frd

Some interesting possibilities ahead.....

Very frustrated. Just got back frm a day trip the beach and returning home expecting at least some rain, as my area was under a flash flood watch and a severe thunderstorm watch. Nothing at all. Third time this summer under a FFW and zero precip. ( at least up to this time of posting ) All the action well to my South and East.

For those beach goers heads up to possible rip currents. There has been a pesky and eratic long period swell. Nothing too crazy, but heard there were several rescues the past several days. From mount holly RIP CURRENTS... The rip current forecast today is similar to yesterday and will be dependent on the swell period. The swell period has been varying between 5-15 seconds the last couple of days. When the longer period takes over, the swell is only 1-2 feet, but when the period is shorter, the swell is higher at 2-3 feet. With the variable conditions, we will have a moderate risk for dangerous rip current formation today.

Crazy thimes are these. What this means as signs to the NH I have no idea, but a very impressive event event down there.

Goes to show you how hard the NAO is to predict, no one really knows, including the models and even the impressive EPS.

To follow up on the -NAO I took this image from the NY City forum, again courtesy of bluewave, where I asked him a question about the changing cold pool and how it has warmed. This really shows the dramatic change in the Atlantic SSTs over the past couple months. Also, look to the Pac and the Gulf of Alaska, as you know Alaska has been seeing incredible warmth. maybe lead to a +PDO. This is only a anomaly map, but still very interesting. I recall reading or hearing, a very warm Atlantic in October and November can act like a magnet drawing cold to its source region off of the North Amercian continet later in October and early November. Don't hold me to that as I believe I read it years ago. And, these so called changes can occur on the flip of switch. Similiar to last year.

Today's guidance even deeper with the -NAO coming up. On on the flip side, this has caused a significant increase in the SST up North. (chart courtesy of bluewave )

Should be illegal to even commnet on the weeklies once we get to close winter. Sorry, did I say weeklies, I mean the weaklings ...

Where is Chuck ? If the cycle of the NAO goes according to plan we will bake next winter with a super strong WAR. Just kidding, but the remarkable continuation of NAO blocking continues, as it means nothing now for cooler, actually in later summer it is associated with warmer weather here. But when it flips it will last for many months.

Borrowed from bluewave's posting ..... interesting that his area, and ours, are the warmest across the country. Of note to me is the cold pool and the cooler temps far to the NE and the warmth near us from NYC to Eastern NC, associated possibly with the warm Atlantic SSTs.

Never heard of it - so I had to look it up....... fascinating read here volitile oils reacting with sunlight. Feel better . https://web.extension.illinois.edu/cfiv/homeowners/090611.html

There is a silver lining in all scenarios, but when I just looked at the 30 day rainfall map, wow, to the striking totals from feast to famine. I have been very lucky. Some areas are so dry. From BWI NE and NW near Mappy land have big time totals, Philly big and other areas to the West and SW and South are very dry. Some areas that are dry are like micro areas, not very large but still much drier than the areas around them. The bottom line is that totals across the forum are not uniform.

Figures about the coupling I think in the early winter we lacked coupling, and had the long duration + SOI for weeks on end

Use with caution........

From Don S. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.57°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance now shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions.

Not sure what it was that went through my area last night at 4:10 AM to 4:45 AM but it produced strong sustained winds and heavy rain, little thunder. Almost like a mini-derecho. Rank it in the top 2 or 3 storms of the spring summer season so far ..... and there have been many. Looked on my android at the mount holly radar and it showed a strong cluster of rainfall/storms moving from SW to NE The cool part was the cluster at the lower portion, my area and others, rotated and swirled as it moved across the area. Hardly ever see that . I see many down limbs this AM driving around. Over .60 from that storm alone

previous location from a a few years back of a confirmed tornado touchdown

Some incredibly loud thunder here and a lot of lightening. Worse is over, but the rain continues.

Blinding rain here and rumblings of thunder..... Northern Delaware from the C and D Canal is getting rocked right now Wife at Super market lights just went out , crazy dark here , really low ceiling

This record would be cool in the winter months. Maybe yes, maybe no, but 83 days, wow ! Seems the cold pool was responsible for the long cycle of the -NAO.

Hopefully it will be. The ingredients are there for a more region-wide rainfall. I was lucky last night to pick up some rain, storm went warned. Incredible lightening and very heavy rain, also experienced a gust front as well prior ro the rain. Good luck to you with the rain !

WPC did a little tweak: the primary change from the previous outlook was to expand the moderate risk area that was primarily over the Mid Atlantic farther to the southwest across WV to the eastern KY/Southwest VA/northeast TN area. This was to cover where the model consensus for heavy totals coincided with lower ffg values. These areas are also where the higher href neighborhood probabilities for 2 and 3"+ amounts are...80 to 90%+ for 2" and 50 to 80% for 3".

97/77 heat index 113 highest so far, going outside now to water the bases of the veggies .

Some inland water temps are just nuts Bolded is the recent temp Delaware City DE 83.7 (07/21/2019 18:36 UTC) 81 83 83 80 76 73 67 61 Lewes DE 78.8 (07/21/2019 18:48 UTC) 71 74 76 75 73 70 65 58 Reedy Point DE 86.9 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 80 82 81 80 77 73 67 61 Annapolis MD 76 78 78 77 75 71 66 60 Baltimore MD 84.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 77 78 79 79 77 72 66 61 Chesapeake City MD 89.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 81 83 83 81 77 73 67 60 Ocean City MD 69.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 68 69 71 71 71 69 65 59 Solomons Island MD 86.4 (07/21/2019 18:48 UTC) 79 81 82 84 79 73 66 61 Tolchester Beach MD 87.8 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC) 79 81 80 79 76 71 66 59 Washington DC 87.4 (07/21/2019 18:42 UTC)