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1993 being talked about by some mets as a upcoming analog . And no, not JB. I dont follow JB anymore .

Well, the stronger Nino events are less wishy washy and are easier to forecast in the long range . Weaker events are more prone to less accurate forecasts due to the Nino event possibly weakening in the heart of winter. ( even though some will tell you there is a lag effect and a weakening may not mean much. I disagree with that line of thinking ) When you ask most here in the forum the type/strength of Nino is key to the likelyhood of above normal winter snowfall. Weaker Nino events are not that great. Stronger Ninos raise the bar and can yield bigger exceptional snowfall events. Moderate Nino seem to be the best indicator of the potential for above normal climo snowfall in the Mid Atlantic , or to be even more specific maybe moderate to strong and West Based. I believe Matt and Ian once stated you roll the dice with a Strong Nino, but that can support MECS and even HECS . You could get 75 % of more of a season's snowfall from that type of event. Example the 30 inch snowfall in the winter of 2016 in a otherwise pathetic snowfall season in this area.

You have some interesting options on the table.... Do we have a positive PDO. Does it last into the winter .... What are the consequences of the dramatic sea ice melting and recent summer of warm season blocking ..... do we get the winter -NAO Does the Nino persists ( granted some have stated it is gone already others argue the fact ) and where do we get the tropical forcing this winter ..... Does NH blocking flourish in the winter with a back drop of neurtral Pac SSTs What will be the effect of the continued qiuet sun and the continuation of the solar decline as we eventually hit the bottom of the solar minimum..... Some feel based on the Pac SST and SSTs in the NH in general indicate a 1993 Brr...... winter. What about moisture then, without a Nino would it be dry? Or do we go to a stormy winter with frequent snows based on an active storm tracks and coastals ? A lot to consider as we look towards the winter. Bottom line be very careful and never trust the seasonals. Even analogs may not be as effective as we are in a changing climate here, and what worked as a analog in the 1960s probaly would not work today.

Even recently, I think last month, we once again set a new record for the Pac jet. Not sure when it will calm down.

Besides the atmosphere and ocean coupling, the other issue was the basin wide warm SSTs in the Pac. Seemed to cause a less well defined area of tropical forcing. Also as you mentioned, the record MJO amplitude in phases that no one forecasted. WeatherBell stated would be in the cold and snowy phases, sorry WeatherBell you get a F minus Pioneer model you get a D minus I hope no one forecasts a cold and snowy winter here based on the "warm blob " . As for the PDO and the warm blob, that can change on a dime.

Hmm, well the Pac state was interesting that Fall and Winter , and certainly the QBO was not an issue when the winter produced some noteworthy snowfalls. I recall several surprise snowfalls as well along the coastal plain. ( near the beaches of Ocean City, MD. and Fenwick , DE for example. It just wanted to snow that winter. Whether the Pacific base state combined with the low solar background and worked in tandem, not sure. Now as to the 1995 hurrican season and using that as a analog way too early to say, as 1995 was an active year.base chage with the NAo You have to ponder whether we are entering a base state change regarding the NAO, if so, it could be interesting if it persists into the winter. 1995 Atlantic hurricane season - Wikipedia The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, and activity in 1995 began on the next day with the formation of Hurricane Allison on June 2. It was a well-above average season in which 21 tropical depressions formed, 19 of which attained tropical storm status, and 11 of these attained hurricanestatus. A quick look at the winter of 1995-96 Winter 1995/96 The 1995/96 winter (DJF) season featured abnormally cold and snowy conditions in the northern plains, the eastern half of the Midwest, the Northeast, the mid-Atlantic states, and much of Canada. For the season as whole, temperatures averaged 3°-5oC below normal across western and central Canada, and 1°-2oC below normal across the northern tier of the United States and throughout the eastern seaboard from Florida to New England (see section 5, Fig. 59a ). In the East, these conditions contrasted with the abnormally warm temperatures and low snowfall totals (less than 25% of normal) observed during the 1994/95 winter. One prominent aspect of the 1995/96 winter season was a recurring pattern of enhanced northwesterly flow, which extended from northern Alaska and the Bering Sea to southeastern Canada and the north-central United States. This flow brought a series of major winter storms and severe winter outbreaks to the northern and eastern United States, resulting in record-breaking cold and snowfall totals in many regions. The season also featured considerable variability over large portions of the United States and Canada, with periods of extreme cold and snow followed by brief periods of warmth and rain.

