Jump to content

frd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,802

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Agreed ! FYI. Looks like May will end up above normal. Funny how much easier it is to get above normal in the summer and never gets really cold any longer in the winter, except for maybe a week or two at best between December 1 st and March 1 st. Sad if like winter weather. But, alas I live in the past , have a great weekend !!!
  2. frd
    This cloudiness seems a bit of a surprise. Went to get a coffee and all I heard was its cold this morning , LOL Next will be a text from my daughter at Dewey telling me I told her it would be a nice beach day. Same areas socked in by previous clouds and fog the past 5 weeks, are getting it today. To our North in New England looks mostly sunny and to our far SW is suny and very hot. Mount Holly, this morning, commented how cool the NAM for today, was but was going warmer today, but not as warm as yesterday.
  3. frd
    Starting to see the change with the QBO. Wonder the implications, if any, for the winter of 19/20?
  4. frd
    Interesting comment by HM about yesterday's severe event . I believe it is directed at his area, but worth reading over regardless.
  5. frd
    Looking at Sunday do you think there is at least potential, even if not severe, for rainfall in the Northern parts of the sub forum including my area and the Eastern Shore ? Thanks ( and those photoshopped amateurs need to at least pick more realistic "fake " photos to use )
  6. frd
    Yep, just nuts !
  7. frd
    That is saying a lot. Remember that like it was yesterday. Sounded like a freightr train for a good 15 minutes , took down countless 50 to 200 feet Pines on the road in front of our development. Took many days to recover in regards to tree clean-up, and getting power to those who did not have underground electric hook-up. Interesting the enhanced area today, to a degree today fizzled, where as the slight risk become the real deal. Maybe the heating, and more sun, not sure.
  8. frd
    Props to @high risk Good job ! He said the line would intensify for some areas and it did so. Some pretty impressive wind gusts and damage reports comming in now for areas far to my SW.
  9. frd
    For Northern Delaware the incoming line dissapated, maybe a trace of rain at my location. What a dissapointment. Looks like Philly got hit and you guys from Baltimore SW got it good. So then continues the now growing dry spell for the majority of the Northern 1/3 of the Delmarva.
  10. frd
    From Severe briefing NWS Mount Holly released this AM. For the NE part of the sub forum
  11. frd
    I know your insight is much valued. But, maybe we can at least get some rainfall. In this case for the plants.
  12. frd
    Wow, never knew that Moderate Risk only averages once every three years. That explains a lot about the frequency of severe weather in our parts.
  13. frd
    During the last week ocean temps locally have really risen. Still pretty cold for the beach goers this weekend, unless you are brave, young or wasted Wildwood Crest Sea Temperature (Today) 23rd May 2019 16.1°C / 61°F Current weather 16°C / 60°F (clear sky) Wind 3 mph Humidity 59%
  14. frd
    Seems the HRRR idea of the mid afternoon storms having more impact than the Midwest complex slated for evening has gained a "bit" more support. But, as Mount Holly NWS states the Midwest complex needs to be watched Great job by Mount Holly in the discussion this AM. covers everything in detail ! This is just a snippet .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 update: Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across northern portions of the forecast area (generally along and north of I-78) for the next couple hours. Occasional bursts of moderate rain will be the main concern with these AM storms. Regarding the stronger storm potential later in the day 06Z guidance has trended a bit more towards the HRRR solution in the morning discussion e.g. an initial line of stronger storms passing through the area mid-afternoon and then less activity in the evening (generally missing the area to the north). Consequently the line of storms currently extending through the Midwest will bear watching.
  15. frd
    I know, but just mentioning be careful what you wish for. Already my garden is totally dry and top soil is very hard. It is amazing how quickly we lose ground moisture this time of year. Once-a- week rainfall would be awesome, but 14 days in summer in a row without rainfall is not great, if you have agriculture concerns, or have a garden. etc. Need to get my soaker hoses set up and straw or mulch the garden, it is about time shortly. Less rain has one advantage- less mosquittos - I hate them !
