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Certainly a shift North with the heaviest rain this week. What appeared like a heavy rain threat a few days is now hundreds of miles North of here. The Southeast starts to dry out. Pretty dry for the areas near Atlanta.

Looks like May arrives with the WAR starting to gain traction, and also precip on the increase as well. From Mount Holly NWS : With the strengthening ridge retrogressing into the Southeast early next week, the front associated with the Monday night system will not make it far to the south. In fact, it may be within the CWA for much of the rest of the week. This would allow for subsequent systems to move into the area, providing frequent bouts of showers/storms. The first system appears to affect the region on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the GFS/CMC/ECMWF all hinting at this potential. With a lengthy southerly fetch to the south of the quasi-stationary front, instability should be increasing (both boundary-layer based near/to the south of the boundary and elevated poleward of the boundary). Increased mention of thunder on Tuesday and Wednesday as a result. The CMC would suggest that ridging intensifies sufficiently for the warm sector to filter into the entire area on Wednesday, but the GFS/ECMWF are somewhat more skeptical (the GFS more so than the ECMWF). I am hesitant to follow the CMC, given its tendency to be too amplified and too ridgy in the medium range. Maintained mentionable PoPs across the area as a result, though they are subtly higher north of the Interstate 76 corridor. Notably, the models suggest heavy precipitation in New York/New England on Wednesday as a surface low moves through and considerable large-scale lift combines with increased moisture/instability to produce widespread showers/storms. My worry here is that the strong convection will actually prevent the front from surging northward as much as the more aggressive guidance is depicting. To some degree, this will depend on how much convection develops in the central plains and Mississippi Valley earlier in the week, with latent heat release via the convection acting to amplify the subtropical ridge to our south (i.e., downstream of the convection). Should this convection be more pronounced than progged, the farther north solutions are more likely to verify. By Thursday, the ridging begins to deamplify, no doubt aided by convective outflow to the north/west. Yet another perturbation will move through the Northeast, initiating more convection along the waffling boundary. Model consensus shows another such system may affect the region on Friday, with the front making only slow progress southward. As such, PoPs are maintained through the end of the week. This pattern favors heavy rainfall along and north of the quasi- stationary boundary. Though the heaviest rainfall would be to the north and west of the area given current model projections, there is certainly potential for this axis to shift southward with subsequent model runs. Additionally, at least northern portions of the CWA could see multiple inches of rain through the week. With models nudging the warm sector northward as subtropical ridging becomes entrenched to our south, generally adjusted temperatures upward next week. The biggest impacts were on Tuesday and Wednesday, where highs/lows were raised several degrees. However, with the front`s ultimate placement in question, the temperature forecast next week is of lower-than-average confidence.

Same here CAPE, I missed any rotaton to my North but of note was the intense rainfall so loud in fact that is blocked out the thunder which was almost a constant hum. I was in a warned area though. This storm did not compare at all with the rather intense cell (s) we had earlier this week. The one that hit us at 2:45 AM and lasted unabated until 3:15 AM. Constant winds over 35 gusting to 60 That was a every 4 year storm to me. The winds should dry things nicely tomorrow , maybe cut the grass again.

Damn this might be close .... Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 MDC015-029-262100- /O.CON.KPHI.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-190426T2100Z/ Kent MD-Cecil MD- 429 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 429 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Betterton, or 7 miles southeast of Aberdeen Proving Ground, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Elkton, Cecilton, Betterton, Warwick, Sassafras, Bohemias Mills, Newtown, Brantwood, Cayots, Hollywood Beach, Kennedyville, Chesapeake City and Galena. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the path of dangerous weather.

Tornado Warning Tornado Warning MDC015-029-035-262030- /O.NEW.KPHI.TO.W.0006.190426T2001Z-190426T2030Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 401 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2019 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Queen Anne`s County in northeastern Maryland... Kent County in northeastern Maryland... Southwestern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 401 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Bodkin Point, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Chestertown, Rock Hall, Betterton, Newtown, Morgnec, Kennedyville, Langford and Kingstown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly NJ. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. &&

Heard a water spout crossing the Chessie SE of Baltimore

That last enhanced risk for my area was like a mini derecho. Where as that line hit at 2:45 AM this looks like maybe 6 PM here. I am hoping for no downed trees, finally got the yard looking nice. Will be an interesting late afternoon. Also, just like the last time, the winds will be stong tomorrow around the area, however, doubt we get the high wind advisory, but you never know. The last advisory was posted rather late. Has been an active April for sure .

