frd

its been a tough winter for everyone

Damn I feel like enlisting . Inspiring !!!!

This is pretty cool too ! A sting jet !

What a site to behold ! 968 mb low too, wow !!!!

Crazy out West

The FV3-GFS delay.....if true , well, not surprising at all. If that is the Flagship model we are in trouble. I mean one issue are temps I heard, and the other is in the last 4 months the model has predicted ( for this forum ) 843 inches of 10:1 snowfall of which only 7.2 inches have fallen, roughly LOL.

Remarkable Spring weather incoming, ha ha no pending heat wave, nor dew points in the 70's , just normal. That's funny, is there a so-called normal anymore with the weather. I believe I read somewhere we have no had a so-called normal temp months in a long, long time. Maybe we get that in the extended past the early week cool down.

Looking at the radar now at Denver where my daughter is, well pure joy if you love snow ! Wish I were there. Blizzard warning now and really ramping up there, Wow. I miss Bomb Cyclones.

I am tired of fast transitions. Be nice to enjoy low dews and refreshing temps for a bit. I mean, I always expect a freak'in humid and hot summer every year. Keep those bugs at bay too.

Hearing from some mets and pros as well, this might be a nice Spring versus winter then summer and no spring to be had. That would be a welcome change. All I can think when I see these ( last chance snow runs ) is how much money the person or group could make once they get forecasts to become close to just 80 % accurate at leads. And why has there not been a Bond villian that was an evil weather bad guy ? The potential plot of the movie could go in multiple directions and the movie would lend itself to the most incredible footage ever seen on the big screen , I would envision a combination of both images, footage , etc with real hurricane, tornado, blizzard footage, rogue waves, sunamis, and more and of course special effects too. That would be a weather weenie 007 dream come true.

Meanwhile my daughter in Denver is at the SW edge of the newest forming Blizzard....... rinse and repeat. What a year out in sections of the Eastern Rockies and extending NE to the Upper Plains. Simply incredible !

That has been the hallmark of this winter from the beginning. No slowing down the Pac jet, no blocking , no -NAO and no +PNA. and a pathetic + AO ( Judah ) Everything we need in one fom or another, even in combination, never got going. ( except for maybe I say 5 % of the time ) If I saw a deep -NAO and some other signals I maybe say this had a chance, but no way we get any snow from this system. Like you said , for every one that has worked for us in this setup 99 others have failed.

I didn't have to wear my ski cap hat today. I lose a lot of body heat from my lack of hair, LOL ....... and getting a short, 1.5 cut does not help either.

I will never put as much faith, or belief, in seasonal models again after this winter total concensus failure !! Nor will I weigh the opinion from long range forecasters as seriously after this season. Might use the tool of the past , the cirrus clouds and the lowering sky. You know as I age I tend to miss the days of long ago when snowstorms came into view from a few days away. I enjoy the weather, the extremes and tracking, but honestly maybe next winter I go 72 hours without looking at a model and even listening to a forecast. I like to be surprised once more before I die.

Ah...................-NAO I miss you so.

The GEM and the FV3 are never, ever, ever right in regards to snowfall. Its time to think warm thoughts. It's ooover.

Chuck what do you think next winter in regards to the -NAO ?

Excellent summary ! Wonder what the PDO associations are like across the means. Wondering to myself whether the PDO is more positive in stronger El Ninos. Yes, would be my guess.

You could charge for this type of advice. Priceless !

Hey psu you need to leave teaching and start your own weather site with showme and BobChill as consultants and CAPE can be a market maker. Lets corner the energy and commodities markets and take DT's share away. LOL

Many of the weather indicies that were forecasted to be in our favor this year did not show up as expected. Many seasonal models that hardly go with a -NAO like the uKmet had one , it was on the CFS, the JAMSTEC and the Euro Pretty big fumble on the seasonal models. I think the AO and the NAO averaged positive for the D to F period. The red flag was the Pac Jet coming right into the West Coast and breaking up any attempts at High pressure there.

Another Winter of Flatliners ................ the NAO was a real bummer That Scandi -NAO back in late November was a head fake, NAO never tanked. Still feel that had the -AO tanked the NAO would have done as well, that was on the table too a couple times. Never happened as we all know. We are lucky some got snow at all. A Northern Plains and New Mexico winter.

The Casino Royale of weather picks

A pretty cool animation . Make that COLD, not cool.

Nasty out there, high Noon and just 24 degrees , very impressive with snow showers forming out to the far West more further North with a short term forecast about them from Mount Holly a little ago. Friday looks colder in the Northern parts with that snow potential. a mini mid-winter run here.