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@showmethesnow might make sense to focus on PMM as well Excellent read to learn more https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/your-eight-minute-speed-date-pacific-meridional-mode To me this is a sensible post brought over form 33andrain from member Oglem Posted 11 hours ago Hey everybody, I just wanted to say thank you for sharing information on analogs, it really helped me out. I took a look for years with similar PMM and ENSO. I found 6 years with Jun-Jul-Aug PMM > 4, and they were 1958, 1967, 1986, 1992, 1994, and 2016. 1986 and 1994 were moderate nino winters, so I removed them since this winter is likely going to be a neutral/borderline weak nino winter, although 1994 wasn't too far into moderate territory. Here's the result: Looks like the core of the cold will be in the Upper Midwest, with some cold in the NE and a SE ridge flexing a little bit too. This is only looking at PMM/ENSO, though. Assuming the PMM stays positive, it has the strongest correlation coefficient for the Northeast and Southwest, so it does seem like it would contribute to cold in the NE. Additionally, the PMM is related to Central Pacific warming, so it should be a factor in our favor going into the winter .

Your thoughts echo some others , I believe Benchmark's possibly. He even thinks a marginal weak Nino is possible. I did read Raindance who posts on the Nino extensively mentioning Nino 4 corresponds to a warm December in the East, I was not aware of this. But, again, are other players going to appear to maybe shake things up in December to make it colder. Time will tell. from raindance These are the closest Nino 4 years for September (29.1C-29.5C). They are all El Ninos - but keep in mind Nino 4 is warming much more rapidly than the other Nino zones. That's part of why you guys in the East have had such trouble getting a cold December since Nino 4 is correlated to December in the East for temps. 1989-2018 Septembers in Nino 4 are 28.75C on average, compared to 28.11C in 1950-1979. If the 2017 Nino 4 reading was applied to the older average, it'd be +0.6C, but a La Nina still developed, one that had the coldest Nino 1.2 readings for a while: 30 to 40 years in several months. My interpretation is if we had data for 2005-2035 in Nino 4, you'd find it was only +0.2C, instead of +0.55C. There are plenty of years when Nino 4 is +0.2C against the "centered climate average", that do not become El Ninos.

The EPS concurs or should I say it did as of yesterday.

There are differences as you mention @showmethesnow in the Pac Take this for example below as posted by Ben

Nice post. Seems we are faced with various extreme drivers of the pattern the last several years and how they interact together, or which takes over if you will, gives us our sensible weather. Many unknowns at this time still. How will the extreme + IOD effect the winter, what about the tropical forcing and the progression of the QBO. So much to think about. Very fascinating. I liked the way Isotherm describes his method of looking at the future weather and it truly is a multi-step process with one step determining the next and then weighing things out and knowing what to choose and what not too.

QBO

Over 40,000 views , hmm... decent I think , imagine when the blizzard is in site :-)

Latest word on the street is JB got so desperate and frustrated by @WxUSAF mocking him that JB paid Julian Assange a huge sum of money and a ton of high-carb cheese cakes to hack the CFS model physics to show his top looks for this winter ..... 02- 03, 09 -10, 95-96 and 77-78 .

Sorry to hear that. Once in a while I get something that states I am rate limited, but after that I simply reload the app and then it works fine. Maybe just do a little more research and see what you can find out for a cause. There has to be a reason, but it is annoying. Good luck !

Wonder if this continues to ramp up, or as Judah mentions we get stall or a reversal. Regardless, nice to see some snowfall up North.

A Nino-ish look is on the way

Wonder how this forecast and the MJO progression falls in line with HM's post a few days ago.

That's awesome news. Not a huge move, but a move at least, and not a stall. And, we still have time as well .

Some interesting changes in the NAO and AO domains from a few days ago. Meanwhile as this happens we are rapidly increasing NH snow cover. I know this -NAO mean chilly and rain, but what if this cycles continue in the colder months ? If this happens in October, versus say July and August, maybe it offers a higher quality signal of a - NAO for DJF. Seems we might be near or entering a longer cycle - AO and -NAO state.

I am not so sure I agree here with Pastelok, I mean all he is saying to me is climo and that garbage about a mix of rain and snow. Personally I can see an earlier start to winter. OK, so lately winter arrives late in these parts but does past consistency = future reliability? This is from the Accu Weather Winter forecast: https://www.chinookobserver.com/news/local/accuweather-special-report-u-s-winter-forecast/article_31f71be2-e602-11e9-921b-1f42c85224b3.html Northeast Despite a few cold spells across the Northeast during autumn, winter’s chill won’t arrive until at least the end of 2019. Pastelok said: “I think you’re going to see a touch of winter come in in December. But I think it’s full force will hold out until after the New Year.” Once the wintry weather does get underway, an active season will be in store. “Whether or not it’s snowstorms, ice storms or mixed events, I do feel this is going to be an active year for the Northeast,” he said. Above-normal snowfall could be in store for areas from New York City to Boston. Meanwhile, cities farther south, including Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, will be more likely to see a mix of rain and snow.

This is another interesting tidbit when used as a roll over to the months of November and even more so December Additional resource link from HM http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/Data.html

I know, but just one part of the drivers for the upcoming winter. I am interested more so because of IOD combined with other features. I don't see those years as analogs regardless.

Not sure what the Euro shows but the WPC has this . Seems the trend the last 5 months has been for NE PA and NW NJ ( and the upper NE ) to get most of the good rains. That map makes me very sad.

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.

I think I understand the implied meaning

Still climbing Up

Great question. I know a while back there was a post about the Fall temps in the East, and the above normal and record temps were almost in a perfect orientation along the Western periphery of the WAR. This makes a lot of sense because this decade the Fall WAR has been robust and the SST much above normal. Also, taken into account the higher dew points keeping overnight lows higher. Seems that the new normal is the less hot, versus below climo. The case can be made that September is now the 4th full fledged month of real summer. The theory I heard was low sea ice causes a delay in cooling off things to the North of us and hence the summer season is extended but then that delayed reaction combined with the tendency of blocking to develop later in the winter has caused the month of March to be more wintry than December. And hence sometimes April being very cold. On a side note, a case can be made this year that the hybrid lag of the Nino and the atmospheric Nina might lead to a an early start to winter.

From bluewave over at the NYC thread ...... simply remarkable, the ever increasing temps for Sept. Even though this represents his area I am sure it holds for ours as well.

Seems that evolution would support snowfall over large portions of Canada. Here is the EPS for fun.

Will be interesting to see the effect on the + IOD