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frd

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Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Interesting
  2. frd
    Wonder if we tap into some of this arctic air later in Feb. Brrr.
  3. frd
    The - AO looks even better today.
  4. frd
    Rather consistent signal there, been there for several days.
  5. frd
    Wonder how far South suppression is ?
  6. frd
    The West based block increases the odds for a more significant snowfall event for our area I believe. I was just commenting yesterday about the CMC and how it might over do blocking, but as you mentioned, other models have trended to it . Awesome looks there !!
  7. frd
    No quick recovery for the PV after the rapid weakening in two weeks. The u-mean 10 hPa 60N does not return to the ERA5 mean until later in March.
  8. frd
  9. frd
  10. frd
    You need to visit other forums in the East and conduct therapy, because if you think its a bummer here at times other forums are even worse. I totally get it though. Its been a very long time for some areas. I understand the frustration.
  11. frd
    The CMC is always more bullish on HL blocking in general it seems. In both domains.
  12. frd
    So you are thinking the pattern change lasts about two weeks and then thats it? So you are going to route of the Pac not cooperating and breaking down the pattern that sets up in mid-Feb by early March? Some are going with a cold and possibly snowy March. I have my bar set low, despite the weeklies, and ensembles. Been fooled too many times in the past.
  13. frd
    Do you believe it though ? Thought we are headed for a - EPO + PNA pattern in mid Feb.
  14. frd
    3 D Vortex current Hour 384 forecast from the GFS. Notice the bagginess and displacement North South orientation, along with hints of a split at lower levels. Overall positive signs for the HL.
  15. frd
    Party on Chuck
  16. frd
    As for the - NAO arriving later in Feb, looks like game on.
  17. frd
  18. frd
    CANSIPS for Feb . Basically cooler but seems like an extended dry period. Versus split flow in the long range by various ensembles. I imagine need to see how high + the PNA gets. Too much of a good thing and we might go drier.
  19. frd
    The signal for the mid month weakening has been there for a bit combined with slower winds and a gradual movement of the PV Southward in a wobbling fashion through hours 384.
  20. frd
    I believe at the peak of the pattern and possibly afterwards for a bit we will have some bizarre storm evolutions, such as loops, stalls and retrogrades. Looks crazy.
  21. frd
    Many photos online from the various snow storms of 1958 in our forecast area. Rather severe for many locations. If 1958 plays out its going get nuts.
  22. frd
    Latest trends with the AO are very encouraging. Also a weakening of the SPV mid February including a displacement event. HL progression in Early to Mid February is enticing for snow lovers in the East .
  23. frd
    He is a very well respected MET.
  24. frd
    Some very cold air is going to be pulled down during mid Feb. Some crazy snow depths in Alaska and extreme cold.
  25. frd
    From Tomer , here is his update from 5 days ago, so keep that in mind. He seems bullish for a Moderate to Major Mid Atlantic Snowstorm January 25 Update I typically like to provide general windows for snow potentials once the picture becomes somewhat clearer; in the following days since this post, I feel increasingly confident in narrowing down a potential window between around February 15-25 for the peak potential of a moderate-major Mid Atlantic and Northeast snowstorm, though a low potential exists as early as the 2nd week of February.
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