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When the PNA was neutral the entire North America continent was warm, not we have cold building in Canada but a - PNA.

Where was the Holiday period snow storms. WeatherBell seasonal not doing well.

What do you think about Feb ? Some forecasters who went with above normal snow totals really need Feb to deliver. Here the streak of less than 1 inch of snow is insanely long. Changes in the West Pac, hyper warm pool, marine heatwaves, and warmth everywhere is screwing up the outcomes with this Nino.

Agreed, we knew it was going to happen, but in the last 24 to 72 hours the arctic cold trended even further West. Seems as if wave breaking and the Greenland block pushed the arctic air further WSW in Canada. I imagine if things were different upstream, and if the PAC profile was more favorable the colder airmass would have come further East, versus further West.

Sadly, I admit I am bummed to see winter hit out West first with such a fury. The - AO and the - NAO have only muted the warmth here. I am interested to see whether Tomer's stats about the peak of a - NAO and its relationship afterward on average to Mid Atlantic snowstorms. He stated 3 to 5 days after the - NAO peak is when to watch for a possible threat. That would be near the 18 th to the 22nd. Meanwhile he also posted this about the failed early Jan SSWE. Jim chimes in with how active it is going to be in the States over the next 10 to 15 days. Next Weds looks like a high wind threat here followed by a second cutter, and then a third system near hour 240 on the high resolution ECM. which I am not sure how that will play out.

I believe this happened several years back, what was a direct Arctic air mass modeled to drop SE from central Canada into the East ended up becoming a hybrid Blue Northern responsible for the devastating Texas power grid collapse. I hope your first potential scenario does not occur.

More than a squirrel sounds awesome in this new base state . Meanwhile Tip talking about 1977 in the NE forum . Bring it !

Just checked out the latest AO forecast. Members going even more negative than yesterday. Consensus on - 4 SD AO. Some members take it to - 6 SD. Wow !!

A look where snow on snow could occur. Ha, I can dream.

Pretty crazy look on long range guidance last night. GFS has big potential. Have not seen the GEFS but @CAPEposted the overnight Euro ensemble and it looks enticing. Nice wave breaking - wonder if we might get a clipper exploding on the VA capes near the 17 th to the 22 nd

Yep, I am excited for this time period.

Looks like potential for a clipper. Been a long time. Also, a Manitoba Mauler would be acceptable as well. That vortex is almost South of Hudson Bay, interesting possibilities if this look comes true.

Increased likelihood of a deeper and longer duration - AO.

good thread, and talking about the this very thing.

I thought last I read it was the EPS and GEPS versus the GEFS. Also, thought I read the GEFS was trending to the EPS in the long range. Period of interest was near and after the 20th. I for one believe we must have the Pac on our side to get snow, versus anything else.

Any thoughts on what happens after this event as we approach mid month ? Happy New Year too !

Rather impressive heat fluxes during the next 10 days.

Check this out -NAO and then the SWWE Long duration - AO and - NAO upcoming

I believe this raises the bar for cold and stormy weather here, while enhancing cold air intrusions after Jan 20 th. Robust agreement here.

SSWE becoming more and more likely. AO expected to dive soon, and then we await on the after effects of the warming. Too soon to know where the coldest anomalies are directed to.

Your in top form @CAPE. Appreciate the updates. Not posting as much because I have suffered medical issues and surgery, but your posts cheer me up every morning. I am really hopeful for snowfall in early Jan. Things looking better and better.

Might gamble and take a PTO day for Jan. 8th. The second disturbance sure looks promising at this range . Upstream looks better as well leading to the colder outcome.

That was a great memory. So much excitment. I remember Accu weather with a forecast of 6 to 8 inches for the beaches of southern NJ the day before. This might have been the storm the Canadian sniffed out that JB claimed his greatest victory to that point calling for a I 95 snowstorm when all others were a scrapper. Watching that snow shield move North and forecasts changing was a big thrill. I also recall the winds after the storm blowing snow back into areas that were cleared. A great memory psu !

Seems very typical in years past. I am sure he is celebrating. My Christmas day high temp has increased to 55 degrees, not too bad, however, still waiting on a white Christmas. By Friday we get back to normal temps.