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This is a cool animation to watch unfold.

Wow, to the warmth extending North in the Atlantic . A 122 record broken in Aberdeenshire. Not sure the consequence of this or the next two ocean storms next week. I really like to see some sort of -NAO but maybe we do not need it , some mets are saying it would help next week to achieve some sort of -NAO, , others say it is not needed and the other 1/3 camp are sort of mixed.

I hope the runs starting locking down a particular threat by the end of this week.

Exactly, need to get through the spring barrier and see what things look like in late summer.

Well, ........I hate to say this, but Ji's butt hole is going rip wide open. He is going need major reconstructive surgery and a soft diet for three weeks after those monkeys fly outta there.

Wow....... very impressive the turn around , one could guess that we have coupling. Meanwhile the MJO orbit and progression looking very good ! SOI values for 21 Feb, 2019 Average SOI for last 30 days -10.45 Average SOI for last 90 days -0.76 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -27.76

Ji will be happy

Still not sure I buy this. I know Eric mentioned this about 6 weeks ago.

Sorry, I could hardly resist and there is snow in the video, plus I feel sentimental. Kindly remove if unappropriate, maybe Elvis will bring us luck !!!!

Looking at the wave lenghts, and the -EPO set-up ,this might be one time where a significant March snowstorm hits DC and points NE. More potential up North but certainly DC could have a decent event followed by some very cold temps for early March. I feel a miss South is low. Sure could be wrong, but I favor something more DC and Northeast. There is a lot of energy to work with, and the players are on the field for something noteworthy between March 1 st and 8th. Nice to see the models improving as we near the end of Feb., and this matches earlier talks that the first week in March "could" deliver.

Even the NWS products are going pretty cold the first week of March.

Wow at the pressure, wonder if any NAO implications for the end of next week? ( wave breaking or otherwise? ) For that matter even this event next week

I am not ready for spring just yet. Oh the weeds, mowing, gardening, bugs, oppressive dews, etc. And wow, looking at the side of my home today all the mold buildup from I guess the very wet and at times warm winter. Crazy, first time I can recall this happening in the winter months. I am ready for later next week. If I have to suffer through a another summer like last year I demand a March 1960 , shaken not stirred please.

I will be counting on you !

And wow, to the cold potential near early March, the Euro depicts a flow directly from the North Pole. A stormy time period near that gradient.

Snow coming to an abrupt end here. Came down hard the last three hours but the back edge moved in quickly. 2.5 inches and that is decent for it starting at 9:30 AM. Might have to shovel, and clear the cars. 28 degrees. Roads pretty nasty. Brine did little good here.

Moderate snow here, a coating, but picking up. Secondary roads snow covered. Heavier bands to my West.

Snow just started in Middletown, DE., I am a few miles from the C and D canal, close to the MD state line.

Was a great event looking at the records. Huge expanse of snow cover, very cold and bombing out off the coast. March 2 - 4 1960 Snowfall amounts with this late season nor'easter ranged from six inches along the Ohio River to a foot in the mountains. Higher elevation in the central West Virginia Mountains topped 20 inches. This was the third highest average snow producing Nor'easter. It was precluded by surface high pressure over the mid Atlantic on the 2nd, while a second high pressure built into the northern plains. The high pressure over the mid-Atlantic was stubborn and was not initially displaced by a developing low pressure across Mississippi and Alabama area. The high was shoved aside by 00Z on the 3rd when the surface cyclone in the Gulf Coast states headed northeast. With the close proximity between the high and low pressure, a strong pressure gradient developed bringing windy conditions to West Virginia. Coastal cyclogenesis commenced off the Carolina coastline between 00Z and 12Z on the 3rd. The coastal low raced up the eastern seaboard reaching the Jersey shoreline by the evening of the 3rd. The coastal low deepened 45mb in 30hrs from 6Z on the 3rd to 12Z on the 4th. The minimum central pressure fell to 960mb off New England. As the surface low hugged the eastern seaboard, the occluded low traversed up the windward side of the Appalachians. As the surface low passed east of the southern Appalachians, an inverted trough of low pressure developed that focused moderate to heavier snow in the mountains. The 850mb analysis was most interesting. A low initiated in the southern high plains then intensified rapidly across Texas due to a low level jet. By 00Z on the 3rd, the low became cut off in the vicinity of Memphis, TN. Height falls upstream of the low allowed a continued northeast propagation through March 3rd into the 4th. The 850mb moved from southwestern Tennessee to Roanoke, VAin a span of 12 hours, which correlated well with the swift movement of the surface cyclone. Strong cyclonic flow on the backside of the system kept snow going in the West Virginia Mountains. As the 850mb low passed south and east of the West Virginia, 850mb temperatures remained between 0C to -5C, which kept the thermal profile conducive for snow. A negatively tilted 500mb trough strengthened as it ejected out of the Rockies. Meanwhile an upper level jet deepened as the trough propagated eastward across the Gulf Coast states on the 2nd and 3rd. A cut off low developed on the evening of the third over the eastern Great Lakes. The upper low then moved into the Atlantic and intensified further, while yet another low dove into the elongated trough axis that extended from the western Great Lakes to the New England.

CAPE alluded that some EPS members had Miller B s, however, not sure if he meant this time frame or early March. For MBY that track needs to be a bit more East a bit. Favor a further South track too and then a turn up. Looks like late Feb and early March will be interesting. Boston back in the game soon. This is at the beginning of the better window, cough cough. I think it is too early yet to be confident about this period, late Feb. But, nice seeing the Euro support the GFS, GEFS and the MJO progression.

Thats would be awesome, it's my birthday ! Get the MJO to move along like in the plot you posted, and maybe it could happen. This date(s) has been coming up again and again.

Interesting post from 33andrain, so as I read it the -SOI is manifested in such a way currently that the effects are not typical. Posted 6 hours ago No surprises there.... We are in a major WWB, and it is having a negative effect on the SOI, by pushing a more tropical signal out towards Tahiti. More interestingly, the one thing the WWB is not affecting is the FT It is near it's negative low point, which seems to be contrary to the massive addition of westerly momentum. I don't think it is a coincidence, that the only +FT in the last three months was during the only strong WWB in the Eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent on and around the 25th Dec.

inside 290 hours, hey, thats better !

You still thinkin we have a window of snow in early March. regardless of all the mixed views and insights about the SOI, it sure has been on a tear. I wish for some STJ action in early March or at least a blip -NAO , maybe slow the flow

It did little overall to help us, partly some say due to the QBO this winter and other factors as well.