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Its about time! Sounds good and coincides with all the various seasonal models. Wonder if the SOI will turn back down and stay down in Feb. We were trending nicely negative. But last couple days in the positives. If you are into AAM and GWO I see those are improving shortly, as is the potential for the SSWE to effect the troposhere. Both of these shoud get us good blocking. My desire is to get the -NAO to manifest itself over time in the Davis Straights area. For my area, thats money. Seems the models have this happening by retrograding the block West over time. Daily contribution to SOI calculation 11.26

Thanks as always Don. Will be interesting to see the outcome of the MJO and the performance of the GFS versus the EPS and GEFS at higher lattitudes later on in the month and maybe the GFS will move back into the EPS corner.

Great write up Don, thank you ! Just wondering whether you have any insights into something that was puzzling me, in regards to the NAO. The GEFS and the EPS forecast later in the month the development of a -NAO. I believe most seasonal models such as the Euro, UkMet, JMA and even the CFS have a strong -NAO signal and a corresponding Greenland block that depending what long range model you look at retros it later in Feb into a Davis Straights block. MY question is why did the GFS and the GFS upgrade turn on a dime in the last 24 hours totally changing the Pacific and Altantic blocking signatures, it was not a gradual change but a sudden change. Yet, the GEFS and the EPS as of today show a -NAO developing late in the month. Any ideas Don why this is ? Thanks as always. ( I heard it might be due to the Pac and the MJO phase but nothing concrete ) Also, if time permits with the sustained -SOI do you forsee a possible coupling finally of the Nino ocean and atmosphere by later in Feb possibly? I believe @bluewavemade a post either today or yesterday where he felt there was a chance at that happening. Thanks

Just got back from taking a walk with the dog in this wonderful weather, love it ! Measured about 3.25 inches here so far with very light snow still falling.

We all know its fun to look at and not take seriously, but it is encouraging to see models put that much snow out, and it is not even Feb yet.

@MillvilleWx If what I posted before was porn, I guess this is Triple XXX Porn .....

Opps !!!! My bad :-)

Thanks Don, much appreciated !

Don, any idea whether you think we still see a severe drop in the AO sometime in the next few weeks? At times is was talked about, and the various longe range modeling has blocking at top, yet when I check the CPC for the AO ensemble forecast it has been varying. Granted, negative, but not as much agreement on a big dive like there was a few days ago. In the background the SSWE continues and warming at the pole seems on target along with the hopeful lag effect of a -AO and eventual drop to negative with the NAO. Maybe the "steep" decline in the AO awaits a lag to hit, speculating later this month? Just wondering your thoughts on this, and maybe the CPC product is not the best indicator of the AO's furture forecast.

Thanks, I have read that we might transition back to moderation after the intial cold, but as of yesterday that window has gotten smaller. I have not checked today. The opinion of some is after any moderation we may lock into the cold longer, I imagine such as the weeklies are showing. Also seems to be issues with the MJO forecasts. I really thought we see a longer period of a -SOI. I was looking for a coupling of the Nino, and locking into a good pattern. Seems a lot of reshuffling is going on at this time. Not sure at times what to think really when I see the SOI and the MJO. I guess I am simply looking for things to be concerned about. Thanks for your insights !

@bluewave do you forsee the eventual retrogression as allowing the Pac jet to relax and openning the door to increased storms threats, or do you feel after the Pac improves extreme blocking may take over and be another means to deflect storms South. Was reading that some mets feel the real target zone significant snowfall the next 4 weeks is in the South. Yet, the look on the spculative 46 day snowfall from the Euro does not really indicate that, surprisingly max snowfall I think comes from missing storms to the East, as the it has the highest snowfall anamolies of the Mid Atlantic Coast. Any thoughts oi that? Thanks

So beautiful there. Seems like the Northern Alps and Central Europe get a lot of snow this week . This is from yesterday but its like Brr......

Did you say snow? Here we go again, thought you like to see this, the rich getting richer. The images of the drifts are simply nuts ! I believe you said your friend is over there.

Might be another outcome if we had better corner backs.

This is simply nuts

I feel bad for the kicker. Fell off my chair when I saw that last night. Even though the zone defense from the Bears held Foles in check Eagles did well. Did you hear that the zone defense is the one that gives Foles the most issues. What defense does the Saints play ? I almost think we have a chance against them.

You think the Eagles can win today? Even cover the spread, maybe take the Eagles with 6? I think we see the same indications form the SB game. If Foles looks good first 15 minutes , and can get the offense going, might win the game. And I thought Wallace was going to play last week still not able to. Lastly, this would be the week for Golden Tate to get 100 yards in the air, and be golden .

Isotherm, what is your take on March as it relates to the multiple VEI 3 or greater volcanic eruptions lately. I heard from some on the web and some pros at 33andrain we could see effects. Any thoughts on potential cooling effects ? I see there is a relationship between a lower solar cycle nearing a min and increased volcanic eruptions. Thanks. https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

Italy is the place to go https://weather.us/satellite/italy/satellite-hd-15min/20190104-1300z.html#play

Did go to Ireland, that was a very nice trip. My wife's friend lives there, so she was our tour guide. Made the trip less stressful.

Nice, my wife would like us to take a family vacation there in a couple years. So much to explore, so little time.

Yes, for the time being. I bet you enjoy taking a stroll with the dog over there, even more than the 32 inches you got a couple years ago. My tiny dog would need a GPS and doggie snow shoes....

It looks surreal. I would love to be able to walk amongst those drifts. Words do no justice if you are a snow lover. Your friend is lucky.

Wow

This is awesome information, Thanks, much appreciated. You really do take this strat area to a new level.