frd

Pathetic based on potential.

The suspense builds ....... If you build it they will come

AO going positive faster, wondering the implications if correct.

Typical issue, if not our snow climo would be much higher. Another way to miss besides the North , East and South issues.

Your not going to get a HECS without a parking lot in the Atlantic. You need everything to slow down. As psu stated before, in a Nina you are needing a super powerful vortex in the Atlantic to log jam the flow and allow storms to slow.

6 High pressure systems and a block keep it South, not surprised. But, yes, its one op model at 210 hours, but I have seen that track and tendency ( de-amp ) over and over this winter so far.

So cool, and fun ! A win - win. Well, a win for the kids and a win for posting the lastest maps. All good !

WOOF !!!! Bring it home psu !!!! I beg you ..... That is an Epic look .

And keeps the long range thread "HOT "

Your not concerned about the seaonal trends, and results so far ? Whether the blocking is TPV or -AO induced it is resulting in the same outcomes, snowfall favored South.

Dover, DE to the beaches have been the winners this winter so far, and that looks to continue today. Not getting my hopes up, so far this winter season DC has more snow than I do, so does parts of the deep South. Need something dramatic to happen, which I think does not happen even though I talk about the - AO The negative AO is jack shit without a juicy STJ You need that STJ to bring in the goods from the land of almonds to hit the our favored over - running zone. These lame POS waves with with over the top blocking are not doing it up North in this forum. Even with short wave lenghts and more seasonal warmth battling to bring the buds up North the jackpot snowfall zones have been South.

If that happens it is still a fail, and it further reduces the historical connection between favorable indices and measurable snowfall.

Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO. A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed. This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well.

Highest risk might be a miss to the East for us, or at the least an issue the further North you go, despite the higher mean. Blocking still being worked out by the models. Have to check out the latest AO. I believe the NP block might trend even stonger and last longer as well.

Meh

https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/1889003317369696267 I post link this for the mind bending animation, not the source, but look at the wave breaking in the NW Atlantic and watch the West Coast and up to Alaska improvements as the model see the MJO phase 8 arrives. Also, a tendency possible between days 10 and days 15 to 16 for multiple threats arriving out of the TN Valley.

Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral.

Not very inspiring. After my 3 inches of snow tomorrow night I am thinking about beach season. I don't trust models. Seasonal trend and all.

Once again true winter storm criteria way South. The warning level drought continues. Onto late month.

WSW here but not Philly, sorry @Ralph Wiggum. Interesting depiction of the Northern extent of the watch. Matches the ENE motion of the storm, however wondering about coastal enhancement for some.

If I may, please note that the AO link to the SER will be broken once we get to the end of next week, after that the typical block evolution should increase SECS potential. For example, you can that today on the 264 hour ECM ensemble forecast......... WOOF !

We have a very long ways to go. The block may not be conducive enough for this to be a real threat East of the Fall Line.

Regarding the - AO 4 SD block. This is how we are failing in my area I would imagine. Great post by @bluewave below, which is from the NY forum. Goes to show you even a - 4 SD AO block is no gaurantee of a significnat snowfall. This is the second time in 4 years this is happening with a - 4 SD AO. You can think what you want but somrthing is not working like it should in the snowfall department. The Southeast Ridge would link up only sporadically with weaker to moderate -AO events from the 1950s through the 1990s .The best known stronger event from that era was 1-9-98. It could be related to the stronger Pacific Jet and the record warm Atlantic SSTs. So it’s the frequency and intensity which has been something new during the 2020s. The coming event this week will be the 2nd -4 link up in just a little over 2 years. The south based block in December 2020 allowed BGM to get the 40” jackpot instead of closer to NYC. It lead to the first snowfall shut out for us back in December 2022 with similar past La Niña and -AO levels. Then the March 2023 pattern followed a similar script. Now we are getting mixed precipitation events with this present south based -AO block. The 11-12th event may be one of the few events without mixing issues in NYC. Interior spots that build up a big enough snowpack could become susceptible to flooding if one or more of the coming storms rides too far north. 2nd -4 -AO in only a little over 2 years this week linking up with the Southeast Ridge -4 -AO December 2022 linking up Southeast Ridge 2022 12 18 -4.151 2022 12 19 -3.671 2022 12 20 -3.326 Earlier era linkage during 97-98 super El Niño 1998 1 9 -3.987 1998 1 10 -4.269

Pathetic shit show. WTF.

Would not be surprised to have the GFS trend North next 24 to 48 hours.