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Priceless . Besides there is a significant difference versus the entire second half of Feb and the end of Feb. Our window is after 2/20. The ace card will be when we see the EPS go up for three days in a row and NOT reverse. ( or HM annouces a winter threat date, LOL, whatever one is fine with me )

He is going to jump out a high window, can't blame him

Agree, and like poolz mentioned above, thats a real good thing. Shows some blocking and slowing and colder outcomes as well. I like that look. HM mentioned this with his series on wave breaking and the NAO, the slowing traffic and I imagine beginnings of a convoluted North Atlantic maybe, also help no doubt to a degree from a improving Pac. With the lag effect from hopfully better phases og the MJO. Like to see phase 8 and love to see progression to 1. Please no back tracks to 7 or diminshing orbits. If all goes well, maybe money time . With the winter we have had so for I want that money with Mafia interest too ! ( no offense to my Italiano clan in South Philly........ YO )

First time in forever seeing areas South of us in the game, that might be a good signal there, IMHO.

Did Wes use to say when the mean is 6 inches that is when you can start believing until not worthwhile

Question - is that a 50 50 or a displaced Baffins block or neither ? ( on the GEFS at 192 )

So this is good for 384 hours ? I will say this for MBY Northern freak'in Delaware has got a little more color. LOL And the possible good news is this is prior to the so called mystical great pattern window, j/k I feel we score

@psuhoffman ponder this one and ponder this as well, I never heard of this before Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago More The southern hemisphere has been skewed towards what we call "La Nina" with regards to tropical forcing. This is why SOI has been running net positive Jeremy Reiner‏Verified account @jreineron7 3h3 hours ago Does this happen a lot?..ive always thought ENSO acts accordingly (when in either warm/cold phase...an el nino or la nina global signature..north america in particular) Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago More I think it happens more so in "ENSO neutral years" tho there isn't much research on LF tropical forcing states in ENSO neutral years as diagnosed by the ENSO34

Even HM seems only average this year, which says a lot. But, normally he is exceptional on pattern signals. To make matters worse one met will say the SSTs around Greenland have improved for a -NAO while other mets say the opposite. Then another camp argue the fact that SST at the higher lattitudes do not drive a -NAO. I can see the Northeast PAc warm blob having a huge effect but maybe the NAO is in an area regardless of SSTs it not enough to drive it negative. Or, maybe it is the AMO. Seems the last several winters minus last March had the mostly positive NAO phase, despite several different SST profiles in the Atlantic, warm, super warm, nuetral, tripole , etc. Nothing has taken place to drive a -NAO like back in the decadal period such as the 1960s.

By the way not sure if you heard this , or even if this is a real observed effect. But reading around, I read that even once you enter a better MJO phase , there is a 5 to 7 day lag for the effects to manifest themselves into the pattern. I assumed that meant to colder and stormier for the East Coast .

Thanks !

@WxUSAF do you still feel if the -NAO materializes we do indeed still have an oppurtunity to get "some" snow near the very last part of Feb. (maybe early March ) I am burnt out by this winter. Thanks !! Always appreciate your insights !

Like bluewave said in December the Pac jet is a killer. We will never get out of this pattern if this continues and there are no real signs you can believe.

If the long range was exciting I would never post this , but because we still have a ways to go here you are : psu got me thinking of martial arts with his emoji David Caradine I believe as the character ages The show was called Kung Fu

When you can grab the pebble from my hand you will have learned grasshopper ........ Hey.... I am dating myself right. I bet you know where that line is from

Ha ha ha , that was my line of thinking too .I see you ninajed my mind

The pattern changing HM super Blizzard. After that the HECS

An event similiar to the Ash Wednesday storm would in today's dollars would be mind boggling

It's pretty amazing how the models flip and flop every 6 hours. Barely any consistency ever. Nightly model runs always change by the AM. The AM changes at 12z. I mean in the old days, like last year, LOL we would get 4 to 7 days of crap runs at a times then switch to 5 or more days showing a great pattern. It has been a long time since I have seen the models with such an eratic behavior. Also of note, besides JB. , most long range forecasters have remained rather quiet. I am already thinking about the consequences for the summer if we never really get cold again in terms of Atlantic SSTs.

Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures.

