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@psuhoffman @C.A.P.E. I figure I drop this over here after a brief exchange this AM with bluewave about the WAR and why it has been so constant and not willing to be displaced. His reply was interesting. Seems as we mentioned a few times in the past, the warm waters East of Aussie have a role , as does the High pressure ridge North of Hawaii. I imagine the High is a feature we see there due to the SST configuration from below. I guess you could say this SST configuration and the lack of a December with a significant - SOI and lack of coupling set in motion if you may the repeating and almost reinforced nature of the MJO in the warmer phases and the SSWE sure did not help. ( thats my speculative take ) From an atmospheric point of view, the QBO and nature of the SSWE sure did not present the downwelling that the weeklies forecasted for many runs in a row. But, I digress, here is what bluewave posted this morning about the WAR. here it is Posted 13 hours ago from bluewave The lack of snow this winter is par for the course for such a strong ridge north of Hawaii. This allows the SE Ridge to flex every time a low moves east. from bluewave : My guess is that the ridge north of Hawaii is part fo the pressure pattern we normally see with a +SOI and La Niña. During the fall into winter there were unusually warm SST’s east of Australia and cooler west. That is what we normally see with La Niña/+SOI. So the record +SOI December for an El Niño fit the expected pattern from that SST configuration. The warmer waters west of the Date Line is also associated with stronger MJO activity. The active and strong MJO seemed to enhance the overall Niña look to the pattern.

From Don S a little while ago. Don does go onto to say that the first week in March has some potential for the New Yprk City area and tonights weeklies depict a cold first week of March and then warming thereafter. We are lucky some snow is in our forecast. New York City is missing it form the South and the North. Payback for Boxing Day , J/K Don S <<<< On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.524 (RMM). The amplitude was above the February 16-adjusted figure of 1.283. The MJO could spend an extended duration in Phase 8. 　 The combination of a neutral-warm ENSO and a powerful polar vortex responsible for the strongly positive AO remain the dominant factors driving the pattern evolution. They will likely continue to predominate over the next week. As a result, MJO convection will have little meaningful impact on the larger pattern during that time. 　 The SOI remains at very negative levels. The SOI has a correlation to precipitation in the southern tier of the United States. As a result, precipitation will likely be above to much above normal in both the Southwestern United States (including California) and Southeastern United States. >>>

BWI: 5.1" DCA: 2.3" IAD: 4.5" RIC: 1.1" Tiebreaker: 1.36"

There is an increasing signal here and GEFS has a pretty cold pattern. I don't think moisture wil be an issue. The analogs you mention are not the ones I came up with earlier in the season, most likely because the base state is not as predicted. By the way, that is rather impressive cold there on the GEFS.

Thats great insights , thank you. One more question, maybe I am mistaken, but I thought stronger MJO activity was a good thing? I thought we had central Pac forcing which should have resulted in a Nino look for us here in the East. ( I guess maybe the lack of coupling may prolong the bad issues in the pattern, such as the High pressure the North of Hawiaii. - is that valid speculation ? ) And, are you saying because of the December + SOI values contributed to a lack of of Ocean and atmospheric coupling and that effected the MJO to be in the more typical warmer phases , more so a Nina versus a Nino. Lastly, wonder had the Nino been stronger would that have overwhelmed the SSTs around Aussie ? and given a more typical Nino look as well.

@bluewave that is very interesting. In the Mid Atlantic forum we are trying to figure out the cause for the resilient WAR . Even when we seem to have Atlantic or pac blocking modeled or even in real time that feature does not break down or shift that much to the East or Southeast. bluewave to clarify you are saying the reason for this is the association with strong ridge north of Hawaii ? And, if that is correct what is the driver for that feature North of Hawaii? I myself was wondering about the SSt East of Aussie and the OLR that forms waves, peaks and eddies that go from the SW Pacific to the SW Atlantic , is that the cause ? Someone else thought is was the warm SSTs in the Atlantic but that goes against what you are saying , because the strong ridge north of Hawaii has nothing to do with Atlantic SSTs. Thanks

Bravo goes to JB to for annoucing a statement such as that. I had previously read from a long range pro over at 33andrain that he had many theories about the issues with the winter and how things are not lining up, and he commented that in his list of possible causes was climate warming. He felt the warming was an issue in regards to blocking. He mentioned many valid reasons, no need to rehash here again. This evening I was thinking about what you posted concerning early March today. You and I have mentioned early March for the past month or so, and I know it is a low probability that a historic event takes place, but certainly there are indications something is brewing for the first week of March. One thing I reflect on though is whether the lack of Nor'easters makes the potential less, sort of like the old atmosphere has a memory thing. All winter we have had three main storms and few if any BM storms. Does that mean we can not get a major Atlantic Coastal cyclone, I would guess no, if things evolve like they could. We really need a NAO blip late Feb / early March. And we need those others things you spoke about this afternoon. Anyways, lets see what transpires this week. And hope we get an interesting weather event in early March.