Good point psu, in a grand sense we should know soon enough, but some additional patience will be required, as it looks like we still have a ways to go. This will be a rather low solar min.

Another La Plata tornado possibly, time for another one. I remember 2002 like it was just yesterday. https://www.wusa9.com/video/weather/local/home-video-of-la-plata-maryland-ef-5-tornado-on-april-28-2002/65-2583120

We are still headed down, the ultimate effect on the global temps and certain weather indicies to hard to predict. I believe there might be an asscoiation with more volcanic eruptions during the lower solar cycles, or lowest point in the solar min. https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/st07500u.html

Felt OK overall, but in the shade it felt very nice. Garden stores doing a brisk business the last two days. Might put some stuff in the garden on Saturday, temps should be great but heard it could be very windy.

From Don S . ( seems Don thinks May for the NYC area will be on the warmer side, I tend to agree. ) Also, the Western Atlanic is warming up as well, I noticed last week. I am just hoping we don't set records again for super high dews that last from May to October again, like last summer. <<<< This afternoon, the clouds broke and the sun returned. The temperature soared into the middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow and Tuesday could see even warmer temperatures. 　 The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño should persist through April in Region 3.4. 　 The SOI was -12.84 today. 　 Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.721. 　 The closing 10 days of the month will likely be generally warmer than normal. Since 1950, there have been 6 cases where the AO dropped to -2.500 or below during the April 1-10 period, as happened on April 7. The mean April 16-30 temperature was 56.3° with a standard deviation of 2.3°. The implied probability of a warmer than normal April is currently 97%. There is also an implied 77% probability that April 2019 will wind up among the 10 warmest April cases on record and 63% probability that it will wind up among the 5 warmest April cases on record. 　 The mean temperature for May following April cases with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above is 63.0°. It is likely that April 2019 will finish with a mean temperature of 56.0° or above. The dynamic guidance and statistical guidance are in agreement that May will wind up on the warm side of normal in the New York City area. 　 On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.009(RMM). The amplitude was above the April 19-adjusted figure of 0.878. The April 20 amplitude ended the 37-day stretch during which the amplitude was below 1.000. That was the longest such stretch since the MJO was at a low amplitude for 39 consecutive days from April 21, 2015 through May 29, 2015. >>>>>

Crisp and enjoyable out there !

To some the weekend has started early. Many folks I know are off tomorrow.

You are correct, there was a rather dramatic decrease in areal QPF in the latest WPC discussion and forecast. Not often do you see such a reduction close to real time from them. What was consistent for over 8 cycles, 4 days, has shifted the heaviest rainfall well South of us , coinciding with the higher severe risk. I am still expecting a decent rainfall event but not epic.

Not nearly as bad up here above the canal, but that was a wicked cells/line from 2:45 AM to about 3:16 AM. We were in a warned area at that time from Mount Holly. Almost like a mini derecho. Continuous heavy rain, blinding sheets and constant high wind and then gusts, maybe up to 55 to 60 . The only missing element were winds higher to say 70 or more. Thought there would be many downed tree but got very, very lucky. Only broken limbs.

Well, when Yellow Stone goes it will forecast 7, 788, 789, 657 inches of snow. ( give or take 100, 000 inches ) No model is perfect LOL

Wow, I wish I were in Denver, winds to 60 mph , 5 t0 10 inches of snow !

Yoda, what are your feelings for the Delaware area with storms later today. Thanks. I do see a hazard mention up for the upper Bay to my West.

Appears the wet returns next week near this time, sahifting East in time. Might get a remarkable cold day in there too, mixed into an otherwise normal temp distribution.

@C.A.P.E.Why is the chickweed doing so well this year, I noticed that as well. Another new observations after 20 years here in Middletown, DE is the onion grass is really spreading into a lot of lawns. I have never seen as much as this year.

Agreed, very dry, and dusty here. Went to do some weeding and the ground is a brick. Grass slow to grow, which is fine with me, but the dryness makes it difficult to work in the flower beds. Also, I read for those who use Dimensions and other pre and even post emergents that for the best results you need .50 inches of rain. My forecast here is not too encouraging for rainfall, it figures it drys up when you really like at least some moisture. Once the SOI flipped seems the rainfall went poof.

Snow in the dessert.

The model that cried wolf.

The guys across the pond are laughing at this future flagship American model. I am sure we could do a lot better if this had real government support and dollars, along with a high priority to create a top performing model able to surpass the Euro over time.