frd

Over your years of looking at the models in winters with the NS and set ups close to this, is it true the GFS does better than the Euro or is that a myth?

@showmethesnow is the storm next week part of the process that yields the AM GFS MECS ? Do you buy it on potential only or not ?

Well, that is true. Just curious, so I had to ask.

No real faith in the UkMet ?

This morning's GEFS looks better for us near Greenland. . Speaking of the GEFS :

Seems the overall BEST potentail rides the period Feb 20th to March 6th . Little if any faith beyond early March. At that point I am thinking about Spring things, unless we get a repeat of last year, However, scanning things , it seems that outcome is remote. Unless we get the MOTHER of all Greenland blocks. ( wonder the association last year with that block and the role of the QBO) That Greenland block last March was a thing of beauty building on the heels of Feb warmth.

Seems we are looking at the best potential of this crappy winter coming up from mid month to early March and then things change. Going to bring over an interesting update. Seems this winter things are just having a hard time lining up. CAPE mentioned this earlier, about the location and orientaton of some key features for us here on the East Coast. I also recalled something the other day about a weak Nino and a early season SSWE versus later in the season and how those winters were duds. Also Isotherm's intial posts about the progression of the QBO and its phase. It appears as webbweather noted this back in late November that the phase of the QBO was one in which these early season SSWE occur. But, overall I think this winter did not have an ideal QBO for us. ( in terms of direction and + or - )

On the lighter side:

In regards to the Pac from a very good poster at 33andrain , he knows his stuff. Called for this warm period three weeks ago and right on target, when others stated no way, it is going to be cold. << In other news.... Jet retraction peaks on the 11th. We are going a bit back and forth. Also good news is a tint towards the equator in terms of the STJ. That last week of the month looks pretty good for snowfall chances. The MJO is certainly a big player in that >>>>

Ah.......to enhance your "channeling" experience may I suggest a lovely incense candle. Seriously though lets see what happens next. But, I can dig 1958.

last one thats enough I guess

next

next

fyi weeklies if you care courtesy 33andrain

Thanks, a million showme !!

showme, are the more robost solutions ones in which individual EPS members may be keying on a coastal, or is it simply more strongly WAA related, or can't you tell. Thanks

The JMA anyone ? This fits the cold and snowy late Feb and early March period. Funny, I look at this and its like dejavu .

I really do hope we get a -NAO amongst other things. And, show that ground hog a thing or two.

The trends the last 48 have been impressive, but based on the events ongoing in the North Atlantic and the Pac, I could speculate that we may not have even seen the weeniest run yet.

Been noticing the trend for higher mb High pressure centers moving West to East, I like !!!

I know people laugh at what I am going to say here next, but take my word on this that both HM and Isotherm use eruptions of volcanoes greater than VEI 3 in determining the NA pattern, as they effect blocking and the HL. I think we are going to see some effects of all the recent activity manifest itself somehow. Would love a HM post just on this element. He mentioned it not long ago comparing winters, I know he has brought this up several times in the past 2 or 3 months.

Good points. Yeah, not sure the point here. He has posted 6 weeks this could be a two year event and then this post. I mean this is a pathetic Nino so far.

It been unrelenting this winter, simply incredible. We MUST get that MJO to move it phase 8 and then 1 without any issues this time. If you believe the modeling this is the best combination of factors so far to achieve that needed result with the MJO.

@psuhoffman can you commnet on this ? Good or bad? I would think good , but I have a head cold and cant think this morning. I hope you are having a better day then me. This is 33andrain and webbweather The GFS might be a bit overdone but I think we could see a gigantic WWB near the dateline next week as an Equatorial Rossby Wave interferes w/ the lowpass ENSO signal. We're at that time of the year where ENSO is most receptive to high frequency noise like this, granted you can clearly see this isn't just fleeting noise anymore w/ the 3rd legitimate 150E-180E WWB in the past month.