  16. frd
    For my area Mount Holly has only about a 40 % chance of storms . A few days ago there was agreement a line would form and move East from I-95 up this way, and head East to the shore. What actually happened was a Dover, DE and further South scenario. I am not sold on a widespread event and think any significant severe is way North. One thing though, surface moisture after the heat and winds and low dews - getting dry. After this next oppurtunity little in the way of rainfall. And the SE is dry and super hot. I have noticed the trend for the dryness spreading West in time as well. Maybe the next wet cycle is June, when exactly , not sure.
  17. frd
    Keep an eye out for Bay temps in the Chessie, with a look like this Bay temps will be rising fast. Wonder how the crab season will be based on eventual rising temps? ( as in maybe too warm ? ) I know too much rain is not good. I thought I heard from a couple guys that crab for a living it looks decent so far.
  18. frd
    My daughter attends the Universtiy of Denver, in here first year towards here Masters Degree. I am jealous, all she sends me are pics of snow and more snow, the blizzard video with 70 mph was surreal. What a winter out there and just NE of Denver are some amazing snow totals. Was really a Denver to Upper Midwest Winter. I believe the snow was to a degree a surpise. I checked her zone forecast yesterday morning and the low was 36 degrees, no mention of snow. ha ha , just crazy times in Denver.
  19. frd
    Mount Holly update at 330 PM NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A very warm/hot and also humid afternoon in progress with some areas closing in on 90 degrees, however the dew points have dropped a little mainly along the I-95 corridor. An upper-level trough will continue to shift eastward through tonight from the Great Lakes, adjacent Canada and New England. Low pressure will track well to our north, however its cold front crosses our region through early this evening. As the cold front arrives, it may combine with a lee side trough. The convection allowing models (CAMs) generally agree that convection continues to develop, especially around the Philadelphia metro southwestward. In addition, some other convection will continue to develop especially near terrain influences and near the residual lee side trough. As of 19z, only some showers with no lightning being detected as convective development is shallow thus far. Visible satellite imagery does show some taller cumulus near and west of I-95. For now went no higher than scattered convection (chance PoPs), as the overall organization should be lacking. The latest mesoscale analysis shows around 500-1000 J/KG of MLCAPE and this should increase to around 1500 J/KG by late afternoon. The 0-3KM shear ranges from 30-40 knots with the strongest across the far northern areas. Some strong storms are anticipated with a few potentially going severe. There is some dry air aloft and combined with steeper low-level lapse rates results in better DCAPE and potentially strong surface winds. Locally strong to damaging wind gusts are possible, however this threat looks to be with any robust convective cores as precipitation loading will enhance the downdraft. There is not a lot of forcing, thus convection will be driven by the airmass and the incoming surface front. Once the cold front shifts offshore early this evening, the convection will end with clearing taking place. Cold air advection increases in the wake of the cold front, and this should keep some wind going from the northwest. This will also result in a cooler overnight, especially as the dew points drop into the 40s for much of the region by daybreak. Low temperatures are mainly a MOS/continuity blend.
  20. frd
    Pretty crazy sounding there
  21. frd
    Dews dropping but storms are popping up to our West . Dewpoint was 67 at 10:00 AM. here, now it is 63 and continues to fall. Humidity 43% Wind Speed SW 16 G 28 mph Barometer 29.79 in (1008.6 mb) Dewpoint 63°F (17°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 89°F (32°C) Last update 20 May 2:51 pm EDT
  22. frd
    I believe I read many schools have been cancelled in the high risk areas today out West due to the nature of the forecast, timing of the storms, and the probabilities of extensive severe weather and tornadoes.
  23. frd
    You think it is related to the Atlantic Ocean cycle and the tendency in recent years for very warm SSTs near and to the West of the very robust WAR ? ( sometimes the entire basin was bath water, aka the year of all those Atlantic Cat 5 hurrinces, including the record for the longest sustained cat 5 ) We have, I believe, set records at 500 mb at times with this feature the last several years, this year's WAR seems to want to go to that eventually.
  24. frd
    Wonder whether the CFS, and its previous forecast of an somewhat normal June temp-wise verifies, after this heat and the next oppurtunity at the end of May ?
  25. frd
    Marginal risk today, here but wow to the High Risk in Oklahoma and Texas. Going to be some incredible videos coming from that area. I am sure some of the best storm chasers in the country are there today, as it has been talked about for over a week, due to the high potential for large and long track d tornadoes.
×
×
  • Create New...