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His daily updates have been getting less and less promising. Ironic because this year, and yes it's far from over, Boston was progged to have a very good winter, even better than we were. So far we are doing decent ( DC centric I mean ) while those Boston folks are at all time record lows so far. I feel many were, and still are, hoping for a dramatic flip like 2015. You never know really what will transpire in the months ahead. Boston can score deep into March and beyond as you know. I am still optimistic and feel we have a flip to a much better pattern after this warm up. The models are a mess know and I am not going to go crazy about it. More clarity should arrive in a few days. I did find interesting though yesterday reading through HM feeds, ha ha , he thinks we might be going into a new NAO era.. I can only hope. The 1960's era would be acceptable.

Sounds great, and works for me. Certainly possible by simple odds and the chaos theory the very opposite happens. So maybe we get a great window. By the way, I like how HM uses multiple posts to back up his insights and I never in all my 18 plus years of following him found he is either sensational or hyping potential. Thanks Bob ! I too look forward to a warm period and getting outside next week.

I really hope HM is on to something. If he is correct then what you are saying here will happen, once the models grasp what is going on in the NW Atlantic.

Very true. I have seen a few years ago ( maybe it was longer though ) an off the charts -NAO, and Don S ( who is almost always right ) stated we be in a window of much above normal snow ) Well , the block formed and retro'ed and nothing. So a severe -NAO is not always a win. But, combine a form of NAO blocking with the wave breaking described by HM and the -EPO look with a lot of moisture and we can score going into a period like that , as well as in it too. Still feel later Feb and even early March look good. Looking to see in 5 days where the MJO is and the trends in the SOI to be a bit more confident post Feb 15th.

There is a lot going on near and before day 10.

Far away, but wow to all that moisture. As HM was talking about the -EPO and now the flow from the Urals/Europe effect on the SE Canada vortex escape. There is not a ton of distance on pushing the gradient further South and we are then colder. Interesting to see the EPS later .

This is very true. I recall several times the last 5 years where it was 45 to as high as 60 degrees, and then we got hit by a snowfall of 6 inches or more. Makes sense, that evolution depicts a frontal passage and then a follow up wave or some sort of over-running. This re-set is healthy in the end. Accept this and then prepare to shovel !

That run was loaded with storm oppurtunities , only question is temps. Concur with Bob a lot of precip, and Canada is an icebox. Would not take much to score prior to Feb 15th. Earlier commnets I made were directed after Feb 15th as looking better still.

If we get there I really feel we could go out with a bang. Your right about he process as well, it takes it sweet time. Did you see the SOI went negative.Amazing ! LOL Daily contribution to SOI calculation -3.84

This is just sad for a EL Nino winter. Betweeen this and the MJO 4 and 5 they left a mark that was hard to turn around. Even JB harping on the MJO and the IO convection. I like what I see towards the second half of Feb., but honestly not sure what happens before then is significant. Even though the MJO is progged to head to the COD and then 8 and 1 , I feel uncertain about that happening. I like to see the guideance a week from now still indicating phase 8 and 1, because we have been burned before. My issue is that it takes a while to progress from where we are now MJO-wise to better outcomes.

Thanks ! Do you think if the -NAO comes along in real time and stronger (say mid Feb to the third week ) that the odds are raised for storms being more Philly, DC and Norfolk centered versus what you see on some ensembles today that favor more so New England? Thanks ( I do realize thats a tough question just wondering though )

Bob, is the idea still the trough axis proceeds East in time? ( from the end of the run )

All true, I only found 1/4 of the video valuable. Money is money, right. "that the mjo/soi WILL go where he says. He has no clue" Yep psu, this is really true, because all winter it is doing the opposite of what he said it would do. And in late Dec and parts of Jan it did the opposite in a historical manner.

I hope after the 14 th the West improves. Would be great to get a good Atlantic and Pac to work together. As for the MJO, we hear that the CFS seems to do well in forecasting the progression, so here is to hoping it has the correct handle. Seems to make sense with the progged SOI and other things in the West Pac.

1993 - this will be the 3 rd time he used it so far this winter. ( along with many others )

I was laughing to myself when I watched JB's video today about the MJO and the SSWE . Seems he did an Isotherm moment there.

Decent light snow and 15 degrees. Rate picked up in the last hour.

From DT , This tends to follow what we all think. DO NOT GIVE UP ON THIS WINTER WXRISK.COM·FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 2019 Even though it is likely to reach near 70° next week in much of Virginia and North Carolina -- especially on February 5 I am posting these maps to remind you to not give up on the winter. These maps are from the extended European weekly model which just came out on this Thursday evening. Each one of these images gives you the temperature anomaly on the LEFT and precipitation anomaly on the RIGHT. Obviously the darker the blue color the cold of the temperatures while the Green represents above normal precipitation for that time period. Generally in early and mid February in the Middle Atlantic region IF your SURFACE temperatures are below normal and you are in the Green area you have a GOOD chance to see snow or some sort of frozen precipitation. The other important point is that the long-range European weekly models jet stream maps are showing a prolonged overrunning event. Not a coastal nor'easter super storm but a situation where you have a stalled front over the Deep South and waves of LOW pressure move along the front dropping precipitation into the cold air. Of course the key point here is that the stalled front has to drop as far south as these models are indicating. if the stalled front were to stall say over Tennessee and Virginia then obviously the temperatures would be substantially different and the precipitation type would be substantially different. But right now this is a fairly bullish looking setup for the middle portions of February

It sure seems that way. And, I agree with you. Folks are liking that period near Feb 10th to 12th, but the real show might be more so Feb 20 if you base that off a SOI lag, better Pac and a retro Greenland block. I just want snow, light snow right now. Amazing what will stick at 14 degrees ! Pretty !

They all need a canolli

Ah, that explains your almost 24/7 posting. You are a machine !!! I can get up at 3 AM and still see a recent post you made, then at 6 AM it's showme time. Life is Good !!!

Boy that pesky SOI still positive and still waiting for the real time to match the long range guidance. But, overall still on track, two steps forward , one step back with the modeling. I believe the part where HM spoke about the NAO also included the caveat that the models are not ready yet to show the outcomes he described. Granted you can see it coming, I think he means the evolution and duration as well. Also, it appears MJO phase 8 seems a good bet. That is a huge plus !

HAMMER TIME !!! Here We Go ............................

Thanks to you and Bob for pointing that out.

Damn, glancing at 33andrain and did you see the GEM ensembles I heard from the poster ( if he is correct ) they normally dont go cold crazy like this. Something is seriously UP near this date. Unreal....