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Bob, have ever seen that type of anomaly before? My friend told me about it, he is a weather weenie. To him it was a first at that range. Not sure if he was simply messing with me.

Hmmm, looking at the weeklies and the HL, wonder whether we have seem our lowest temps for the winter ? Sure looks like early March is nasty temp-wise. Just need snow cover.

Its easy to lose track of what thread you are posting in sometimes, without scanning above , I forget sometimes.

They will bust like March 2001 , aka Pamela Anderson ..... ha ha Or, then again maybe not. Its a lottery, buy a ticket and enjoy the show !

LOL ha ha , really this time :-)

Weeklies look very good. March is winter-like. After the warm-up next week, goes right into extended winter. Looks active too !

I dissaprove of that High pressure location. It's right over my house and causing a split there in the snow. Boo

Are you aware how much Wes contributes to this update? I know when CWG came out in early Jan about the incoming possibility of the SSWE and the polar vortex visit Ventrice and Judah were included. I value Wes's input a lot ! If he were to say game on that would ease some folks concerns.

My mood this year about snow and cold is like an EKG, up and down in cycles, but soon I might be in arrest.

Answer: a few hours You have to have stamina this winter. Will test you to the bones !

Reaction to changes in the Pac/MJO. Tomorrow's run might be even better. I am starting to get slightly excited again. I like the GEFS seems to pick up on a trend many times. Did you see that the off hour runs of the Euro are not doing well ? Heard it from a met(s). They were studying it. I never did hear back as to the reason behind the poor verifications though.

Not sure whether the NAO going in our favor has to do with the processes HM described such as wave breaking, or if it has something to do with the wholesale changes in the SST profiles near and around Greenland, actually a portion of the Atlantic. I remember for years the theory of the tripole SST profile talked about by certain mets. Maybe we get several factors to work in our favor during Feb to produce a long lasting NAO block that eventually retros to the Davis Straights. Boy the look is sweet by Valentine's Day, if the PAC improves further near this date and afterward, could be in for multiple threats.

It's whatever it is. What's the difference. First, trying to make the point the model is wrong and second, regardless sleet, or snow, it would be ironic if those areas in the SE got all that frozen precip and we did not. I was not analyzing the thermals or the ratios.

Thats an outcome I can see happening. A high ROI 10 to 14 day period. Based simply on the fact the great pattern when it gets here is likely not to be of long duration but could provide multiple events. Nothing science based just due to the fact things change so fast his winter. The Pac might cooperate with the NAO but we have not seen the PAc lock into any great pattern for long. Look how fast the MJO went from 8 to 5 last time. Yes, some who say things might line up longer this time in our favor, but I rather play odds and say any great or good pattern will not last too long, but has high ticket potential.

Wonder if it has to do with SST distribution in the West Pac. Originaly it was the SSWE that caused chaos, but this seems to want to keep happening. JB advocated the cooler waters West of Aussie, (less convection) , (wrong ) but others were saying the Waters East of Aussie were extremely warm. Despite the over night set back, I bet it's two steps front and one step back and we get to the good looks in real time near the dates HM alludes to. Nothing has been once and done this winter except the time frame in early December that brought the decent pattern and the SE Snowstorm.

Meanwhile the GFS is trip'in ..... the SE with feet of snow. Sure

Looks not as good to me. The Pac will never cooperate. Not sure why HM would even use KU potential.

Nice to see digital snow, I think that's a prerequisite for the real deal.

Wish I were there with proper gear and a GPS

My underground shelter is stocked and ready. I have seen the coming ........ The end is here. Where is my Pink Floyd ............ Sheep

Yes, thats true. We would be in a prime time to cash in. There was some talk around from the strat guys including Earthlight, aka John Homenuk, that the date near Jan 21 st might be the day where the models sense the influence of the SSWE on the troposphere from downwelling. I mean the weeklies must be anticipating something in the HL from that for the look that they provide. I would watch the next several days for modeling changes. I hope this year provides more research on the effect of SSWE and the Pacific as it relates to the MJO and convection and heat release.

Thats the best the AO ensemble forecast has been in days. I know many MJO experts talk about how there are issues with models interpreting where the convection isd, they could be wrong, maybe you need to look at the entire Pacific to see what is happening to better understand and anticipate what the MJO will do. I know several mets stated that manner of looking at the MJO.

Which model is more accurate ? Models have been struggling, but I agree, any deviations from weakening or decay are an issue, unless it heads back to the better phases. Good things came along for certain locations when we were in phase 8 , but wow it chugged along !

Thanks bluewave. It seems the models are very sensitive to swings in the MJO, where they think the convection is, and the amplitude of the MJO as well. Your thoughts here make sense, I really feel the duration and nature of this SSWE has caused a longer lag effect ( speculation only ), but yes, when the MJO decays we should see the modeling improve. Thanks

You always post timey metrics , well done ! @bluewave Do you think the MJO is ruling the house this winter ? it sure seems that way. Also, I heard once the MJO is in the COD at a lower amp other players can come to the forefront and have more of an influence. I have read many good things lining up for Feb including the lessening MJO, increased AAM and better phases of the GWO , downwelling effects from the SSWE. and this all leads to significant blocking. However, would appreciate your general ideas, they are always very timely and insightful.