frd

I am suffering a seizure now. Stop the lines stop the lines

The look here is very close to the displaced and elongated PV , PV streamlines shown on Stratobserver. As the PV evolves over time as shown by the streamlines various weather impacts may occur at our lattitude in Feb. Intially it looks like over-running events and then morphs into potential Manitoba Mauler developers off VA. Maybe even a hybrid MillerA/B. All options are on the table IMHO. Of note as well is that the PNA may not go negative as quickly, also looking for a wave breaking event for the possibility for Atlantic blocking for a short window, also worth mentioning is that AO is forecast to dive back down rather sharply and abruptly. This may put into motion some winter element as well in the equation during early Feb. Here are a couple images from yesterdays view of the forecasted streamlines. Also the look at 384 hours in thre last image is insane.

For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern.

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

Seems the entire PV shifts South putting us under battle zone with Frigid air to our North and waves moving along the boundary to our South.

We are due!

RGEM wayyyy NW

No, sorry.

Interesting data here that seems to support the Euro at handling 500 millibars for hours 72 and 96 slightly better ( reduced average error ) than other models.

Compare

Yes it is. EPS supports the OP with many strong members.

Hmm....

EPS members look better, many more are West, expect EPS snowfall to move West as well.

EPS looking to move West.

Delaware and Eastern Shore close up. Sweet !

Better for @CAPE

If correct about the RAOB data and the Euro doing better out West then maybe the GFS will be somewhat incorrect with its 12z run evolution. Heard it from a met.

Believe the Euro has been over amping all systems so far this winter. But yes, good points.

So bascially I am hearing the Euro has already caved to the handling of the feature out in the Four corners. I think I will only use the GFS Op from now on.

If the Euro caves fully to the GFS can you seriously even consider it useful any longer for East Coast Snowstorms? Four days before the event you had the EPS, Euro Op and Control with decent to very robust snowfall projections for our area. I know it has been pointed out that the GFS Op has had a significant upgrade, but for the GFS to match or possibly exceed in this case the forecast abilities of the Euro ensembles/OP. etc so relatively close to game time is to me stunning.

Well in hindsight, ( caveat..... so far ) HM's tweet might end up being correct, in stating that his expectations were zero for this area with this type of storm. Actually, he was referring to Philly so that makes the statement even more depressing for areas South and West. But maybe we can be saved by Jack Sillin.

Extensive area of snowfall along the East Coast at hour 72. Impressive !

Pretty crazy. Liking what I am seeing .

Looks better so far at hour 39.