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You could wager May is going to be normal temp wise, and above with precip. The - NAO a beast right now, with another possible down cycle and the AO looks to stay negative for a while. Crazy....

Fascinating

Soil moisture super high I would bet, looking at the next 7 days to our South and West.

Back edge on the move , expect some hard downpours as this baby pulls away.

We are ahead of last year at this time in terms of rainfall and moisture. I hate to think about the dews in June to early Sept. ugh !

Same here despite the favorable jet region, and high PWAT not really impressive.

I agree. The heat can stay away until July or never. Currently hazy here, dew at 63 , temp at 73, hardly a breeze at all.

here as well. the humidity the last week has been an omen of things to come

Where was this in Jan and Feb. Of course the weeklies showed this outcome, over and over, but it never came. A host of mets echoed the thoughts of the long range models as well. For example, you can not say it was the Nino now because the Nino is not any stronger. The SSTs Se of Aussie look the same as they were in the winter. QBO the same. SOI is not really crazy negative nor is the 90 day that incredible. Maybe we have coupling, I simply don't know. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 FollowFollow @judah47 More 7:08 AM - 3 May 2019 11 Retweets 54 Likes I know this is geeky but I am fascinated by the strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling in May with quick & strong descent of polar cap heights & how it is much more "textbook" than the event this past January, where the signal became hung up at the tropopause. Plenty to learn!

Good call Mount Holly NWS , full sun here now, temps going up rapidly into the 70's.

Long range has potential, after the 15 th.

Wow, an incredible collection of videos within that link, thanks for posting mappy !

Maybe we get feedback moving forward , note the warmth over the SW Atlantic and already the SSTs are above normal in the Western Atlantic.

Getting brighter here currently. Mount Holly thinks the warm front may reach as far North as Philly by late afternoon. May need to watch the Delmarva later. from AM update FXUS61 KPHI 031344 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 AM EDT Fri May 3 2019 Another shortwave trough will begin approaching the region by late afternoon and into the early evening hours. Thus, this time frame will be a focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop. Currently not expecting and of these storms to be severe, but given modest instability during the late afternoon, cannot rule out a rogue strong storm or two perhaps reaching severe criteria, particularly across Delmarva.

Latest Mount Holly for my area - clearing, mostly sunny late day. Onr thing of nasty note are the freakin mosquittos , so many even in the day light. Something on the news my wife saw about the kissing bug in Delaware ........... not very good .....seriously https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/25/health/kissing-bug-delaware-case-cdc-study-trnd/index.html

Walked out this AM near 6 and the moisture in the air and chill was like hitting a brick wall. Already the dew hit 69 yesterday late day yesterday. This weather sucks ! Coffee is nice in the morning but nothing like the rays of sun.

You can add - AO too. Check this out. Many thought this past March would get this significant - AO drop, resulting in a cold and snowy early March period. We know how that turned out.

The real -NAO retro The real Spring continues, Maybe early next week with a couple gems, until we reload the wet and then back to seasonable yet again.

Are you sure there are no monsters ? Did you check behind you

@bluewave Do you feel the general warmth and especially the warmth in the recent fall months, Sept and October mostly, has been associated with the above average SST off the East Coast and the nature of the WAR. A sort of feedback taking place possibly which also plays a role in moisture transport up along the East Coast and warmer over night lows via higher dews. Any thoughts? Thanks !

The Western Atlantic certainly seems to have the potential to be above average SST-wise during the summer. Wonder the implications as we near August to October in regards to tropical activity. To me another aspect of this may be a summer pattern of rather warm over night lows and above average precip, high dews, etc. Hard to say whether it is going to be like last summer where we set records for duration of high dew points. I remember waiting for Westerly winds for surfing off the Jersey beachs and all the prevailing winds last summer averagerd moreso SW, S, ENE , etc. few frontal passages. something says we get a few more frontal passages this summer but it still reverts back to a mostly warmer than normal summer. I don't think we go crazy hot and drought-like mostly because of normal rainfall to even above.

Interesting

I am so happy not to have to read about the Euro weeklies being epic. LOL. Just have to worry about all the bugs around. Seems like last week we were discusiing the winter outlook, and now we are less than a month to the start of summer. The guy who did great with the winter forecast for Feb, went warm with less snow ) has our areas in the + 2 degrees above normal contour for the period June through August, it seems reasonable these days. Have to check the precip outlook.

Was thinking no heat , is this real.

There was talk of a final; warming for the past several weeks. Of real interest is the -NAO, the most siginifcant drop in ages. Honestly, not sure the last time it went that low. Not on this chart.