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From Mount Holly for today, and I noticed a 90 degree reading possible in Southern Delaware. Looks like severe potential lower but the odds of getting into some thunderstorm activity better than yesterday 000 FXUS61 KPHI 201026 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 626 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front associated with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes into Canada will cross our region this afternoon and evening. High pressure is then expected for Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front arrives in our area late Thursday night and Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday which may stall to our south on Sunday. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A quiet start to the morning after a muggy and humid night. Temperatures will once again be on the rise, with most places making it into the mid to upper 80s. Portions of southern Delaware and the Eastern Shore of Maryland may in fact reach 90. Slightly cooler along the shore and in the higher terrain of the Poconos with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front moves southeastward across the mid-Atlantic. The severe threat appears to be lower than yesterday, though non- zero. The Storm Prediction Center has our area under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. Instability looks to be lower than yesterday with ML CAPE values forecast to top around 2000 J/kg. Shear will be a little lower as well, with 0-3 km shear forecast to be less than 30 knots, thus a little less supportive of stronger thunderstorm cells. With the timing of the front, storms look to fire a little further southeast than yesterday, likely initiating along the Delaware River Valley by 4 to 5 pm and moving offshore by 9 to 10 pm. There could be some localized flooding concerns in areas that see brief heavy rainfall, but storm motion should prevent as much training as was seen yesterday.

Do you think there is the potential of damaging winds in some of the storms? Mount Holly mentions this in the forecast discussion. I believe they have a 40 % chance of storms. Stated main threat are the possible damaging winds later today. It sure feels soupy out there. Dew point of 66 here presently.

Wow, the the continued forecasted extreme heat in Fla. , Ga., NC and SC. Euro and the EPS are remarkable in terms of the early season heat potential.

Wonder if the wave 6 pattern forecasted later next week ( high wavenumbers k=6+ ) is a byproduct of the recent huge -AO and -NAO. Ventrice points out this global pattern has produced extreme weather events before, and mentions the SE heat wave coming up :

Wow to Monday for Texas and OK., it might be an awesome day. Some signals are really historic for the potential of severe weather and tornadoes out there.

From Maue, his use of words inspires extremes at times , ah the weather Death ridge

That is why I believe it may not be record setting heat as showme mentioned, but alas I fear very high dews and above normal overnight low temps. Last summer was aweful for lawn fungus. Left many bare spots. I remember Joel Myers many many years ago stating you need super heated air to move ENE from the SW states to really hit all time highs, over rather dry grounds. Right now the mid center of the US is wet and the next 7 days via the WPC is super wet.

Well, the NWS forecast I justed checked has it at 79 degrees F. on Saturday afternoon as a high temp. Saturday::: A slight chance of showers after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%. The upper Bay is cool still, but when you zero in on the winds during Saturday afternoon they are very light and variable. I believe wind is a non-factor, hence the air temp should not really be effected by the Bay SStT.

The rain here was rather heavy for a short period of time.

Certainly going to be hot in the SE and maybe implications for us further down the road, or maybe not. Also of note, the drying trend in the SE as well , maybe eventually get feedback and of course warming waters as well in the SW Atlantic

From Don S. over in the NYC forum: The recent strong shot of cold that has gripped the Middle Atlantic and New England regions is nearing an end. Readings will be notably warmer tomorrow across much of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The SOI was -9.79 today. Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.455. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period. On May 13, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 20.42 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the May 12-adjusted figure of 1.995. Looking ahead, historic experience suggests that it remains very likely that May will see one or more days with high temperatures in the 80s as far north as New York City. Further, the EPS signal above to sometimes much above normal readings could be possible during the closing 10 days of May. Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May is approximately 51%.

How much straw did you put down in terms of thickness, thin or a thick amount ? And wood chips does seems interesting . What about regular mulch, any thoughts on that ? I am not talking the dyed type, just a basic mulch. I guess if my garden was in total sun I would simply use straw as EJ mentioned. I need to decide in a couple weeks what to do.

Battlezone of storms maybe. Ventrice thinks activity picks up next week. Plus, this weekend I expect the beginnings of a rapid warm up in the surf zone ocean temps , I am betting on 70 degree ocean temps by June 30th, we are at 55 degrees F. right now near Cape May, NJ

You could be right showme. Maybe we transition to the warmest anomalies of the summer in August and September. This would certainly fit some summers in this decade. Granted, there have been some recent summers in this decade as well where the late Spring and early summer experienced the worst, heat-wise. After those temp spikes we had warm summers with high dews which made it seem hotter. The current Atlantic cold pool would argue for possibly more intrusions of cooler air in the weeks ahead. Was talking with bluewave and asked him a question about the warm SW Atlantic SSTs, and the relationship to supporting a warm feedback pattern. What bluewave shared with me was very interesting. When you look at recent record warmth the past few years many records are located along the outter ring of the WAR. So basically the SE and Eastern Coastal and interior locations experienced numerous high temp records. Seems to a degree you could speculate that the SW Atlantic warmth may be extending the Summer heat into the early Fall for the Eastern States close to the coast. Also maybe a relationship to the high night time min temps, with those high dews. Very fascinating indeed. The last few years shows another interesting occurrence, HL blocking wants to develop late in the winter and many times in the Spring. The winter itself, lacked real -NAO. What this means I am not sure.

I would be surprised by a non-hot summer as depoicted by this. Many are calling for super hot and triple digits for this coming summer. Ah, many were calling for severe cold and snow in the winter too. I always recall DT stating watch the concensus and go counter. Sometimes there is too much concensus.

This is pretty cool from Ventrice.

Wow, this is simply brillant, thanks a bunch !

I wish you the best with your plants. Hopefully the end of the week is better garden weather. While we are talking plants all these decades I have planted tomatoes and finally figured out why in mid summer my pretty tomatoes plants get that leaf color change to yellow-ish and then they curl up and gradually the stem and leaves curl up and die . I thought it was magnesium, then thought it was lime, ( ph level ) then though it was too much water ( well the too much water at one times gives you the cracks you see in tomatoes, but it is not responsible for the blight and leaves curling, etc. Finally discovered it is a some sort of fungus in the soil. I read by mid summer when the grounds warm up, that when you water your plants it splashes up the soil and makes contact with the lower leaves and then works its way up the plant. Once in the soil little you can do about it ( I think ) So the only solution is to put mulch or other barrier to prevent the splash up . Mappy, you have this problem with your tomotoes ?

Wow, did you plant a garden? I measured 1.40 inches in my gauge in the last 5 days. This side of the Bay the rainfall was less to a degree, and the areas effected more random. More uniform in your area I believe. I planted my garden, or most of it , on this past Saturday waiting and waiting for a dry spell which never happened. The plants were looking not so good so I had no other choice. Will have to assess by Thursday the impact of the recent wet soil and nasty conditions on the tiny plants

Was too cold and now maybe too warm ( hot in this case )

One issue might be the percentage of sunshine, just seems like many days have been cloudy, or mosty cloudy, or simply transitioning to cloud cover after a sunny sunrise, few brillant sunny days for sure.

Pouring at the C and D Canal

Some more record low max temps today. Had to put the heat on late last night.

Wow, sounds awesome ! Yum yum !!! Have a great evening ! Your kids are talented :-)

When this runs its course, wondering whether the rubberband snaps back in reverse and we bake to record levels later in the month and in June ?