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HM also thought like you. He believed in a Northern Mid-Atlantic SECS to a MECS. Weather is fascinating.

You mean a snow hole or a Black Hole ?

Remarkable the amounts of snow in VA. Without question the Southern areas did well this winter. Despite a -5.25 SD AO our area did not get the worse of the recent cold, snowy winter weather, but nation-wide it was much more severe in Tenn. Valley, Plains, and the areas well South of us. The white out in VA. and other areas was crazy earlier this week. The depth of the arctic air mass via the severe AO was amazing in the Midwest, and in the Plains. The long range control model and other model snowfall ensembles as usual did a shit show with tons of snow over the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Seasonal tendency won out mostly. We are lucky we got what we did. Areas of Florida had more snow this season than Philly. That was on the local ABC network news last night.

This is funny.

Where have I heard that before. Bring on spring and the sun, my vitamin D levels are low.

You must have made a pack with the Devil. That's the only way it will snow.

GFS with a more robust - EPO signal, Euro not as much, Euro AI even less.

Your spot was gold this year, mine was tin.

Define lowlands. Because here I am below climo. @CAPE did much better than me to my far SSW. Seasonal trend/outcomes sucked here.

Winter storm longe range and medium range forecasting is humbling for the pros and mets. Even HM thought this was a go. I am glad I learned from previous disappointments not to get too invested or believe modeling 100%. Also, consensus does not equate to final outcome. Happy to have had a couple winter advisory events.

Seems winter is the hardest season for model accuracy. Is that correct?

How much time do we have left for a significant change to more robust storm solution?

29.16 Baro here , wow ! Clearing line moving East, taking the dog for a walk soon before the 60 mph winds arrive. Mount Holly states highest wind potential here between 4:00 PM and 10:00 PM this evening. However, winds can gust to 50 m.p.h. until 6:00 PM tomorrow.

Appears we lost the follow up threats, as blocking is diminishing. I am OK with Spring arriving.

Bingo. This makes 22 out of 24 failure model depictions for my area the last 7 years. Go with multi year consensus it is not going to snow above minor levels and you be correct most times. Also, models IMHO get too much credit. I guess for weenies it's a hard pill to swallow.

Yes, ENE trajectory, a good sign.

I would love that, and the cold temps as well. Maybe with omega threes and CoQ10 I can last until we get the next 12 inch snowfall here.

Amazing how steadfast the seasonal trend and snowfall distribution has been to date. How we get there might vary in each snowfall , weak low, fast Northern jet, overpowering PV, etc. I like to be hopeful, as you mentioned previously, maybe things improve enough by say 50 miles or more to get the higher totals shifted more NW during the next 48 hours. And, please not the other way.

Ensembles did well. GFS gets some credit. Last night folks were cra cra WTF. I still like my chances here.

GFS can score a win. It has happened before, believe or not.

In all honesty models get too much credit for the belief they are going to verify at long range, and even mid range. If this falls apart will re-think time spent getting excited over snow events that never happen.

JB is due for a stellar call. I recall the early 2000's when only he nailed a storm to come North, ( think he followed the Canadian model ) it did and caused massive snows in our area. The JB index is at a ATH.

Could certainly see an ideal capture scenario tomorrow, or even Monday with a large region wide MECS with some areas HECS. It would be silly to think the GFS is correct, or any other model for that fact this far out. We all know we are dealing with big time potential, just need that match to time things correctly for snow lovers.

Central and Eastern PA., yikes. @Lowershoresadness must be happy.

With the dynamics and the set-up I would think the highest probabilty of a screw job would be SE, too just too far offshore. Almost reminds me in a way of the brutal cold preceeding the bomb cyclone of Feb 2018. Incredible snows just missed our area, but I believe there was a beach blizzard in lower De. I am not expert by any means, but this set up has a lot of energy potential and the severe - AO this weekend and HA event NAO phase reversal upcoming still excites me.