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Yeah, sounds good to me !

Hopefully this trends colder in future runs, or not. Folks up North and far West should be happy. I am more interested in the events after the 15th to be honest. Very keen on seeing the EPS for hints.

Wondering if this is skewed or how reliable due to changing MJO forecasts

The Euro will set it straight ;-)

Bringing this over courtesy of 33andrain, bottom line, for the first time, maybe all winter, things are forecasted to work together, versus against. This post echoes what we were discussing this morning and complements it, and touches on some things HM mentioned as well. I know some appreciate this kind of detail when it comes to the Pac, MJO, blocking and other factors. I am becoming less bitter today :-) <<<<< Posted 29 minutes ago Below is a signal i've truly yet to see all winter long; a stable constructive interference, intra-seasonal signal with what also looks like a dual-low frequency mode along and east of 180 degrees. This is the stability that many have been anticipating and expecting, but has yet to develop until about now. There is indeed an impressive Eq. Rossby wave that has allowed for some slowing and even causing chaos in those RMM phase diagrams (which be careful to use as they don't always tell the whole story). It's these depiction however, that kicks off with what looks to be our best conducive stretch of wintry prospects early-mid Feb into about late month. Sometimes, you just have to step back, and look at it from a wide view. Notice where the robust center of convection is and a coherent signal as well with some convection hanging back towards the MC. It's no coincidence that the EPS and GEFS are at odds with each other starting valid next week. It's here below, at this time stamp, that begins the divergence and this is attributed to the parameterization of there tropical forcing forecasts and initialization. I'm inclined to believe, based on what i've attached and been watching daily, that the EPS is correct in this poleward ridge into Alaska with a positive tilt, therefore, inducing lower heights downstream faster than its counterpart - the GEFS. Some similarities, but the difference is poleward amplification and it's stymied by its MJO progression. I'd expect a correction towards the EPS in time, but nonetheless, I do like the upcoming gradient pattern. Thereafter, it's interesting given +AAM in the tropics and a soon-to-be big +EAMT rebound and pacific waveguide shuffling that'll allow - bearing more curveballs, a +PNA depiction post ~ 20th with a potent window of actual Greenland blocking. i'm definitely intrigued by the cyclonic wave breaking that'll be occurring all the while this period happens and if we can get that retrograding signal to commence (0z/6z GEFS showed it as Geoff displayed). Despite the emotional rollercoaster, you have to just prevail against the "noise". Split flow, retrogression, and added westerly inertia.... not an easy thing for guidance. We'll see where it goes, but its hard not to like the period starting next week. >>>>>>>

@psuhoffman watch the JB video it has value . LOL I say that about 3 times per year. 80 % value 20 % hype , overall I like the update. Shows the phase 8 in Feb with a high amp. To me those higher orbits look like they have more high impact snowfall potential , where phase 8 closer to a low orbit have very cold but maybe not as stormy ? Make your own assumptions after looking at a few samples i the video. and yes the data set is a few, but overall the message has value. Cold coming. snow yeah, thats coming too as long as we get the looks the models show for the MJO and the decline in the SOI due to the complete reversal of pressure patterns in the far Westerm Pac. And wow, I forgot that in the SOI dive of Jan 2009 it went to minus 50's to -74 . Thats nuts !

The CFSv2 does well with the MJO forecasts in genera , so this should inspire some confidence. @psuhoffman what would be very valuable is to see what the NAO has done in Feb months in which the MJO reaches phases 8 and 1 in a high orbit .

Well HM said ( see below the Bolded part ) Beyond this only he can provide more into his thoughts on why. : If more momentum is partitioned into northern stream, that would significantly reduce any NAO chances and likely bring more widespread warmth. Models are of course struggling here.

Thanks

Interesting seems the way you get the effects onto the streams is just as important If more momentum is partitioned into northern stream, that would significantly reduce any NAO chances and likely bring more widespread warmth. Models are of course struggling here.

Wow. Every day, more and more negative

If JB is correct with the dive in the SOI, and I think he is to a certain degree, then as @showmethesnow stated the Pac could carry the show. BUT, you have to wonder if or when, we see a several day period where the models bring back a -NAO, simply due to the fact we are getting a favorable MJO phase 8. And this time the progression through the good phases is slow, versus the last time wherewe hit phase 8 and then bang, wemoved to phase 5 quickly. If there was ever a time or a reason to get the good look it would be soon. @donsutherland1 stated this morning the dismal performance of the Weeklies ( week 3 focused ) may have to do with the lack of coupling with the Nino. I would think with improvements in the Pac, the models can be taken a little more seriously this go around.

