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26 degreees here. Even colder than yesterday morning.

Those chasing the FV3 got about 3 flakes in a passing snow shower, versus the 86 inches it forecasted. Not to mention 81 pages of tracking an empty winter full of false hopes. In the future everyone should temper expectations and put little confidence in any forecaster who does the long range winter thing. In this day and age, and the way things are going globally, I personally feel no one currently can predict seasonal weather in advance better than simple climo.

Certainly no indications of sudden summer, which is nice, maybe eventually a nice period of real spring weather for once.

Better yet, snow boots or surf board ? Might take until 2020 for the FV3 to go operational as the flagship model. What a waste of time that model - should develop a tool that blocks models not just posters.

We both know there are many that get very worried when the fall is dry. But, alas that is not a bad thing, just like so many misconceptions out there from sunlight in March and snow accumulating , to SSWE and blizzards are coming, to early season snowfalls are a curse to winter snowfall, ( hold on I have to think about that one a little more )

Winds are wicked here. Gusts to 46 mph Still thankful the leaves are not out yet. Trash can flying around - had to bungie it . Simply nasty out there.

Super wet here as well. Mold on many surfaces, much worse than last year. Ground super saturated and soggy. Farming might be delayed if we remain cold and wet.

I see this on Mount Holly Update too : With the heaviest of the rain being over, will go ahead and cancel the Flood Watch. Any lingering flooding will subside, but localized street flooding may redevelop with the passage of additional showers. Cannot rule out some convectively induced 40 to 45 mph wind gusts this afternoon. Highs today will range from the 30s in the far northern zones, and otherwise in the 40s to low 50s. &&

Well, stay dry mappy, hope things improve soon. Seems the numbers of storms that drop high amounts of rain are on the rise. Last year was actually a good year for me in the garden, I preferred that dry period kept tomato disease away, but once the rains came combined with the very high dew points everything went downhill fast. By early Sept I already cleared my garden out. Gardening requires a love and a passion similiar to the weather weenines when we have a snowless winter. If I dont plant a garden my wife will get very mad at me, so I say, " yes dear, of course, I am planting a garden this year" , ha ha !! ( I don't say the ha ha part though )

Wow, incredible ! Are there farms near you mappy ? Here in my area we have many corn fields and it is truly a mess with flooding and it will take a while to improve , if and when, we ever get any drier weather. Plus the sod farms hit very hard. Everything pushed back, plus the garden centers, well some of them will not even stock flowers of any type yet because next week we go below freezing in the AM hours again.

The fine line we live on here. But true, honestly impressive for late March in a crap winter. Keeping the buds in check and the grass from growing. All good if you have to care for your landscape. A gradual spring is fine in my eyes.

Too funny, granted it's far from certain, but that would be a fitting ending to a fitting beginning. And, the Euro did not get the memo form DT stating winter is over, make that never started, or was ii cancelled. Hard to keep track.

I know the final outcome is more than just the NAO and AO but flow, and confluence, etc., but I almost can see this happening. Regardless though, will not be doing any gardening yet. Its cold out there.

Ah, makes sense, maybe a novice example might be a combo way of forecasting such as : 70 % modeling and 30 % persistence and see where the chips fall.

Thats fascinating , wonder whether science supports this at all or whether it is simple persistence but then is that based on some repeating formula that gives us the least snowiest outcome on most long range forecasts. So persistence is science based, certainly not random noise or luck ??

Consistency does not = correct outcome Two years ago the GFS for 22 runs in a row had a SECS for us, the Euro never had such a forecast. Guess what, the GFS was wrong, duh...... never got a flake. Problem this year is the Euro blows too and its brother the weeklies.

just cutters and surpressed. or once in a while a hugger and rain.

Ahhh......So pretty......

Nice to see your are so kind to Old Man Winter. I can think of a few choice words for this winter that are not very nice.

