frd

Just a quick mention but the first in a week or more that the CPC AO ensembles look a lot better , overall concensus on a drop and a few members with a severe drop in the AO Two members to a - 5 SD drop. Nice to see and matches what the GEPS put out yesterday near Greenland but at hour 324.

I think Don S was saying even as the MJO was progressing it was fading. And yes some MJO tools just forcus on the standing wave. psu's reference about the look with subsidence is spot on, I love the SOI this AM as mentioned

You are on a roll !!!

We will have to see about the MJO per Don S ( not sure the GFS and GEFA are the best tools to use here for the MJO ) However lets keep that SOI diving please. I like MINUS 40 please. The below post is from Don S courtesy 33andrain Posted just now A storm will likely bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain to parts of the region tomorrow. 　 The SOI was -19.02 today. That's the lowest figure since January 4, 2019 when the SOI was -20.30. 　 Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.205. That is the highest value since September 25, 2018 when the AO was +2.265. The preliminary average for meteorological winter is -0.341. 　 For the second consecutive day, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reported no MJO data. However, based on model initialization (which is subject to some degree of error), the MJO was in Phase 7 today and near Phase 8. 　 Assuming the model initialization is accurate, it would likely reach Phase 8 in the next day. This is faster than what had previously been modeled and could result in a lag before the atmosphere responds. 　 Afterward, the outlook remains somewhat uncertain. The historical risks are somewhat weighted in favor of a possible return to Phase 7 from Phase 8 prior to any move to Phase 1. Both the GEFS and bias-corrected GEFS are now showing such an outcome. 　 For now, it remains more likely than not that the MJO will either be in Phase 7 or 8 at mid-month. 　 A fairly stormy pattern is now evolving. A complex system will likely bring a period of snow changing to sleet, freezing rain, then rain across the region later tonight and through tomorrow. Accumulations of 1"-3" in Philadelphia and 2"-4" in such cities as Newark and New York are likely. Well north and west of those areas (including Scranton and Binghamton) and eastward across parts of New England, including the snow-starved Boston area (where just 2.3" snow has been recorded to date), the potential exists for 3"-6". 　 This likely won't be the last snowfall threat for February. With some of the guidance suggesting the development of the strongest westerly wind burst of the winter, the SOI could fall even farther in coming days. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. In short, the subtropical jet could become increasingly active during the second half of February.

I think his student , a grad student maybe, was doing a study but that comment he made, well I am not sure I buy it. So the strat is over whelming the Pac and it's forcing, both ocean based and above. Would like more info and the nature and scope of the study. MJO phase 8 and 1 long standing composites are the Holy Grail of East Coast storms, unless something has changed all of the sudden.

@psuhoffman Wonder what makes him say this?

Tonight is the most important run of the weaklies EVER ! Opps ...... I mean weeklies I am rooting for the psu HECS in early March, lets do this !!!

I hope Ji does not resort to sniffing glue prior to the HECS

Ha ha......thats why I posted the normal EPS too. I di not want to fluster you

EPS

Control ....

I actually liked seeing misses to the South. I recall psu posting and mentioning the spread. Wonder if we progress back to that look in a few days, when and if, the boundary moves back South a bit. Funny, things were progressing, and I hate to say trending to a degree, colder and faster, yet you stated the EPS moved away from the Deep South snow look. That is interesting.

Up next is to see whether the mean snowfall trends on the EPS continue to improve or take a step back. As for the ice on the Euro without question could trend colder and be all snow. But I prefer no ice storm. Perception and damage wise a significant ice storm leaves a nasty memory about the winter being possibly worse than it was. However I can see why because they are dangerous to both person and property. I dont want to spend 1500 right now on my scott pine to take her down.

Wonder if the boundary is going to shift South and track it at a lower lattitude

This is all nicely following the progression of the Pac forcing along with the expected movement in the MJO. Models are seeing it now finally. Would not take much for the 19th to the 21 st to trend colder. For us here in this forum. When you watch the last 25 model runs the trends are impressive and maybe still trending IMHO, Highly speculative of course, but if we get the bigtime -NAO and following the typical progressions you could enter a window where a intense coastal storm could form and effect the Mid Atlantic in early March. We have not had any of those yet. Talking about a BM storm and a colder version than what we normally see in these parts for early March. and here as well ..... ( bottom animation )

Wonder if temps cooperate whether we could get a 10 day window where we get snow on snow . And, I dont care about sun angle and all that. LOL It can happen if it is cold enough and the snow depth thick enough.

And we are not even onto the better window. But at this time it appears the NAO is neutral or starting to decline and the AO is dropping . So the terrible indices we had are improving .

Something on it's tail near Northern Oklahoma. Might get interesting here in later frames.

And, we are in MJO phase 1 at that time, actually well before. Cool to see that.

I will add this about the GFS and this is a bit out there but it really holds true at times. The GFS is good at times in the very long range if you simply desire a window of when there might be a sudden temp reversal or a large storm. I know over the past 6 years it has provided me about 15 days or more notice to storms within just sa few days. I used this info to plan trips and even to surf at the beach based on the looks of a frontal passage and off shore winds. In this role the long range GFS is useless at times.

There must be millions of games under the Coleco platform and black market too. We have come far today. Soon we can live our dreams of blizzards in a animated real life world similiar to the Matrix . ( no need to track anymore ) I can see it now. Mr Anderson , " Neil your PD 5 version 3.0 is ready for your vitural experience in capsule 23. We have increased the wind speeds to 100 mph for your viewing pleasure. " LOL

PD 2.5 Hey , before I forget, be safe tomorrow.

This took some digging Ah, the memories ...................

Sometimes Judah posts a GFS map and says, wow a lot of snow coming, but most times to me it is focused more North of us. Today he posted this and it looks like one of the more impressive in terms of both cold temps, and snowfall potential forecasts this winter.

Fascinating to see the continued excellent trends on the EPS . Not just a better means, but the location and orientation of the mean itself. May not mean a thing but I like it , hope it continues. The mean on the EPS where the heaviest snows are are to fall are also the same areas where the CFS has the coldest temps , day 10 to 15 and to day 20 as well. Looking this morning on the CPCNAO ensembles and there is more hope for a -NAO. Also, the over night GFS made a move to that as well. The EPS is the most aggressive I think. Love the trend down now with the SOI This AM Daily contribution to SOI calculation -19.02 OK this is Newark, NJ but there is a need to watch this period regardless