Zac is good at the Pac, I haved found, so I brought this over - you were talking about the Pac/MJO, etc. He just did an update below : Posted 4 hours ago From about now until the 16/17 Feb, we should see a +EAMT produced pattern. The jet starts extended according to the graphic I posted earlier on the 12th. We are currently in a -EAMT, so the extension impacts start within days of the start of the +EAMT period. The PNA impacts should start to be felt from the 18th or so, and continue for a 10 day period. This should push the Aleutian ridge more into the -EPO domain, more so than the NWP forecast IMO. 2. EPS shows a big fat low developing around the 16th, descending over the Mongolian ranges and into the Himalayas, fully disturbing the +EAMT by the 18th. This will weaken the push of the ridge into the -EPO domain, but I still think it should be further West than it is in this chart. The messy low situation on the West Coast is probably going to be maintained, so we need that low off Labrador to move further southwest in longer term runs. That would further allow the gradient curated -NAO (via the MSLP level Low over Siberia). This is indicating that the processes that curate the cold stable Siberian High are starting to break down or otherwise known as the beginning of the end for winter. However I do believe there is still plenty of room for more ridging in Siberia, it is just winter is starting to lose it's feet. Don't dismiss winter for North America yet though, as the breakdown of this winter stability can curate some unstable patterns that generate big winter storms. 3. Overall I think the Western US will do well over the next 10 days, but so will the Eastern US will still see the conveyor belt of storms behind it, on the 12th, 16th and 20th pretty roughly. The last week of February is the "peak" of this particular period, but I see no reason to discount potential for winter storms in the first two weeks of March. But after then, I think we are pretty much out (no random 12" early April storms, as one would expect). The next three weeks from now are what we are looking for. I think it is a pretty good indicator to see plenty of options, into the reality that tropical forcing in particular is driving a lot of this pattern. The extratropics will cooperate until the end of the month, and we could see a -AO/-NAO develop by then, but it really is on the back of the MJO and the WWB, that @Isotherm was talking about for quite a while, and @Webberweather mentioned in the Tele Thread, was getting very strong in the West-Central Pacific in the 150E-180 region, on the back of a ER wave, with the MJO and general Niño like state interact with it in the background. FT is currently increasing, which is an indicating of poleward propagation of +FT anomalies, but I wouldn't be surprised with a bit more of a jump, although I would prefer the WWB a bit further to the West for maximum +FT effect. These are improving signals, but it isn't like there isn't already an abundance of westerly momentum in the atmosphere anyway. I'll leave all to ponder, on that note. - Zac

@psuhoffman Good post psu. I agree. I had seen mentioned elsewhere too, that the structure of the Nino was improving recently. Granted there is a lag but anything better is good , right. Your post brought something up very interesting regarding ocean and atmospheric coupling, or the lack there of. I recall back in late December bluewave made a post, and in it he mentioned that the December that passed was the first one ever possibly where the SOI was at such a positive reading. (hmm, warning signs ) Now mind you, this was before the real impact from the SSWE. So the role of that on the SOI is not there. Why was the SOI for Dec so high, versus what you expect in a El Nino ? Thinking maybe part of the issue with coupling is that if you do not get it in December maybe it is harder to get Jan and Feb??? ( a lack of coupling is a sign of serious issues maybe for later in the Nino season , maybe ?) And a step further, what are the implication of the very, very warm waters East of Aussie ? But very cool waters West of Aussie? JB many a times brought up the great look concerning the goodl ooks of the SSTs West of Aussie and in the East Indian Ocean. Did the warmers waters East of Aussie have a role on the unexpected MJO phases and the hadley cell this year?

Well just when I was starting to get excited for concensus for a deep dive in the AO. It really it not worth the time any longer to track these setbacks and miscues. Seems the model backed off . Was general concensus for a - 2 SD yesterday for the AO or more, but today I see a spray of solutions . Not really as impressive and some stay positive.

Thanks, it is hard to compete with the computer resources and layers of the Euro.

I have witnessed numerous times over the past 10 years the GFS have a storm and having the same outcome 3 days in a row only to collapse to the Euro closder to the event. The fv3, I have no idea what is wrong with it. Some people get rather upset when you say the Euro is really good, because it too has ups and downs and since the last couple upgrades it appears to have lost its edge in some types of weather patterns. It also too has bias as well. So bottom line, if you want security in a forecast you need to have the Euro in your corner. Maybe as we progress to the better pattern with blocking in place that should provide forecasts that are more credible and somewhat easier for the model to resolve. That starts later next week and hopefully continues until early March.