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You know it seems the Ukmet did well with this event . Not perfect but hey snowing really good here, and this area is pegged for the highest accumulations. Ok, not getting 6 to 8 inches but did well. Looking at radar more to come still . As for lmx not sure why. Mount Holly has 1 to 2 during the day today, but little if any accumulations tonight , but they are mentioing sleet.

Not really , I mean we did, but this winter has been really been MJO centric ...... Lots of theories. I agree with Bob that there are other reasons and causes that give us sensible weather, besides the MJO. But there have been a couple very unusual and record events with the MJO this Winter. These events have taken place very oddly with a Nino . For example, one I recall was the highest ever amplitude MJO phase 5 in Jan ever, and also the most time as well in that phase . All my facts my not be 100 % correct but its close. I know bluewave and Don S posted about it. Another bizzare thing was the December SOI., positive for most of the month. So, many players involved but in a way you can zero in on the PAC and something there. I even read something today , maybe it was HM, not sure, but is was about the the Southern Hemisphere and the forcing and a bunch of other stuff. Now, whether is was the MJO that screwed us or other factors that behind the MJO that dictate how it behaves , well that is up to study and conversation after the winter is over. A fascinating winter for sure and frustrating as well.

I agree . Unless it corrects to a higher amplitude in a few days. Because I too am a bit on edge when I see the orbit so close to the COD To get a faster and more meaningful change you need a higher amp or orbit. I guess we see what tomorrow brings. I thought psu stated the CFS had a higher amp

Someone on another site just posted the Euro MJO and it looks good like the CFS. So far the good looks continue. And, it appears the the ECM gets to phase on 1 on Feb 12 th. at an amplitude of slightly more than 1. I think that is ahead of schedule. It then advances to phase 1 . I did see the crazy orbits off the chart are gone. But maybe thats not a real issue as long as we get to move through phase 8 and 1 at even a decent orbit of greater than 1 . There is also no sling shot back to phase 5. Like earlier in the winter. Will be interested to see the EPS overnight for clues to next week.

Yes, Don S was mentioning something similar as the wavelenghts shorten the role of the PNA is not as important in late Feb. Eh, OK. I actualy think we improve the looks out West in time , IF IF IF the MJO proceeds. You know I wonder to the role of the Northwest Atlantic and all this wave breaking as we are getting some help there which fits HM's posting on the NAO.

Like I said yesterday run to run consistency and overall improvements are the keys to watch for. Three days now in a row with an overall better look. And, it is not often you will see those light white greys move South and get close to DC. Impressive. The look too follows HM's animation of the Pac jet as well, and it also follows what wxUSA mentioned that the look in the Pac out in time appeared decent, with just a bit of tweaking.

Busy = and more coffee, maybe even reach for the

Thanks, appreciate it .

@poolz1 is the Hderps good with thermals ? Last year it nailed a March event and nailed the overnight lows which were records when other models were off by 4 degrees

I am still waiting on your mega -NAO call a while ago. No one can predict the NAO at long leads with confidence.

Hmmm

Chuck hacked your account Bob. Is that really you ? LOL But hey, I am with you till the end. I agree that the end of Feb should be decent. I still like an early March strong coastal system. Based partly on analogs and the pattern progression.

It has driven me crazy and bitter too ! But maybe, just maybe if we see run over run, over run improvements we can hopefully think a better window is coming up. For example if today the GEFS continues with a better look and then the EPS does as well and it contimues for say 5 days I think you can then feel much better the period after Feb 20th will improve. Things should move to a -NOA and the trough in the West should start to move East.

So is it the lack of blocking and no confidence in the long range models showing snow? I am concerned ,as I mentioned earlier, by the AO and the NAO. Plus, when things go a certain way for a LONG time, such as Midwest snows and rain on us, even after it is 5 degrees what is to say we get a great window late month. Honestly a pros and cons list would at this time would be equal and in that case you have to weight it in favor of less snow.

Good post , plus I think the airmass next weekend is much warmer too. Not like this AM when many were in the teens .

Ah forgot to mention my only concern is the AO and the NAO. Should not the composite look of MJO phase 8 has I thought a -AO and also a - NAO. The CPC ensembles show a pathetrc look there. Maybe the lag effect and such means you will not see those two indicies improve ( decline ) until we move closer to phase 8. Maybe I am looking at the wrong model for cluse on that front. American model, American issues on the forecasting of the AO and the NAO Wonder what the Euro shows for the AO and NAO, hopefully that is more accurate This was from Don S moments ago The preliminary AO value today is +2.033. That’s not a good development for the extended range until the wave lengths begin to shorten.

Good, at least no set backs.

Thanks. I read ( I know you know this ) that to get a better idea of the true MJO progression use the CFS or the Euro or that guy's tool Kyle Richie you see at times on DT. I know I klilled his name. I think the GEFS is not coupled to the ocean I think for this purpose

How far does the off run Euro go till ? And remember what the met said (33andrain) that his study on verifications of the off hour Euro was not that great. Granted no idea of the depth of the research or the sample size. Sorry if you know this already. I peaked really fast and it does look better but for the DC crew more improvement needed I think. ( that is if you put weight into this run ) maybe a trend to watch .

Do you have this AM.'s new MJO forecasts? Do you still think we proceed to phase 1 from 8 ?

psu explain to me while I wait for my coffee to sink in how that look is possible when the AO and the NAO from the CPC look aweful. My only concerns ( and I like to look at pros and cons too for snow ) the NAO and the AO off the CPC site look worse today than yesterday. Any ideas ?

Can't blame them. I compare it the stock market, buy low , sell high . Those stating no more significant snow might be selling at a poor price. I would not short winter just yet.

Looks nice , lets keep getting looks like this. .

@psuhoffman Don S has really given up it seems. After that, there remains uncertainty. Even as some of the dynamical models show the MJO's pushing into Phase 1, the historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7. Right now, none of the operational guidance shows such an outcome, but the guidance has not fared well in the extended range. 　 The risks of a delayed return to Atlantic blocking have recently increased. During neutral-warm ENSO conditions, the MJO's being in Phase 7 at a high amplitude has often coincided with a positive AO. The latest GEFS guidance has suggested that the AO+, once it develops, could persist beyond mid-month. The ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 weekly anomalies centered around January 30 were +1.0°C and +0.3°C respectively. Three of the past four weeks have seen ENSO Region 3.4 anomalies below +0.50°C. In short, basin-wide, neutral-warm ENSO conditions currently prevail. Such conditions are not conducive for large snowstorms in cities such as New York and Philadelphia. 　 Since 1950, there were just 3 snowstorms of 4" or more in Boston during February when the ENSO 1+2 anomaly was > 0.00°C and the ENSO 3.4 anomaly ranged from 0.00°C to 0.69°C. In New York City, there was just one such storm and in Philadelphia there were two. The biggest snowstorms during such ENSO conditions were as follows: Boston: 9.7"; New York City: 4.3"; and, Philadelphia: 4.7". Those three figures might represent the upper bound of what's possible in terms of accumulations in the current pattern unless there is strong modeling consensus for a larger snowfall.

Yummy ~~~~~ !!!!!!!!!! The heck with the snow, lobster please and a big bowl of butta