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Ha ha , wonder is Simon calls his wife hey, phwoar... I had to Google it too !

Even though he is off by 1 for the record, it is still pretty remarkable and the GEFS is near 1060 mb. Wow ! Here is the JMA at 1065

Several interesting developments to keep track of moving forward: The rapid snow cover extent in the NH, and thoughts about the Hunga-Tonga Volcano erruption in Dec. 2021 and effects on the PV. ...

As many here already know, the skill of the CFS model for the next month is highest after the 27 th day of the month prior to the forecast given. Therefore, the current modeling by the CFS for this coming December may not be very far-fetched. Of note, there is a signal here later in December for increased moisture potential in the East. Might be from a Miller A or Miller B, hard to tell, but the signal is there.

Morning view from the GEFS I believe this is near @CAPE 's favored window for snowfall.

As @Bob Chill mentioned there is a relationship between December strong - NAO ( - 1.2 or less ) and the following months of January and February. Data from Allan Huffman

Agreed. I don't want to set expectations too high. Happy to track the evolution of the cold and maybe we avoid the recent string of warm days after the 20th of December in recent years.

Regarding the block.

Only concern is patience. Going to take time for the trough to get established in the East, most likely by mid December. Colder air will be slow to move in from the NW. Snow before mid December seems confined to areas far North and Northwest. What we really need is upstream ridging and improvements from the Pac. A - NAO, even this powerful, does not gaurantee a sizeable snowfall in the Northern Mid Atlantic this time of year. I would think by the third week of December things look more favorable for snow potential in our region. How long a favorable snow pattern lasts, when and if we get one, is hard to tell. Certainly appears we will be in a period of - AO and - NAO, along with weak zonal winds during December. We also need to monitor the West based block in the weeks ahead to see how it evolves, as it will play a major role in cold air delivery and storm track.

Came across this today. I knew the multi day impact from Ian and the Easterly/NE fetch was going to be impressive, but these drone images of North Wildwood, NJ are epic.

Low here of 36 last night. Isolated frost which was unexpected, certainly not something you have seen this early in the season the past few years. I noticed the frost was mostly on the neighbor's lawns which were mowed yesterday at a very low height .

You are going to need it next weekend !

Surf zone forecasts starting to ramp up with significant beach erosion and wave action for this Sunday and Monday. As for the Easterly fetch, I recall back to the President Day Blizzard of 2003. part of that great 02-03 Winter. We had a 2,000 mile long Easterly fetch I believe, causing many areas to turn over to sleet. Here we measured 24 inches. Had it not been for the sleet we would have easily achieved 35 inches. > Here is the surf zone forecast for this Monday, October 3, 2022. Of note is the extended period of East and ENE Winds onto the beaches, beginning on Friday and going through Monday.

The WPC nudged the rainfall North a bit versus previous forecasts. Still a killer cut-off.

Are you afraid that would wash your seed away, did you cover it with something? Soil moisture which had been as low as 14% in certain locations have improved with the recent rains and currently have gotten up to about 28%. Meanwhile 5-day average soil temperatures have come down quite a bit and now stands somewhere close to 75 degrees F. I believe cool season grasses germinate best at a 5-day average soil temperature of 70° F.

@donsutherland1 Don S in the NY forum posted this snippet below within his daily summary yesterday. I find it very interesting if you are looking forward to increased rainfall oppurtunities in September. @CAPE might like the potential if history repeats itself. < On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. > I added this from https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ show the last 6 days. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 20 Aug 2022 1015.40 1014.60 -4.98 8.88 11.65 19 Aug 2022 1012.52 1013.50 -15.78 9.07 11.81 18 Aug 2022 1010.75 1014.55 -32.90 9.67 12.06 17 Aug 2022 1014.51 1014.00 -6.74 10.75 12.59 16 Aug 2022 1016.31 1013.20 9.04 10.76 12.81 15 Aug 2022 1016.42 1012.50 13.96 10.37 12.88

Middletown, DE and Cheasapeake City City was hit very hard. Numerous trees down, Pine trees and Oaks especially. Local flooding, I estimated winds from the damage to have been near 70 mph, maybe more. I missed the storm , as I was driving back from Chestertown, MD. Very impressive swath of damage for sure.

You did relatively well this winter considering, I basically lost interest after mid February without any type of upstream blocking or negative nao it was very difficult to cash in. I am looking for to a walk on Sunday morning when the temperatures are forecasted to be in the lower 20s , this might be the last time this winter we get to the lower to mid-20s for overnight lows.

Cold Smoke there

Looking much better

Always look forward to your forecast! You verify well. My location forthis event is bordering on your 4 to 8. Bring on the snow

I am suffering a seizure now. Stop the lines stop the lines

The look here is very close to the displaced and elongated PV , PV streamlines shown on Stratobserver. As the PV evolves over time as shown by the streamlines various weather impacts may occur at our lattitude in Feb. Intially it looks like over-running events and then morphs into potential Manitoba Mauler developers off VA. Maybe even a hybrid MillerA/B. All options are on the table IMHO. Of note as well is that the PNA may not go negative as quickly, also looking for a wave breaking event for the possibility for Atlantic blocking for a short window, also worth mentioning is that AO is forecast to dive back down rather sharply and abruptly. This may put into motion some winter element as well in the equation during early Feb. Here are a couple images from yesterdays view of the forecasted streamlines. Also the look at 384 hours in thre last image is insane.

For once this actually fits the potential of the overrunning pattern.