Why do folks even put 5 % faith in that model, you do better playing power ball with odds. This model is so messed up it is delayed again. It is sad the state of American modeling. But, to be fair all, models fall out sometimes, verification-wise, but then rebound. I don't even read about the FV3 and snowfall when I see it, because I know it will never verify. The CMC is more likely to be correct than the FV3

Not sure where this belongs but a good post about the upcoming Spring in the Arctic and the ice melt and consequences there of, and what we will be dealing with over the summer months after next winter because of it. Highly speculative of course. But to divert for just a moment, I have to say it is very sad the things that are happening to wild life in the Arctic. Last night I watched on Netflix program/movie about the Far North and how various animals, whales, birds move up to the Arctic after the melt and it was indeed sad to see the polar bear struggle to locate ice and even move around. They risk drowning and starving as well due to the lack of ice and inability to hunt for seals because of the lack of ice. Moving on thereis already talk about the fragile ice cover up there now andhow the upcoming warmer season will effect the ice cover. There is speculation it could effect the hadley cell, maybe move sub tropical highs further North in time. I am talking short term not climate change here. But here is that post. <<<<<< Posted March 10 Getting close to the true melting season now (after s false start a week ago), and the time to review the state of affairs with a eye to what vulnerabilities are greater or less compared to recent years. I need to allocate some time to look in detail but my initial impressions are a stronger ice situation on the Atlantic side but mostly in areas that should melt out regardless, and weaker ice on the Asian and Pacific sides - even compared to 2018 for the latter which is really saying something; there was some crazy opening of waters last week before some recovery but with the ice of course being very thin and fragile now. Given the weak Asian side ice, it’s concerning to see snow cover extent running some 1 SD below normal and with modelling suggesting little in the way of cold spells to try and turn things around within the next few weeks. Could be an exceptionally or even record early spring warmup for quite a lot of the high altitudes of Asia unless the modelling is wide of the mark. >>>>>>> A very insightful and at times somewhat shocking video. What hits me hardest (edging out the part about what happens after the latent heat of fusion stops being required) is the sea ice thickness plot for 8th March shown at 8:58. Compared with last year's already record low mid-March thickness, the ice away from the Canadian coasts is another 0.5 to 2.0 m thinner this year - placing a lot of it in the sub-2 m thickness category which typically fails to survive even a modest melting season. Last year with the widely 1.5 to 3.0 m thick ice, I was thinking it could be a bad one if the weather's either very warm and clear or very stormy - in the end it was neither so we lucked out. This year, I believe it'll take an unusually cloudy and calm summer to save the sub-2 m ice. Not a common combination for obvious reasons. So it seems to me that there's a high probability of going below the 2012 minimum this year - but one can't be too presumptuous given all the complex feedback mechanisms in place so I'll reserve any firm judgements until we've seen what the next few months bring. If and when we see a 'blue ocean' event with 1 mn or less square km of sea ice at minimum, we'll enter a period of fascinating but, sadly, most likely very disruptive climatic responses. Even where we're at currently, I'm seeing evidence that the Hadley Cell has strengthened with a greater incidence of unusually strong and persistent ridges at the mid-latitudes in recent years. Such as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge that brought extreme drought to California, and the multiple runs of 2-3 weeks of HP-dominated weather across the UK during the past year or so (including the one that culminated in the record-high Feb temps for large swathes of the UK & Europe), of which there appears to be yet another in the works (starting on Monday; duration not yet certain but the trend is longer and longer!). Seasons featuring a Blue Ocean event may see the Hadley Cell strengthen even further, bringing even more resilient ridges to the mid-latitudes. There could (I must stress the speculation here; this is all based on theoretical modelling) even be a persistent poleward shift of the subtropical high pressure belt, which would shift the climate zones north with it; e.g. Mediterranean turns more like desert, and temperate (such as the UK) turns more like Mediterranean. I'm not sure how long this would take though; could be within one decade or some half a dozen. I know that in the late 90s there was a lot of buzz in the UK over climate change bringing a trend toward Mediterranean-style summers by the late 21st Century but I feel that the rates of change (due to overlooked feedbacks) were being seriously underestimated back then. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> END

Thank god he did not say the other word to add to it ..............Bomb cyclone

<< I am going to be direct since you "aren't a snowflake"... you aren't telling it like it is, you are being an ass. >> Well @psuhoffman Gangster RAP made him act like that ......crap snow totals make you loose your sanity , and add in some Gangsta rap, well you know the deal.

C - based on below climo here at my location ( wish I were in psu land ) general blah winter , no real severe intervals, even missing the intense squalls that brought near 0 visibility to areas North of me. D - based on pre-season perception vs reality ( F - to all the long range seasonal models, they sucked ! ) D + to the AO and SAI , another poor showing

In this corner we have the mighty -SOI weighing in at almost 37 days in row negative, and in the other corner we have the mighty +AO , at a positive reading for 36 days in a row! And the WINNER is by a TKO the mighty + AO beating the -SOI . And in the process dashing hopes on the East Coast of a snowy March, Boooooo The El Nino was disqualifed in the opening match due to steroid detection at testing time.