastal hugger if too ampliufied to the other extreme of a miss wide right.
  10. frd
    EPS continues to improve at hour 120.
  11. frd
    18z
  12. frd
    Several times the mean was 6 inches and zero snow fell within the forecast timeframe. Beyond these maps the only thing worse is the surreal control model. Never is it even close to reality.
  13. frd
    This is encouraging, even if I don't trust the EPS, but I am a sucker. Seriously though, no cutter solutions there.
  14. frd
    The @psuhoffmanstorm. Hey I said it Hopefully performs like the @CAPE storm, dropping 6.25 inches here.
  15. frd
    Can you clarify the period of interest that you mentioned, do you feel that the potential exists for a moderate event for the coastal plain during the time of the Jan. 25th to the 30th?
  16. frd
    Total loss of any trust in that model , EPS included. Waste your time and get your excitment up for a POS model. Can not even get close to a correct forecast a few days away.
  17. frd
    Euro is not the same model as years ago. And, ROI tracking snow events is going negative.
  18. frd
    How is it possible both the Euro operational and EPS are out done by the GFS ? I thought from a physics standpoint they are superior to the GFS especially at this range.
  19. frd
  20. frd
    From Walt Drag this AM. Posted 33 minutes ago East coast snowstorm potential 21st-22nd Atlanta to NYC-Boston: Uncertainty exists on best target, and also where its all snow or freezing rain-sleet. The greatest uncertainty for me is the NYC-BOSTON-I84 corridor. No matter, there does appear to be a strong likelihood of a 5-10" snowfall, especially NC-VA-MD-DE.
  21. frd
    EPS track would suggest a cold smoke event for inland areas , actually even coastal areas would cash in according to the EPS. But, it is early amd would like to see additional models jump onboard. However, the pattern does support a storm in this period, and the time frame after this as well.
  22. frd
    I know you're longing at the opportunity to drive to the beach and view another coastal blizzard but I prefer not to. Let us hope things change slightly by the week of the 24th . There appears to be the possibility of a wave breaking event that could cause a transient negative NAO, if so, maybe the coast of plain can get some sort of a moderate all snow event .
  23. frd
    Simply incredible
  24. frd
    Need to score in the next 2 weeks, as bluewave stated on the NYC forum, the pattern looks to break down at the end of the month. from bluewave below: 'Let’s hope we can cash in in this +PNA -EPO while we have it in late January. The latest ensembles moved to the EPS idea of a pattern reversal in early February. The big ridge pulls back to the Aleutians allowing a more neutral to eventually -PNA in early February."
  25. frd
    Still looking forward to what may, or may not happen, late month after this recent fiasco. Maybe @CAPE and I can score a moderate hit and have it stick around a while. I settle for a ground blizzard.
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