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I'm not even sure if it's wise to look at outcomes that far back.

Eric Webb @webberweather It’s easy to spot Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves (blue dashed lines) propagating quickly thru the mjo envelope (black dashed line) the next few weeks on the forecast VP200a Hovmöller (left) This is largely why you’re seeing these loop-de-loops on the RMM phase plots (right)

Snowcover and cold both become established in Canada by early December. This should help as the cold gradually pushes South with time.

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 22m Well for all you #SSWE people out there. Today's 00z EPS showed all members (100%) showing a 10mb U wind reversal over the north pole around 11/28 to 11/29. The implications, are enhanced blocking risk in December and the possibility that the SPV will be further receptive to weakening later in the Winter which could influence the mid/late Winter.

Warming events taking place at both the North Pole and the South Pole with assist the MJO in progressing into phase 8 in December.

Didn't Webb say the - NAO was going to lock in ?

Another sub forum poster mentioned that despite a general - PNA in December, ( if that were to occur ) leads to the following Jan.'s PNA to average positive. This is under similiar ENSO conditions.

Looking at the models this morning, the MJO, and the various indicies I am thinking Pac might need some time to improve moving into December. What are your updated thoughts on the evolution of the Pac, such as the EPO and the PNA domains. Of note to me is how active the rainfall has been in California recently.

Thats does not seem to match what I am looking at. There are many MJO models and many possible outcomes. As @psuhoffman mentioned a couple days ago, having a great Pac in December, versus a - NAO is a more realistic path to cold and snow in our area, and I totally agree. The Pac has screwed us several times in recent years and the - NAO is hard to predict. Its occurrence ( -NAO ) does not in any way guarantee snow. The block one year dived far to the SW that we warmed up and Texas had a blizzard. Another year it linked with the SER, and yet another year Canada was so warm the -NAO was useless. I would say a lot in December depends on the Pac. If things fall apart there then the hopes of a wintry December will not happen.

What are your thoughts on the SST profile in the NW Atlantic, North Central Atlantic outside of the MJO, QBO and strat in regards to the appearence of the warm, cold, warm tripole shown in this image below ? ( - NAO ) Is it significant, or will it change in a week or two and be meaningless ?

I don't give a crap about the Canadian warming later in the month, say what you want, I just like the pretty colors.

There was also this Rehoboth Beach experienced a significant blizzard and "bomb cyclone" on January 4, 2018, which brought heavy snow, strong winds, and whiteout conditions. The storm resulted in a blizzard warning for Sussex County, an estimated 8 to 12 inches of snow, and a Level 1 driving warning issued by the Governor.

Certainly seems that way. Little skill outlook, more so just climo, Nina and warming.

Focus on Jan 2026 from Allan Huffman @RaleighWx I posted my winter forecast on my patreon page with reasoning last week. But I will post my maps here just for reference/accountability. Last year my winter forecast stunk so take it for what it is worth.

Lastest updated snowfall probs for December from the ECMWF. This is the fourth month in a row with sub normal December snowfall. I would think with all the changes taking place over the HL during the next weeks a lot can change in regards to December snowfall in the East. .

Commodity Wx Group @commoditywx Models debating speed of -EPO arrival with American fastest and European slowest; both have exhibited competitive skill in past 30 days, but AIFS ensemble middle ground may be best answer.

Impressive, but next week we warm up.

The delivery of the coldest air missed us to the SW and West. The SE and other locations had the largest negative departures plus snow showers. You can see below

AO forecasts continue more negative, now at - 3 SD

Thunder and lightning here. Not as crazy as where @CAPE is located, but much more rain than forecasted. Still more to arrive from my SW shortly.

Paul Roundy @PaulRoundy1 · 13h The algorithm is based entirely on outgoing longwave radiation data in the tropics. The OLR diagnostic algorithm is explained and assessed here: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.962 And the association with the extratropical circulation is diagnosed through the method of constructed analogs: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/7/mwr-d-12-00223.1.xml Since the algorithm does not include any explicit information about the ocean (it includes what is implicit in OLR anomalies), and since the OLR signal is projected forward based on how similar OLR signals moved in the past, it will do poorly when the ocean subsurface is undergoing strong changes. In the short term (e.g., next 2 months), the results are reasonable, but in this particular event, there is risk of El Niño being forced by strong subseasonal variability (February through May). Should that occur, the verification data would diverge from the forecast.

Lastest AO update 11/09/25 - an increased negative forecast without a return to going positive. Looking good !

From Paul Roundy, this shows - NAO and Greenland blocking might be a frequent player during the upcoming winter.

Latest ECMWF update regarding the 45 day 60 degree N Zonal Mean 10mb Wind Forecast. Of note, the ensemble average in this update is slighter higher than the previous ensemble forecast, however, still bullish for a weak PV.