Yeah, not wasting my time to figure it out. He did state this back on Feb 10th and check out this near Aussie from HM's post yesterday.

@psuhoffman Ok, So I read this and then went what ? So Modaki is not good, and is hyped by seasonal forecasters, is that what his message is ? Yet , in reading these boards for 25 years I have only seen good relationships with a Central Based Nino forcing. Not sure I get the message. It has been discusssed by you, CAPE and Bob in detail and for weeks the issues this year. Such as lack of coupling, weak Nino, QBO wrong direction, SH issues near Aussie, gradient poattern, MT issues , the PDO. Anyways just brought this here if you scroll down the actual post there are several commnets worth checking put. Of interest as well is, when you look at what Eric posted, and you look at the OLR wonder if the OLR configuration is reinforcing the WAR ? You can see the alternating almost wave like structure of higher OLR and then lower OLR and you can follow this path to the SW Atlantic Ocean. I know you are continuing to search for reason why WAR is so robust this year.

I wonder IF the large and very intense North Atlantic Ocean BOMB , forecasted down to as low as 935mb, will spawn another -NAO blip, and what the consequences will be, if any? A blip like this one , ie. ( large cyclone breakers in the North Atlantic ) A bit dated but this event is progged this week coming up, so still something to keep an eye on.

Let me kow if you need anhy Fat Bomb recipes. I am involved in nutrition and do marketing on Pinterest as well. My wife is doing Keto, she lost 15 pounds ! Some say it is simply a overall reduction in calories, but honestly you can be in ketosis and still over eat, right. However, I have always felt that folks eat too much processed, high sugar foods and many friends I have would benefit form a higher ratio of healthy fats and protein to carbs.

Not a surprise what the Euro did if you think about this for a second First time since the end of December with a real dive down , I believe it will happen too !

Oh yes, part of the reason(s) we had poor snow outcomes and alluded to by others and HM of course. But, this hits the nail on the head : From HM << Interestingly, the strong Scandinavian High Novembers with a +MEI tended to have this N Pac High and RNA tendency in February when you subtracted out the Scandinavian Low Novembers with a +MEI. Who remembers this? >>>>

Something to chew on, we were lacking this feature.

We might get the oppurtunity to track at the end of the month and early March after this coming up period. . Wonder if what webber weather mentioned about the NAO manifests itself in 10 days, but regardless, HM states some things going in our favor in the Pac. So, maybe we might score in early to mid March.

You know the case could be made that even using older records for Baltimore Snow climo is not even useful anymore in this climate regime. Make of that as you will , but even the most skilled forecasters and long range pros now the same results in 1990, 1994 and even as recent as 2000 need to be tweaked and altered, even reconsidered due to the new climate global drivers. That means the oceans, ocean currents, salinity, global temps, ozone, etc. We are in a new era. Makes things even more so complex.

@psuhoffman thought this was an interesting post by bluewave Wonder if indeed the Super Nino is the cause. I mean the stats are for NYC but it fits here as well from bluewave : <<< It looks like the atmosphere temporarily lost the recipie for making cold winters here after the 15-16 super El Niño.This is the 4th winter in a row with above average temperatures.The 2010’s will work out to 6 above average winters to 4 below. NYC 35.1 current average 2018-2019 36.4 14 2017-2018 36.2 0 2016-2017 39.3 0 2015-2016 41.0 0 2014-2015 31.4 0 2013-2014 32.9 0 2012-2013 36.8 0 2011-2012 40.5 0 2010-2011 32.8 0 2009-2010 33.8 0 >>>>>

Interesting view psu. I tend to follow along those lines of reasoning myself. I guess I should have clarified my dismay and comment about weather modeling was more so focused in the long range. Specifically the long range seasonal models and yes, the Euro weeklies as well , at least inside week 3. And good point too, both humans and machines saw the same things for the winter, and that for me was a HUGE positive. Weather is so unpredictable even in 2019. I am guilty of putting too much faith into the ling range guideance. I am a weenie. I think at times that clouds my judgement.

Thats funny! I wonder how much this hobby effects worker productivity at the work place.

he is a genius along with KA

I just put on Post it up on my wall with your name on it , I will remind in December . ha ha That goes for every damn stink'in model, too ! Ukmet, CFS, JAMSTEC, you name it. F minus to all ! I have to calm down, back to listening to Machine Gun Kelly

Hey psu have you lost faith in weather modeling in general, I have . The models are like decaying cow guts. Rotten and smelly with a stench of failure and a hint of , SUCKERS #$%#&*&(&^!!! I dont want to hear in December about the WEAKLIES I believe it when I can make a snowball ........ Maybe it is climate change ..... No I didn't. LOL

I hear ya........ will be EPIC .... ! ! Yeah like Machine Gun Kelly to MM , Bob going be ominous and on point , look MF er Winter

And, your point is ? So no one should post the thoughts of respected pros and mets. I am frustrated too. I only posted this because it keeps the thread engaged and it could happen. If you going to single out Tom you should include everyone.

How is that even possible , care to explain what he said