Jump to content

frd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,802

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by frd

  1. frd
    Check this out
  2. frd
    In hindsight wasted so much time on Monday nights ....... I have no expectations about this coming winter and feel great because of it. After this winter's failure how do you even put faith back on the table?
  3. frd
    Are you really concerned ? Certainly my eggplants are waiting for the 80's to take off. Mount Holly now has me at 46 degrees this Tuesday AM. Tomorrow night near dusk might get a windchill ....... LOL
  4. frd
    Its out there in time , but wondering whether we see rainfall from the developing tropical disturbance 91L in a week or more. This links shows you the possible progression of the system and the movement of rainfall. https://blog.weather.us/tropical-disturbance-91l-to-bring-another-round-of-rain-to-the-southern-plains-this-week/
  5. frd
    BWI: 97 DCA: 98 IAD: 96 RIC: 102 Tiebreaker HGR: 96
  6. frd
    Looking forward to the crisp and cool airmas on this Monday and Tuesday. Winds pretty gusty tomorrow though.
  7. frd
    @showmethesnow one last thing too about extreme heat in the near term. I think before we see any 95 + degree and long duration heat waves we will need to dry out the areas to our far West and SW , it has been very wet. And for the time being it will remain wet.
  8. frd
    Reflected on some aspects of this in the June discussion thread showme. Good post ! Agree warmest temps relative to average, and longest duration warmth may indeed happen in the August to even October period. Also feel we are prone to an above average hurricane threat, indirect or otherwise, during the period early September to mid October . Yeah, not saying much as it is the seasonal peak, but could be interesting given the pattern and the expected very warm SSTs in the SW Atlantic and along the Mid Atlantic surf zones.
  9. frd
    The cold pool in the NW Atlantic has only become even more remarkable. Spoke about this a few weeks ago as well. The AO and the NAO have been negative and the SOI today is negative yet again. Seems the first half of June is near normal hopefully temp-wise. At the least hopefully not extreme heat. Some experts state the tropical forcing favors continued high lattitude blocking until mid- June , but potentially could last longer. Where was this in winter? Many seasonal forecasts call for the the highest temps relative to normal in occur August to September, we will see. That has happened alot this decade, and based on the warm SW Atlantic , would think the warmest temps relative to average do happen this September and October. A question to ponder is the current cold pool in the NW Atlantic, some informed weather pros have mentioned this is a signal for a winter 2020 negative NAO. I even came across some research that stated AGW is causing the winter NAO to be positive, I have not heard that one before.
  10. frd
    Yep. Looks awesome for early June. Great hiking weather and anything outdoors. Meanwhile the SOI is really tanking. Daily contribution to SOI calculation -18.37
  11. frd
    My bad, sorry, I did not mean for that video to take up valuable space here, it was meant for banter.
  12. frd
    @mappy I am guessing you missed the majority of the storms mappy ? I think you are located near the PA and MD line out West, and at the recent Southern boundary of the most active severe weather in PA, is that right ? One thing for sure, I did get a lot of rain yesterday, and I missed a warned celll to my South by a few miles.
  13. frd
    Surprising to see the 30 day and the 90 day SOI values going back down, today the SOI was negative again. This part of a post I brought over from the NYC forum, from @donsutherland1 - always a good read from him, but here I focus on the ENSO and the SOI part of his update...... I agree that early to mid June holds promise for more normal temps. Certainly early next week looks much cooler at this time. From Don : <<<< The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. The big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. The SOI was -6.34 today. >>> I checked out https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/ this morning daily contribution to SOI calculation -9.79
  14. frd
    Eastern PA will remember this week for a long time
  15. frd
    Townsend/Warwick aera... Delaware to my South getting hit pretty good right now. To this day still figuring out why so many nasty storms miss to my South , maybe the canal ( C & D ) and waterway, not sure.
  16. frd
    It sure has mappy. In my region last night I watched the movement of a radar indicated tornado in Cumberland county, NJ. as it tracked SE across extreme SW New Jersey. This morning I discovered it must have maintained itself or touched down again further SE over the waters near Fortescue, NJ. A fishing boat captain took this photo. Pretty cool image right there.
  17. frd
    Great insights, thanks .....With all the media coverage by the local news networks, at least in my viewing area last evening, a lot of folks are on edge. Accu-weather was doing detailed play by play on hail cores, trajectories, rotations and other cool visuals. I enjoyed watching it. Its been a while where there have been several days in a row of severe weather in my parts, let alone tornadoes, water spouts and baseball size hail up North.
  18. frd
    Looking at the radar over the Midwest at this time and the general complex's movement I would agree that just around DC., and to it's North would be in for the goods later. And wow to the rainfall potential as well. I actually wonder if some rogue storms hit early near and around Baltimore before the main show later.
  19. frd
    Appears that June starts cooler with continued oppurtunities for rainfall. Also of note, this is somewhat a repeating pattern the last few years, with early June having cooler periods, after very warm Mays. Also of note the recent long duration -SOI SOI Dashboard Latest Southern Oscillation Index values SOI values for 29 May, 2019 Average SOI for last 30 days -6.77 Average SOI for last 90 days -5.28 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.34 From Mount Holly focus the weekend and beyond: In addition, we will need to keep an eye on southern stream energy over the weekend, with some potential for cyclogenesis near the Carolinas. Should that occur, it is possible moisture from that system could become involved in our weather. Finally, we will also have to watch the position of the upper low itself. Should it wobble far enough south, the cool air aloft would favor additional instability showers early next week, though the overall trend should be drier with time. So all in all, while it is difficult to time out individual features, the trends should be cooler weather than we`ve seen, and continued opportunities for occasional showers and storms, though perhaps more in the way of dry weather by early next week. Also notice huge jump in QFP
  20. frd
    In regards to what you were saying @mappy about watches .... I had several Bradford pear trees I had went down a couple years ago, in a storm that did not have even have a warning, quick moving discrete cell, estimated winds of over 70 mph. In 30 years only a few watches for my area yielded a severe event. But, I understand and appreciate the reasoning with watches, and it is always best to be prepared. We are talking life, loved ones and property here. Kudos the the NWS and the SPC for what they do.
  21. frd
    .43 inches here. Looks like Cape May and the Mouth of the Delaware Bay being blasted yet again.
  22. frd
    Things may be moving faster than anticipated - implications for later Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 657 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM Update...The decaying MCS is moving through the area faster than expected. This may lead to an increased severe weather threat later this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
  23. frd
    Missed the heavy storms that went South of me on weekend but this line should make it here. Seems to be getting stronger as it move East.
  24. frd
    Nature's washing machine
  25. frd
    Its a dust bowl out there now
×
×
  • Create New...