I read from a decent science based site that the min can occur anywhere from July 2019 to March 2020. Not sure the QBO will be in the same phase as late 09 and 10. I think that period was East and this year may be West? A lot to consider, not just one element, but still very fascinating to see what happens as we enter the Fall.

Euro seasonals are trash but OK ........ still waiting on cold and snow....... sorry Maue I disagree on any value from these forecasts

I will look into it @showmethesnowand let you know if I find a good answer.

As you know, we can live here with a good Pac and a not so good Atlantic. The very best Pac patterns can really produce for us here and be cold as well. The pattern over the NW North America and the PAc seems to have increaed the SSTs in the PDO region. We allknow better then to assume that will last. Even a stout + PDO in Novermber can be reversed quickly with the right weather pattern over the NE Pac.

This last day of July initial release may be totally fine, but recently the CanSIPS has been having some issues as alluded to by Ventrice

Never heard of it - so I had to look it up....... fascinating read here volitile oils reacting with sunlight. Feel better . https://web.extension.illinois.edu/cfiv/homeowners/090611.html

From Don S. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

This record would be cool in the winter months. Maybe yes, maybe no, but 83 days, wow ! Seems the cold pool was responsible for the long cycle of the -NAO.

Is the typcial cycle 12 to 15 months ? If so, no guarantee of a change. Also, we have had favorable QBO phases in the past, and it has not helped that much with blocking overall. Seems to be more at play here. So many factors to consider, and the importance of each in regards to it'd weighting and sensible weather outcome. I rather have a +PDO, favorable PAC , etc.

Posted only for entertainment value. Anything can happen, and I sure do not trust the Euro. Actually, I do not and will not trust any type of winter forecast this year, even those that will come out in December because today we are in a new regime in my opinion, and analogs can not really be used effectively . Also, IMHO things are so dynamic even the best seasoanl models will not be able to generate a seasonal forecast any better than just going with simple climo. Could be super warm winter or a very cold and snowy winter. Only after the fact will we know.

This seems correct based on the present decade and ongoing persistence. Want snow ? - you have to wait till March . However, maybe this October we get another Hazel.

I might look into that as well, thanks.

Thanks, that is a great point ! I read crab grass sends out some sort of phenol that makes the grass around it not grow as much, but so far crab grass is under control here, with the pre-emergent I but down. Seems my biggest issue this year with the lawn will once again be lawn fungus because of this dew point at night deal. Will reseed in the Fall. but all in all I am happy so far to still have green grass on July 6 th.

Many cucumbers this morning in the garden, wow, I guess the rain maybe, birds after tomatoes though, so I purchased a bird netting because the ribbons and aluminum squares flying in the breeze is not really working at keeping all the various birds away. Its always something ! Yum, your sald sounds great ! My wifes fav are the cherry tomatoes !!! She told me if the birds eat them I am in the dog house . LOL ( more like sweat house ) !

Some folks scalp the grass when they cut it , and wonder why it browns and causes stress on the lawn. I always cut on the highest settings.

Same here, eggplants finally getting bigger with a few flowers. All in all, so far, so good.

OMG, got nailed again with even larger hail more than 1 inch. Incredible. I am tired now all this weather watching , need a beer or two or three

Yet another STW for me. Wonder if that line weakens before it gets here. The most robust part of the line seems to be North of me, with what looks like a bowing out across extreme Northern Delaware. Guessing the highest winds up there. Severe Thunderstorm Warning DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-292045- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0166.190629T1959Z-190629T2045Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... New Castle County in northern Delaware... Northern Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... Western Salem County in southern New Jersey... West central Gloucester County in southern New Jersey... Southwestern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania... South central Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 359 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Kennett Square to Glen Westover to Farmington, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, Elkton, Calvert, Chester, Pennsville, Carneys Point, Elsmere, Kennett Square, New Castle, Penns Grove, Salem, Oxford, North East, Woodstown, Alloway, West Grove, Rising Sun and Quinton.

Well ,that was worth the warning, winds to about 40 maybe 45 , blinding rain in sheets, hail about .75 I think. Over 1.25 inches of rain in less than 35 minutes No tree damage, so thats good but not sure about the garden and the hail , I hope its Ok will look a bit later.