I think the - 5 is in trouble

I went through yourt posts psu, can you tell me is the SOI still forecasted in a few days to dive into the negatives like it was 4 days ago. If memory serves me correct that process should start soon. Thanks

I see a big cane season a coming

Wonder what HM will say now. This was an interesting reply to Anthony Replying to @antmasiello Hoping for change as it has been a grim let down winter so far, but confidence low. Atlantic sector has refused to create anything other than a mid Atlantic block and while composites may suggest otherwise in reality it has been + NAO throughout. And this is with good signals!

@psuhoffman Is that a progged - 4 SD - EPO in the long range ? Wonder too if we morph into a -NAO late Feb. ?

Of course, just attempting to bring both pros and cons into view. I still feel optimistic, but like all of us frustrated a bit. Always good to dwell into new insights. But, phase 8 and 1 sound great to me. That SOI should tank soon as well.

Jason admits further in that thread it is contrary to what you would normally look for. As for Nino, I have only heard that the Nino is dead, or weak, or absent - As for the SSWE no one really knows right. Every pro I have read to try to learn more has been proven incorrect and that goes universally for everyone we respect and use as support and guideance here , that means Earthlight, Isotherm , HM, DT, Allen Huffman , Don S. , Benchmark. Whatever the deal everyone so far at least has not done well. Ray got December OK, And some got the progression correct, CWG and a good temo forecast for Jan but Feb looks like it will be a huge challenge for them and everyone. What should have gone into a great and long duration pattern has fizzled and never materialized in real time. Regardless the DC outcomes for Jan. As for the SSWE I hate them. But whether it was that, or the Nino failure or the damn volacanoes erupting I have no idea . All I know was I told my son a while ago prepare for a lot of snow days and so far just one late openning. Its great there were some cold days and it snowed at 12 degrees but the promise that was foretold so far has not happened.

Even Amy Butler is frustrated. Time to re-think long range guideance and forecasts. Yeah, sorry, I am bitter.

I really am at witts end here. When the MJO arrives at phase 8 and 1 the long standing composites show Greenland blocking and a trough in the East. But, here we see something totally different. And to make matters worse the Poles are getting less blocky and we are losing the -AO rapidly . Plus, negative changes over Siberia as well.

If you told me the AO might go to plus 2 to 3 I would never had believed it a few weeks ago. Granted it may not verify, buts that it ugly ! Still speculation of course about the MJO and the SOI, but wondering whether we get a nasty early March period.

@showmethesnow What are your thoughts about this unusual outlook, seems opposite all others February Discussion: I did not update my map at all and have chosen to let this outlook ride. This despite most of the calls that I have seen to go colder. Most of the model data is considerably more widespread colder than I am. So, why do I not agree? There are a couple of reasons. One, for all of the cold talk in January and we did have a couple of sizable outbreaks monthly anomalies may surprise you. Chicago was 3 below normal, Minneapolis only 1 below. Most of the east coast was near normal and the south and west were widespread above normal. Really the month as a whole was not that cold! The second reason is the El Nino. It has not disappeared, more has taken a break. There are signs of it returning. If it does, we may still have this strong polar vortex, but likely will be displaced farther north. My earlier outlook accounted for this strength by going a little below normal in the same areas (Plains and Lakes) that have seen the bulk of the cold so far. The cold outbreaks have been short duration and the moderation has been impressive at the coldest time of the year. I don't see why that would not continue in this pattern given the longer days and higher sun angles. It's not as if I am going blow torch warm. My anomalies are only a degree or two from normal a little higher along the west coast where warmth has been a constant. New York +2.0 Philadelphia +2.0 Pittsburgh +2.0 Cleveland +1.0 Chicago -1.0 Des Moines -1.0 Dallas +2.0 Denver +2.0 Tucson +3.0 Las Vegas +3.0 Seattle +3.0 Sacramento +3.0

Tom, that is very interesting about the NAO. Will you publish or release your research at some future date ? I am hopeful about the MJO, seems we might be in line for your window of potential cold/snow, after the warm up and speculating we advance more so into a conducive pattern for snowfall. And, in areas that so far have been lacking. Lastly, can you comment about the effect possibly in March , if any effect at all, regarding the volcanic eruptions in several VEI 3 volcanoes during the last 3 to 5 months I believe you follow this research. Do they have a role in the outcome of the strat this spring and even later in the year. I heard they have the potential to even change the NA pattern and have in the past causing changes to the SPV. Also the very periods in the past known as the years without a summer. Granted, we have not had an eruption(s) capable of that outcome yet. Thanks

showme I know you saw this, but what was encouraging to me was the run over run improvements/trends on the continued decline in the -EPO. That bodes well for us. And your focus to on the 50/50 was also targeted yesterday by HM. We may end up with a better Pac then we think later in the month and a good Atlantic as well. Speculation I have is maybe we also get the MJO to slow in phase 8 through 2 , and yes that assumes I am thinking we do get there.