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Does the CFS have the dip? If not, maybe the Euro will adjust. Look at the last four days how the Euro has shifted.

I recall like it was yesterday Paul Kocin the day prior on the Weather Channel reviewing the energy set to dive in and it was up near Northern Canada, I new much less then, my God 18 years ago, where has time gone? Anyways, it dawned on me at that time all that was needed to get this huge storm going, after that mid day update from Paul things started to fall apart.

If I may just mention this , that event I still cry over. Was forecasted to get 18 to 22 inches of snow in Northern Delaware, and only got 1/2 inch. Worse busted forecast ever !!!!!!! Complex diving energy from Northern Canada and in the end only far New England got it I believe. GFS 12 days prior forecasted a 952 mb low over the benchmark , DT war WOOFING loudly. He called that the forecast that went badly the Pamela Anderson Bust John Bolaris was on Philly channel 10 and was gung ho on the event , all the outlets were, but he was tormented by angry folks stating his forecast was the worse ever. He left the station after that I think.

And, the beat for the -NAO grows louder. New conversation Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher 2h2 hours ago Replying to @antmasiello If we get another monster -NAO in March I will hold you personally responsible Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello 2h2 hours ago More last year seemed very clear to me. this year I don't really have a clue if this period of interest produces anything substantial enough to even affect March. I like that the CWB thing materialized after the Ural's block. So far, so good.

If the FV3 were a street drug it be laced bad sh*t ! IV s are optional but very expensive for the weenie punks out there

And , you know this, but the more the MJO goes into a higher orbit the faster the pattern transition and such. I would think then that the good phases you want a very high orbit and the warmer phases you want a lower orbit. If you think otherwise please let me know. Lastly, you can see today the slowing and road blocks being created that HM spoke about regarding NAO taking place. in the EPS more and more.

Thanks ! psu you think that the EPS might trend even better ( 360 hours is Feb 21 st ) beyond this look here. It looks like it is moving towards the phase 8 MJO composite but is lacking I feel with the ridging out West. Then again that steroid Pac jet has been there all winter , the fast flow, etc., maybe all the changes taking place slow it, and it changes.

Is the EPS out yet ? Thx

Hmm, following the lead of the CFS maybe. EPS will be telling. Regardless, expect big time improvements to show themselves very soon.

Thats great to hear. Getting them on the correct path is key. Let them take responsibility too, my son at 14 picked corn at 530 AM at a local farm market during the summer and made decent money. He used it at the time to buy computer parts and assembled his own gaming computer. Picking corn is rather stinky and wet when you do it for 6 hours in a row. He did enjoy driving the gator.

Watch the Euro start to change personalities soon. Interesting opening acts so far.

Maybe low blood sugar. I felt better this morning after I had some coffee cake, love cinnamon ! opps back to the weather ......

The GFS is simply lost. I would not worry too much at this time with the goofy GFS. Yes, its possible it goes down like this, but I doubt it. Also, I concur with psu this may never really be our event anyway. Even if we were in the sweet spot getting all snow 24 hours before the event starts it could still go poof like back in 1994. I like the time period after the 15th better. But, with all things weather, you never know.

Lastly, as HM stated about 1994 andf the -EPO I myself could infer for a colder and snowier scenario we may need to wait until after Feb 14 th, As the pattern continues to improve and maybe we even get a -NAO.

You know the GEFS's crazy amp in phase 8 has support from the CFS, which has been leading so far in the progress of the current MJO. Even today the Euro moved towards the GEFS and the CFS You could speculate, that if the CFS has the right idea of the MJO, it would yield a more accurate forecast at long leads.

He has had issues like everyone. His in-house model did badly, and that blue thunder or whatever you call it, was a dud.

Seems like all hell is going to break loose soon in the PAC. MJO signals only getting stronger and the dive psu mentions is on the doorsteps. Really beginning to wonder if all this good talk from the Pac happens, we will, by association, get some form of -NAO . East based, West based, retro to the Davis Straights ? Alot of things are lining up to come together in the next 3 to 7 days. The higher orbit MJO phase 8 seems likely. Short-term coupling seems a good bet too. I look for a diving AO soon after the ramp up, and a big drop in the SOI. It also appears the -EPO is going to really be legit. Some of the analogs had a major snowstorm near the end of Feb., or early March. Speculation, but just throwing it out there.

This might be the best look form the gfs in a while. yes, it at 384 hours, but not bad at least it shows potential in a uniform manner and makes sense based on where we are headed, hopefully. Maybe for us the best happens after Feb 14 th.

Wow the weather this winter has been whacky But, seems to go back down to a degree.

That does look good. With the typical lag effect later Feb could be looking good. Would be awesome to be at Feb 10th to 15th and have big time negative SOI values and see on the medium range real threats and a - NAO. That would add confidence. Also allows for a period where the ocean and atmosphere couple.

Maybe one of the mets here knows, but also wondering the effects of the Gov. shutdown. I am sure the model has value, but the amount of snow it forecasts versus reality is just a bit off.

Whats your gut telling you about the -NAO modeled in the GEFS? You think it is there later in the run due to the expected MJO phase? and, I mean late as in past 300 hours. Would indeed be nice to get that after 3 false attempts so far this winter season. Checked the SOI this AM., still positive but I think the decline is not for another 3 days.

Hard to believe it is the upgrade. 80 % of all modeled snow for our region you see on it never has happened.

@psuhoffman think you were waiting for this

You are in a great spot psu ! My location seems to suffer from the warmer ocean as you can see by the strange reduced totals the come in off of the East. For example, look at Dover, DE. what a big difference there. I myself would require a more Northerly component to do better. But , it will be somewhat fun to see how this plays out.